Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Des Moines, IA

714 
WWUS53 KDMX 061231
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
731 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

IAC151-061241-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-180606T1300Z/
Pocahontas IA-
731 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN POCAHONTAS COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4260 9438 4234 9403 4226 9417 4221 9440
      4246 9457
TIME...MOT...LOC 1231Z 322DEG 23KT 4246 9437 

$$

IAC025-187-061300-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-180606T1300Z/
Webster IA-Calhoun IA-
731 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER AND NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES...

At 731 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of
Manson, or 10 miles west of Fort Dodge, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Gowrie, Otho, Lehigh, Callender, Farnhamville, Harcourt, Barnum,
Moorland, Somers, Knierim, Rinard, Lizard Creek State Recreation Area
and Dolliver Memorial State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4260 9438 4234 9403 4226 9417 4221 9440
      4246 9457
TIME...MOT...LOC 1231Z 322DEG 23KT 4246 9437 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Curtis

834 
WWUS53 KDMX 061245
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
745 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

IAC025-187-061300-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-180606T1300Z/
Webster IA-Calhoun IA-
745 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN WEBSTER AND EAST CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTIES...

At 745 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Gowrie, or 10 miles southwest of Fort Dodge, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Gowrie, Otho, Lehigh, Callender, Farnhamville, Harcourt, Moorland,
Somers, Rinard, Lizard Creek State Recreation Area and Dolliver
Memorial State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4234 9403 4226 9417 4221 9440 4238 9452
      4253 9428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1245Z 322DEG 23KT 4239 9429 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Curtis

390 
WWUS53 KDMX 061255
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
755 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

IAC025-187-061304-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-180606T1300Z/
Webster IA-Calhoun IA-
755 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN WEBSTER AND EAST
CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits, and is beginning to exit the warned area. Therefore, the 
warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4234 9403 4226 9417 4221 9440 4238 9452
      4253 9428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 322DEG 23KT 4235 9424 

$$

Curtis

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
639 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Tuesday/
Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Overall the pattern will change little through the valid period.
There will be varied degrees of upper level ridging into the MO
Valley through at least early next week when a deeper long wave
trough will pass through the NW CONUS into the northern Plains
finally bringing a cold frontal passage. This pattern, with
anomalously high heights and moisture parameters, will bring
extended, intermittent thunderstorm chances and elevated but not
extreme heat and humidity. Confidence in convective details will
be low with models depicting varied strengths and timing of short
waves topping the ridge with little predictability of mesoscale
features as well, especially outside of near term trends.

The current situation has an MCS tracking through MN driven by
appreciable thermodynamic and kinematic forcing from a previous
short wave, which has also induced an MCV in the cluster. Outflow
is just moving through Sioux Falls at 08z and will likely
continue to move east across northern Iowa. This progression, and
a warm front from just north of Algona to south of Waterloo, will
result in low temperature confidence north today. With the thermal
ridge right into this area, the sharp southern turn of
isotherms/thickness into IA, and similar Corfidi vectors due to
the Siouxland low level jet, suggests at least part of the MCS
will clip northern IA this morning along the warm front. This is
depicted by several convection allowing models /CAMs/ and
resultant HREF probs and also supported by recent ESRL HRRR runs
not in that ensemble.

Confidence is low in how this plays out into the afternoon
however. The 05z ESRL HRRR performing well now shows little re-
development through 23z but other CAMs are quite bullish on re-
development 18z-21z. Where this would occur is uncertain due to
varied southern progressions of the outflow, but if it did occur
there is certainly a conditional threat of severe weather. Most
models suggest moderate to extreme instability into peak heating
with MLCAPEs at or exceeding 4K j/kg. This would support a large
hail threat and high values of DCAPE and 3km delta theta-e suggest
an elevated wind potential as well, which seasonal pattern
recognition and HREF wind probs support too. An isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out either with this degree of instability, at
least until the cold pool matures. Thus the current SPC Slight
Risk is certainly warranted and could very well end up higher if
non-ESRL HRRR runs come to pass.

Confidence into tonight is not great either with cold pool driven
progression to our south and west and more anchored further
development along a lingering synoptic front in warm advection
regime farther north into us both possible, and even a combination
of both. Thursday is problematic as well with models depicting
varied strengths of a short wave crossing the MO Valley: ECMWF
weaker farther north and domestics stronger farther south. This
low confidence in timing and location extends into the weekend too
but generally nocturnal convection is more favored based on
climatology/pattern and weak, messy surface flow. A severe threat,
better determined in the coming days, will persist with plenty of
instability available and adequate shear, especially north,
closer in proximity to the westerlies. This pattern should stay in
place until the aforementioned upstream amplification changes our
regime.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning/
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

The primary concern will be how convection affects things through
the period, but confidence is low. The current NW Iowa cluster will
likely affect KFOD through 15z, but otherwise confidence in
regeneration and thunder is low due to outflow boundaries. Thus
have only mentioned VCSH wording until confidence in timing and
location increases rather than a prolonged inclusion of thunder.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...Small
AVIATION...Small

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
456 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-071000-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
456 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated today
into tonight. The main threat is likely to be large hail and
damaging winds. Heavy rain is also possible with these storms
today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

An active weather pattern looks to persist Thursday into the
weekend. A few severe storms are possible on Thursday and Friday
where the main threat appears to be hail and winds. The heavy rain
potential also exists Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters might be needed Today and at times Thursday into the
weekend.

KLP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
459 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

IAZ004-005-015-061100-
Palo Alto IA-Kossuth IA-Emmet IA-
459 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

...Strong Storms Entering Northwest Iowa...

At 455 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Trimont Minnesota, to Okoboji, to near
Archer. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Estherville around 520 AM CDT.
  High Lake around 540 AM CDT.
  Emmetsburg around 555 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Ayrshire, Kearney
State Park, Curlew, Graettinger, Fort Defiance State Park, Ledyard,
Lost Island Lake State Park, Lone Rock, Armstrong and Cylinder.

LAT...LON 4350 9397 4347 9397 4308 9449 4291 9483
      4291 9492 4350 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 0955Z 299DEG 28KT 4373 9469 4339 9520 4308 9581

Small

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
610 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

IAZ005-015-023-024-061215-
Humboldt IA-Palo Alto IA-Kossuth IA-Pocahontas IA-
610 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

...Strong Storms Continue over Northwest Iowa...

At 610 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles east of Emmetsburg to near Truesdale.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pocahontas, Dakota City, Humboldt, Laurens, Rush Lake, West Bend,
Fonda, Rolfe, Whittemore, Gilmore City, Livermore, Corwith, Bode,
Mallard, Lu Verne, Renwick, Palmer, Havelock, Rutland and Cylinder.

LAT...LON 4299 9397 4281 9397 4264 9428 4264 9444
      4256 9445 4256 9475 4261 9492 4292 9492
      4312 9452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1110Z 289DEG 32KT 4306 9450 4275 9512

Small