Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
312 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Main forecast concerns in the short term period are coverage of
afternoon/evening convection and influence, if any, from weak wedge
front/sfc ridging moving in late tonight. Afternoon convection
already in progress as we've seen last few days. Coverage highest in
eastcentral GA near KAHN and just outside of far NW Georgia east of
KCHA. Convection complex in northern FL may have been helpful by
inhibiting convection over middle GA this afternoon. Have tweaked
PoPs down some there. Expect convection to be quite strong with a
few likely becoming severe, lightning, damaging winds and hail up to
1 inch are the primary threats based on observed SBCAPE 2000-3000
J/kg and very weak vertical wind shear. Convection should diminish
quickly after 01Z and mostly dissipated after 04Z, though isolated
SHRA could linger overnight.

Weak wedge front expected to move into NE Georgia by 06Z. Can't rule
out weak/elevated convection developing along or behind front as
hinted at by some hires guidance. Nothing too strong or widespread.
Another round of TSRA likely Tuesday afternoon/evening as weak NW
flow still in place though somewhat weaker than this afternoon.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Did not make any fundamental changes to the Long-Term Forecast
trends with this cycle. Still looking at a diurnally favored
convective cycle each day through the period. Broad, weak upper
trough over the region through the work week yields to the building
upper ridge over the the southern plains by this weekend and into
early next week. However, with ample moisture remaining over the
region, ridge does not look sufficiently dominant to stifle all
afternoon/evening convection.

20

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
/Issued 348 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018/
Guidance continues to indicate a continued moist/tropical regime
through the fcst period with daily diurnally driven showers and
storms. Difficult to pin point any other period of enhanced
convection though some weak impulses from the north could help
focus. Models are in agreement with some amplified upper ridging
just west of the region for the weekend, which could limit some
coverage but not thinking strong enough to suppress the overall
chance of development lower than 30-40 percent. Each afternoon and
evening could see a few strong to severe storms similar to what
has been the story in the short term recently. Not much variation
in temps either, with daytime max values mainly in the upper 80s
to low 90s.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Areas of TSRA with SCT035-040 with areas of BKN coverage this
afternoon and evening, which should diminish after 02Z with greatest
coverage from now through 22-23Z. Sfc winds will become E at 4-8kt
after 08Z at KAHN and 10Z at Atlanta metro airports then ESE
Tuesday. With this back door cold front, will also see near IFR cigs
behind them which will break up after 15Z. Middle GA airports
including KCSG and KMCN will only see brief period of near IFR cigs
around 13-15Z. Another round of TSRA likely Tuesday afternoon and
have include Prob30 at KATL after 19Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on TSRA likelihood and coverage.
Medium on IFR cigs Tuesday morning.
High on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  82  68  89 /  50  40  30  50
Atlanta         70  85  70  88 /  60  50  50  50
Blairsville     63  79  64  83 /  50  50  30  50
Cartersville    68  86  69  87 /  50  50  40  50
Columbus        71  88  71  89 /  50  60  40  60
Gainesville     68  81  68  87 /  50  40  40  50
Macon           70  87  70  90 /  50  60  50  60
Rome            68  87  69  88 /  50  50  40  50
Peachtree City  69  86  69  88 /  60  60  50  60
Vidalia         72  88  72  90 /  50  70  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-120745-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon into this
evening. A few storms could be strong to severe, with the main
hazards being strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong to severe
each day with strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather and flooding
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
431 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ032-033-045-112100-
De Kalb GA-North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-
431 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DE KALB...NORTH
FULTON AND NORTHEASTERN COBB COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 431 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Mount Bethel, or near
Marietta. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Marietta, Decatur, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Smyrna, Dunwoody,
Chamblee, Doraville, Tucker, North Decatur, Fair Oaks, North Atlanta,
North Druid Hills, Midtown, Grant Park-Zoo Atlanta, Druid Hills,
Mount Bethel, Vinings and Sweet Auburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3405 8442 3397 8426 3396 8428 3392 8426
      3387 8420 3371 8438 3392 8457
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 313DEG 4KT 3394 8444

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
433 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S CLEVELAND           34.57N  83.77W
06/11/2018                   WHITE              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WHITE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS A TREE DOWN
            ON POWERLINES ON DAYBREAK ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800321

KOVACIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
442 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N SUMMERVILLE         34.50N  85.35W
06/11/2018                   CHATTOOGA          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS A TREE DOWN WITH LINES IN IT
            ON PEACH BLOSSOM LANE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800322

KOVACIK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
443 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ012-019-020-112130-
Gordon GA-Bartow GA-Floyd GA-
443 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GORDON...
NORTHWESTERN BARTOW AND EASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 443 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Pinson, or 8 miles
northeast of Rome. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome, Calhoun, Adairsville, Kingston, Plainville, Shannon, Pinson and
Folsom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3431 8522 3447 8512 3441 8479 3415 8499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 298DEG 4KT 3436 8510

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
448 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW TRION             34.51N  85.32W
06/11/2018                   CHATTOOGA          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE LIMB WAS DOWN IN THE ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION
            OF HWY 27 AND GREESON ST

&&

CORRECTED FATALITIES...INJURIES...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800319

THIEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
449 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ060-061-072-073-112130-
Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Hancock GA-Jones GA-
449 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PUTNAM...NORTHWESTERN
BALDWIN...WESTERN HANCOCK AND NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 530
PM EDT...

At 449 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Warfield, or near
Eatonton...moving south at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Milledgeville, Eatonton, Meriwether, Ethridge, Plant Harlee Branch,
Resseaus Crossroads, Warfield, Blountsville and Oconee Springs Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3329 8351 3337 8326 3319 8313 3310 8330
      3309 8348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 341DEG 5KT 3327 8339

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH