Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Dodge City, KS

092 
WWUS53 KDDC 192310
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
610 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

KSC051-195-192320-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-180620T0000Z/
Trego KS-Ellis KS-
610 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TREGO AND WESTERN ELLIS
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3873 9931 3877 10005 3901 10011 3913 9972
      3913 9951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 250DEG 23KT 3891 9979 

$$

UMSCHEID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
112 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Potential for severe weather, MCS, and heavy rain setting up from
this evening through the overnight. An upper level low in Montana
will kick out a shortwave which will move from central Colorado
into western Kansas through tonight. This wave will combine with
a stationary to an eventual cold front across west central Kansas
to produce several areas of rain. The highest confidence of the
heaviest rain of possibly 2-3 inches will be along and just south
of the I-70 corridor. Models are hinting at a couple rounds of
initiation with the first being during the afternoon and then
another round of storms coming in from northeast Colorado in
association with the main shortwave and cold front.

Severe threat initially this afternoon will be a short time frame
of supercells primarily along the Colorado border where we could
see large hail and an isolated tornado threat. As the event
evolves it will quickly become a wind threat as the storms will
quickly develop into a line and move across the area.

Wednesday as the upper low progresses into Nebraska and the
shortwave move into central Kansas the rain should gradually end
from west to east through the morning into the afternoon. With the
clouds hanging around and cold air advection high temperatures
will be in the lower to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The upper level low slowly moves eastward into Iowa Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning and will bring in a second cold
front across the region. This will lead to cooler temperatures
through the day Thursday into Friday morning.

The storm system should exit the area by Friday bringing the
return of southeast winds and moisture. Both GFS and Euro hint at
convection trying to develop along a warm front as a shortwave
moves out of Colorado by the late afternoon.

The weekend has another upper level low developing in the Pacific
northwest and moving towards the Rockies with a good baroclinic
zone developing roughly along the I-70 corridor. With upslope flow
and moisture in place the possibility of another heavy rain event
and MCS could be in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Thunderstorms will become likely as we go throughout this
afternoon and especially tonight. Heavy rain, which will reduce
surface visibilities, and gusty winds from the storms will be a
threat for all TAF sites primarily from 01Z- 09Z. There is the
possibility at HYS and GCK of thunderstorms occurring as early as
22Z.  The thunderstorm threat should gradually subside for all
TAF sites after 12Z with ceiling slowly rising through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  64  84  60 /  20  90  50  10
GCK  95  63  84  59 /  40  90  30  10
EHA  95  62  84  59 /  30  70  20  10
LBL  95  65  84  60 /  20  80  30  10
HYS  94  66  82  60 /  50  90  20  20
P28  95  69  82  64 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
morning for KSZ030-031-043>045.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
336 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-200845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
336 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018 /236 AM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon
into the overnight period, first across west central Kansas
spreading southeast as the night progresses. The strongest storms
will be capable of producing hail around 2 inches and winds over
70 mph. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out across west
central Kansas late this afternoon.

A flash flood watch will be in effect along the I-70 corridor late
this afternoon into the overnight period. See the latest flood
product for more information.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across south central
Kansas Wednesday morning. These storms are not expected to be
severe at this time.

A chance of thunderstorms will be possible Friday night and again
Sunday. It is too early to tell if any of these storms will become
severe.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed first across west central Kansas
late this afternoon spreading southeast this evening into tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
440 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HAIL             13 SE KENDALL           37.78N 101.41W
06/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       KEARNY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
448 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             4 E MODOC               38.48N 101.00W
06/19/2018  E2.00 INCH       SCOTT              KS   PUBLIC

            IMAGE FROM SOCIAL MEDIA & MATCHED WITH
            RADAR. SEVERAL STONES AT LEAST 2 INCHES. 5
            MILES WEST OF SCOTT CITY AT HWY 96 AND GRANT
            ROAD.

&&

LCR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
459 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SCOTT CITY              38.48N 100.91W
06/19/2018                   SCOTT              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VEHICLES STALLED IN FLOODED ROADS IN SCOTT
            CITY.

&&

MR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
513 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

KSZ074-075-084-085-192300-
Stanton KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-Morton KS-
513 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MORTON...SOUTHWESTERN
GRANT...SOUTHEASTERN STANTON AND NORTHWESTERN STEVENS COUNTIES UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

At 513 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles north of Wilburton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hugoton, Rolla, Richfield, Wilburton and Feterita.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3701 10179 3741 10194 3748 10146 3713 10131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 244DEG 28KT 3713 10175

TATRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
536 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SCOTT CITY              38.47N 100.91W
06/19/2018  M3.72 INCH       SCOTT              KS   PUBLIC

            RAIN GAUGE REPORT OF RAIN SO FAR.

&&

GT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
537 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

KSZ030-031-192330-
Trego KS-Ellis KS-
537 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 536 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Trego Center, moving northeast at 15 mph. Additional
thunderstorms continued to develop into Ellis County, which will also
be capable of hail to Nickel size or potentially larger. The slow-
moving nature of these storms will lead to locally torrential
rainfall.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Ellis, Wakeeney, Victoria, Walker, Catherine, Ogallah, Collyer,
Emmeram, Trego Center, Yocemento, Cedar Bluff, Munjor, Riga, Toulon,
Voda and Antonino.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3879 9905 3871 10014 3913 10015 3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 233DEG 14KT 3890 10006

UMSCHEID