Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
312 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Main forecast concerns in the short term period are coverage of
afternoon/evening convection and influence, if any, from weak wedge
front/sfc ridging moving in late tonight. Afternoon convection
already in progress as we've seen last few days. Coverage highest in
eastcentral GA near KAHN and just outside of far NW Georgia east of
KCHA. Convection complex in northern FL may have been helpful by
inhibiting convection over middle GA this afternoon. Have tweaked
PoPs down some there. Expect convection to be quite strong with a
few likely becoming severe, lightning, damaging winds and hail up to
1 inch are the primary threats based on observed SBCAPE 2000-3000
J/kg and very weak vertical wind shear. Convection should diminish
quickly after 01Z and mostly dissipated after 04Z, though isolated
SHRA could linger overnight.

Weak wedge front expected to move into NE Georgia by 06Z. Can't rule
out weak/elevated convection developing along or behind front as
hinted at by some hires guidance. Nothing too strong or widespread.
Another round of TSRA likely Tuesday afternoon/evening as weak NW
flow still in place though somewhat weaker than this afternoon.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Did not make any fundamental changes to the Long-Term Forecast
trends with this cycle. Still looking at a diurnally favored
convective cycle each day through the period. Broad, weak upper
trough over the region through the work week yields to the building
upper ridge over the the southern plains by this weekend and into
early next week. However, with ample moisture remaining over the
region, ridge does not look sufficiently dominant to stifle all
afternoon/evening convection.

20

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
/Issued 348 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018/
Guidance continues to indicate a continued moist/tropical regime
through the fcst period with daily diurnally driven showers and
storms. Difficult to pin point any other period of enhanced
convection though some weak impulses from the north could help
focus. Models are in agreement with some amplified upper ridging
just west of the region for the weekend, which could limit some
coverage but not thinking strong enough to suppress the overall
chance of development lower than 30-40 percent. Each afternoon and
evening could see a few strong to severe storms similar to what
has been the story in the short term recently. Not much variation
in temps either, with daytime max values mainly in the upper 80s
to low 90s.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Areas of TSRA with SCT035-040 with areas of BKN coverage this
afternoon and evening, which should diminish after 02Z with greatest
coverage from now through 22-23Z. Sfc winds will become E at 4-8kt
after 08Z at KAHN and 10Z at Atlanta metro airports then ESE
Tuesday. With this back door cold front, will also see near IFR cigs
behind them which will break up after 15Z. Middle GA airports
including KCSG and KMCN will only see brief period of near IFR cigs
around 13-15Z. Another round of TSRA likely Tuesday afternoon and
have include Prob30 at KATL after 19Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on TSRA likelihood and coverage.
Medium on IFR cigs Tuesday morning.
High on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  82  68  89 /  50  40  30  50
Atlanta         70  85  70  88 /  60  50  50  50
Blairsville     63  79  64  83 /  50  50  30  50
Cartersville    68  86  69  87 /  50  50  40  50
Columbus        71  88  71  89 /  50  60  40  60
Gainesville     68  81  68  87 /  50  40  40  50
Macon           70  87  70  90 /  50  60  50  60
Rome            68  87  69  88 /  50  50  40  50
Peachtree City  69  86  69  88 /  60  60  50  60
Vidalia         72  88  72  90 /  50  70  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-120745-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon into this
evening. A few storms could be strong to severe, with the main
hazards being strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong to severe
each day with strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather and flooding
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta

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