Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Des Moines, IA

915 
WWUS53 KDMX 062240
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
540 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

IAC153-062315-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-180606T2315Z/
Polk IA-
540 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR POLK COUNTY...

At 540 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles southeast of Huxley to near Big Creek Lake,
moving south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Des Moines, West Des Moines, Ankeny, Urbandale, Johnston, Clive,
Altoona, Norwalk, Pleasant Hill, Grimes, Windsor Heights, Carlisle,
Bondurant, Polk City, Saylorville, Mitchellville, Granger, Southridge
Mall, Saylorville Lake and Adventureland Amusement Park.

People attending SA--
Principal Charity Classic should seek safe shelter immediately!

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 67 and 72, and between mile
markers 87 and 101.
 Interstate 80 between mile markers 122 and 149.
 Interstate 235 between mile markers 1 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 9379 4160 9379 4160 9380 4186 9381
      4186 9335 4160 9335 4160 9333 4151 9333
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 347DEG 32KT 4183 9348 4182 9380 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Beerends

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
254 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Wednesday/
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Iowa is just downstream of the upper ridge axis across the Plains in
an area of good warm advection and moisture advection.  Strong
instability has developed into the western half of Iowa this
afternoon as temperatures and dewpoints have quickly risen. Surface
boundary is pushing into northern Iowa with a weak shortwave
crossing through South Dakota along with some associated forcing.
This setup is the main concern in the short term with the potential
for severe convection late this afternoon into tonight. Latest GOES-
16 visible imagery is showing agitated cumulus near Storm Lake
and cap is likely to break within an hour or two as the updrafts
continue to strengthen and the front approaches. Given the strong
instability, rapid development is expected once initiation occurs.
However, shear is modest at best with effective bulk shear around
25- 35kts across much of the area. Despite this lack of stronger
shear, the strong instability should be more than sufficient for
severe hail production. Downdraft CAPES are also robust with
values of 1200-1400 adding the wind threat component as well. Any
tornado potential is likely to be early in the event with initial
strong updrafts stretching out any available surface vorticity
near the boundary. As gusts fronts consolidate into the evening,
the system is likely to become a forward propagating line moving
southeast through central into southern Iowa during the evening
with hail and winds the main threat. Heavy rains will also occur
given PWATs approaching 1.5 inches although as the system become
more progressive, the overall threat for flash flooding is
expected to remain limited, although urban areas are always
concerning in high rate events.

This convective complex is expected to pass out of southern Iowa
this evening.  However, main low level flow will continue to be
focused just west of the forecast area in Nebraska as southeast
South Dakota overnight with convection continuing in those
locations.  Upper flow will likely carry some of this convection
into western areas overnight with additional rainfall and some
limited severe threat persisting through sunrise.

Another round of convection is expected from later Thursday
afternoon into Friday morning as a shortwave passes through the
Plains and toward the state.  There remains the potential for severe
weather during this time along with heavy rain although detail
remain somewhat sketchy as the convection tonight into early
Thursday will impact Thursday afternoons outcome.  The potential for
additional periods of convection persist into the weekend and
especially later Monday into Monday night as the main shortwave
passes through the state.  Temperatures will be at the mercy of
convection, although with no push of colder air until early next
week, readings will remain mostly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon/
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Morning convection has waned and focus is now on redevelopment
this afternoon, likely toward 21z along or south of Highway 20.
Storms will then propagate southeast or south with uncertainty
still around on exact timing and impacts, but likely will be
gusty and variable winds and restrictions to visibility and
ceilings. These storms should exit the area later this evening,
but may see new storms approach from the west after 6z, which is
not currently reflected in the official TAFs with low confidence.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Ansorge

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
329 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-072030-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
329 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are developing this
afternoon and will continue into tonight. The main threats will
be damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, large hail, and heavy rain.
An isolated tornado or two is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

An active weather pattern will continue into the weekend. A few
severe storms are possible on Thursday and Friday with the main
threat expected to be hail and winds. The heavy rain potential
also exists Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters might be needed this afternoon into tonight and at times
Thursday into this weekend.

Ansorge

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
456 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             1 E BOONE               42.05N 93.86W
06/06/2018  E0.25 INCH       BOONE              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
511 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     HAIL             TRAER                   42.19N 92.46W
06/06/2018  E2.00 INCH       TAMA               IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIA KWWL-TV VIEWER.

&&

ANSORGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
515 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     HAIL             GILBERT                 42.11N 93.65W
06/06/2018  E0.75 INCH       STORY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
518 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             4 E BOONE               42.05N 93.80W
06/06/2018  E1.00 INCH       BOONE              IA   PUBLIC

            GENERALLY QUARTER SIZED HAIL FALLING IN THE
            LAST 5 MINUTES. VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

ANSORGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
523 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     HAIL             WESTSIDE                42.08N 95.10W
06/06/2018  E1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ANSORGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
536 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     CONRAD                  42.22N 92.87W
06/06/2018  E65 MPH          GRUNDY             IA   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZED HAIL WITH WINDS.

&&