Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Des Moines, IA

410 
WWUS53 KDMX 062143
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
443 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

IAC025-027-073-062200-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-180606T2200Z/
Greene IA-Calhoun IA-Carroll IA-
443 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GREENE...SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN AND NORTHEASTERN
CARROLL COUNTIES...

At 443 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lake City, or 9
miles south of Rockwell City, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Churdan, Farnhamville, Lohrville, Lidderdale, Lanesboro, Somers,
Rinard and Hobbs County Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 9487 4221 9474 4226 9470 4232 9470
      4243 9441 4210 9440 4210 9488
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 323DEG 16KT 4226 9462 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Beerends

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
254 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Wednesday/
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Iowa is just downstream of the upper ridge axis across the Plains in
an area of good warm advection and moisture advection.  Strong
instability has developed into the western half of Iowa this
afternoon as temperatures and dewpoints have quickly risen. Surface
boundary is pushing into northern Iowa with a weak shortwave
crossing through South Dakota along with some associated forcing.
This setup is the main concern in the short term with the potential
for severe convection late this afternoon into tonight. Latest GOES-
16 visible imagery is showing agitated cumulus near Storm Lake
and cap is likely to break within an hour or two as the updrafts
continue to strengthen and the front approaches. Given the strong
instability, rapid development is expected once initiation occurs.
However, shear is modest at best with effective bulk shear around
25- 35kts across much of the area. Despite this lack of stronger
shear, the strong instability should be more than sufficient for
severe hail production. Downdraft CAPES are also robust with
values of 1200-1400 adding the wind threat component as well. Any
tornado potential is likely to be early in the event with initial
strong updrafts stretching out any available surface vorticity
near the boundary. As gusts fronts consolidate into the evening,
the system is likely to become a forward propagating line moving
southeast through central into southern Iowa during the evening
with hail and winds the main threat. Heavy rains will also occur
given PWATs approaching 1.5 inches although as the system become
more progressive, the overall threat for flash flooding is
expected to remain limited, although urban areas are always
concerning in high rate events.

This convective complex is expected to pass out of southern Iowa
this evening.  However, main low level flow will continue to be
focused just west of the forecast area in Nebraska as southeast
South Dakota overnight with convection continuing in those
locations.  Upper flow will likely carry some of this convection
into western areas overnight with additional rainfall and some
limited severe threat persisting through sunrise.

Another round of convection is expected from later Thursday
afternoon into Friday morning as a shortwave passes through the
Plains and toward the state.  There remains the potential for severe
weather during this time along with heavy rain although detail
remain somewhat sketchy as the convection tonight into early
Thursday will impact Thursday afternoons outcome.  The potential for
additional periods of convection persist into the weekend and
especially later Monday into Monday night as the main shortwave
passes through the state.  Temperatures will be at the mercy of
convection, although with no push of colder air until early next
week, readings will remain mostly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon/
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Morning convection has waned and focus is now on redevelopment
this afternoon, likely toward 21z along or south of Highway 20.
Storms will then propagate southeast or south with uncertainty
still around on exact timing and impacts, but likely will be
gusty and variable winds and restrictions to visibility and
ceilings. These storms should exit the area later this evening,
but may see new storms approach from the west after 6z, which is
not currently reflected in the official TAFs with low confidence.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Ansorge

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
329 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-072030-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
329 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are developing this
afternoon and will continue into tonight. The main threats will
be damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, large hail, and heavy rain.
An isolated tornado or two is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

An active weather pattern will continue into the weekend. A few
severe storms are possible on Thursday and Friday with the main
threat expected to be hail and winds. The heavy rain potential
also exists Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters might be needed this afternoon into tonight and at times
Thursday into this weekend.

Ansorge

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1100 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     HAIL             4 SSE FONDA             42.53N 94.81W
06/06/2018  E1.00 INCH       CALHOUN            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL
            AT THEIR HOME.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
321 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             5 ENE FONDA             42.63N 94.76W
06/06/2018  M1.00 INCH       POCAHONTAS         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ANSORGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
350 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             FORT DODGE              42.51N 94.18W
06/06/2018  E0.88 INCH       WEBSTER            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ANSORGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
355 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HAIL             1 SSE FORT DODGE        42.49N 94.17W
06/06/2018  M1.00 INCH       WEBSTER            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF HALF INCH HAIL WITH QUARTER SIZED
            HAIL NOW AS WELL.

&&

ANSORGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
404 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             1 NE FORT DODGE         42.52N 94.17W
06/06/2018  E0.88 INCH       WEBSTER            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

&&

RD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
418 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             3 NW DUNCOMBE           42.50N 94.04W
06/06/2018  M1.00 INCH       WEBSTER            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ANSORGE