Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
312 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Main forecast concerns in the short term period are coverage of
afternoon/evening convection and influence, if any, from weak wedge
front/sfc ridging moving in late tonight. Afternoon convection
already in progress as we've seen last few days. Coverage highest in
eastcentral GA near KAHN and just outside of far NW Georgia east of
KCHA. Convection complex in northern FL may have been helpful by
inhibiting convection over middle GA this afternoon. Have tweaked
PoPs down some there. Expect convection to be quite strong with a
few likely becoming severe, lightning, damaging winds and hail up to
1 inch are the primary threats based on observed SBCAPE 2000-3000
J/kg and very weak vertical wind shear. Convection should diminish
quickly after 01Z and mostly dissipated after 04Z, though isolated
SHRA could linger overnight.

Weak wedge front expected to move into NE Georgia by 06Z. Can't rule
out weak/elevated convection developing along or behind front as
hinted at by some hires guidance. Nothing too strong or widespread.
Another round of TSRA likely Tuesday afternoon/evening as weak NW
flow still in place though somewhat weaker than this afternoon.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Did not make any fundamental changes to the Long-Term Forecast
trends with this cycle. Still looking at a diurnally favored
convective cycle each day through the period. Broad, weak upper
trough over the region through the work week yields to the building
upper ridge over the the southern plains by this weekend and into
early next week. However, with ample moisture remaining over the
region, ridge does not look sufficiently dominant to stifle all
afternoon/evening convection.

20

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
/Issued 348 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018/
Guidance continues to indicate a continued moist/tropical regime
through the fcst period with daily diurnally driven showers and
storms. Difficult to pin point any other period of enhanced
convection though some weak impulses from the north could help
focus. Models are in agreement with some amplified upper ridging
just west of the region for the weekend, which could limit some
coverage but not thinking strong enough to suppress the overall
chance of development lower than 30-40 percent. Each afternoon and
evening could see a few strong to severe storms similar to what
has been the story in the short term recently. Not much variation
in temps either, with daytime max values mainly in the upper 80s
to low 90s.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Areas of TSRA with SCT035-040 with areas of BKN coverage this
afternoon and evening, which should diminish after 02Z with greatest
coverage from now through 22-23Z. Sfc winds will become E at 4-8kt
after 08Z at KAHN and 10Z at Atlanta metro airports then ESE
Tuesday. With this back door cold front, will also see near IFR cigs
behind them which will break up after 15Z. Middle GA airports
including KCSG and KMCN will only see brief period of near IFR cigs
around 13-15Z. Another round of TSRA likely Tuesday afternoon and
have include Prob30 at KATL after 19Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on TSRA likelihood and coverage.
Medium on IFR cigs Tuesday morning.
High on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  82  68  89 /  50  40  30  50
Atlanta         70  85  70  88 /  60  50  50  50
Blairsville     63  79  64  83 /  50  50  30  50
Cartersville    68  86  69  87 /  50  50  40  50
Columbus        71  88  71  89 /  50  60  40  60
Gainesville     68  81  68  87 /  50  40  40  50
Macon           70  87  70  90 /  50  60  50  60
Rome            68  87  69  88 /  50  50  40  50
Peachtree City  69  86  69  88 /  60  60  50  60
Vidalia         72  88  72  90 /  50  70  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-120745-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon into this
evening. A few storms could be strong to severe, with the main
hazards being strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong to severe
each day with strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather and flooding
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
449 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ060-061-072-073-112130-
Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Hancock GA-Jones GA-
449 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PUTNAM...NORTHWESTERN
BALDWIN...WESTERN HANCOCK AND NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 530
PM EDT...

At 449 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Warfield, or near
Eatonton...moving south at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Milledgeville, Eatonton, Meriwether, Ethridge, Plant Harlee Branch,
Resseaus Crossroads, Warfield, Blountsville and Oconee Springs Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3329 8351 3337 8326 3319 8313 3310 8330
      3309 8348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 341DEG 5KT 3327 8339

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
456 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ008-112130-
Union GA-
456 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR UNION COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 455 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Blairsville...moving
south at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Blairsville, Owltown, Vogel State Park, Track Rock, Jones Creek,
Woods Hole Shelter, Blood Mountain Shelter, Gaddistown and Low Gap
Shelter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3479 8381 3477 8383 3474 8382 3472 8389
      3474 8394 3472 8398 3470 8399 3467 8410
      3472 8411 3473 8409 3480 8409 3480 8412
      3486 8413 3488 8411 3491 8412 3496 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 341DEG 5KT 3487 8401

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
458 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ053-112130-
Coweta GA-
458 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COWETA COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM EDT...

At 458 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Handy, or 9 miles
northeast of Franklin...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Newnan, Grantville, Luthersville, Moreland, East Newnan, Plant Yates,
Arnco-Sargent, Handy, Madras and Powers Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3344 8498 3346 8498 3344 8494 3345 8492
      3347 8490 3348 8473 3322 8475 3322 8485
      3321 8486 3323 8487 3322 8490 3324 8495
      3328 8495 3328 8496 3343 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 280DEG 8KT 3338 8498

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
501 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ045-046-048-057-112145-
De Kalb GA-Rockdale GA-Newton GA-Henry GA-
501 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DE KALB...
ROCKDALE...WESTERN NEWTON AND NORTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 545
PM EDT...

At 501 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Arabia Mountain, or
near Conyers...moving southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Conyers, Covington, Oxford, Lithonia, Porterdale, Ola, Magnet, Almon,
Richardson Park, Arabia Mountain, Hidden Valley Park, Panola Mountain
State Park, Kelleytown and Oak Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3372 8415 3364 8384 3341 8401 3359 8425
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 301DEG 8KT 3363 8413

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
512 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ020-030-031-112200-
Polk GA-Bartow GA-Paulding GA-
512 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN POLK...SOUTHWESTERN
BARTOW AND PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Taylorsville, or 10
miles southwest of Cartersville...moving south at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cartersville, Dallas, Rockmart, Euharlee, Hiram, Aragon, Braswell,
Taylorsville, Yorkville, Burnt Hickory Ridge, Van Wert, Stilesboro
and New Hope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3410 8505 3416 8504 3419 8487 3388 8474
      3383 8504 3390 8504 3391 8506 3410 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 348DEG 12KT 3410 8496

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
513 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ030-031-041-112200-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-Paulding GA-
513 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK...EASTERN
HARALSON AND SOUTHWESTERN PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Eubank Lake, or 9
miles northeast of Buchanan...moving southeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Buchanan, Bremen, Rockmart, Yorkville, Draketown, Eubank Lake,
Antioch and Van Wert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3402 8505 3384 8486 3379 8495 3381 8505
      3374 8505 3370 8514 3393 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 329DEG 5KT 3392 8511

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH