Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Dodge City, KS

148 
WWUS53 KDDC 282347
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
647 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSC055-067-069-081-093-290045-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-180529T0045Z/
Kearny KS-Finney KS-Grant KS-Gray KS-Haskell KS-
647 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEARNY...WESTERN FINNEY...NORTHEASTERN GRANT...
NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND NORTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES...

At 647 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles northeast
of Hickok, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Holcomb and Plymell. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3764 10126 3816 10100 3816 10050 3762 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 226DEG 37KT 3771 10113 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

TATRO

744 
WWUS53 KDDC 290000
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
700 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSC055-067-069-081-093-290045-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-180529T0045Z/
Kearny KS-Finney KS-Grant KS-Gray KS-Haskell KS-
700 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEARNY...WESTERN FINNEY...NORTHEASTERN GRANT...
NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND NORTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES...

At 700 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located very near Garden
City, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Holcomb and Plymell. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3764 10126 3816 10100 3816 10050 3762 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 216DEG 83KT 3801 10086 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

TATRO

874 
WWUS53 KDDC 290042
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
742 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSC055-067-069-081-093-290052-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-180529T0045Z/
Kearny KS-Finney KS-Grant KS-Gray KS-Haskell KS-
742 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEARNY...WESTERN
FINNEY...NORTHEASTERN GRANT...NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND NORTHWESTERN
HASKELL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3764 10126 3816 10100 3816 10050 3762 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 226DEG 37KT 3829 10050 

$$

TATRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...Updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Main concern today and tonight is the severe thunderstorm
potential, which has already started. Think there are two areas of
concerns for two different types of severe hazards. An OFB is
running from central Ellis county all the way to Sherman county.
To the west, a quasi-warm front or stationary boundary extends
across portions of east-central Colorado. Am mainly concerned with
tornado potential with these two boundaries if a storm/supercell
were to interact with said boundaries. Mesoanalysis shows east
winds behind this boundary along with locally higher STP values.
So, putting this all together, for areas along and north of
Highway 96, am concerned with tornadoes and secondary hail. To
the south, higher LCL's and weaker lower level shear (weaker due
to no boundaries nearby) will favor a more hail and wind threat.
Think hail size of 2-3" is likely for initial supercells. Hail
size will lower (per LHP) later this evening through upscale
growth and higher beneficial competition of hail embryos. A wind
threat will be the main concern late this evening for much of the
rest of the forecast area as a squall line is eventually expected.
Ignoring the tornado, hail and wind threat, the central zones and
perhaps eastern zones stand to see a good chance at seeing 1-2"
of rain with the squall line if it actually develops like some of
the meso models are suggesting.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Severe thunderstorm potential for tomorrow will all depend on what
happens tonight and where the mesoscale boundaries/warm sector
ends up. EC suggests the main threat will be along and east of
Highway 283. A cooler bl along with associated lower LCL's do
suggest some tornado threat tomorrow. Best areas per warm sector
placement from the models would be across the eastern/southeastern
zones.

Left the rest of the extended as is with FB pops and temps. Warm
and dry is the long and short of it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF pd. Locally reduced
cigs/vis will be possible in association with +TSRA moving across the
terminals from west to east starting this afternoon through the evening.
SVR hail and wind is also possible with the line. Storms will exit
the entire region late tonight. Otherwise, SE/S winds 15-30 kt today
through end of TAF pd.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  86  62  89 /  80  30  40  10
GCK  63  86  60  88 /  80  20  10  10
EHA  62  86  60  89 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  65  88  61  90 /  80  10  10  10
HYS  65  81  60  87 /  70  40  60   0
P28  69  89  65  92 /  30  20  60   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-291030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
519 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 /419 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms will develop along a surface trough near the
Colorado border and near an old outflow boundary in northwest
Kansas this afternoon. Hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and
damaging wind gusts may accompany the more intense thunderstorms.
Although the threat of tornadoes is not high, a tornado is
possible with any discrete supercell especially around sunset
when the low level jet develops.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop again Tuesday as an
upper level cold pool approaches western Kansas. Thunderstorms may
be ongoing Tuesday morning in northwest Kansas and will develop
southeast with time. Hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and
heavy rain can be expected with the more intense thunderstorms,
especially near a retreating outflow boundary in south central
Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms may occur Wednesday and
Thursday, but the probability of severe weather is low. Hot
weather will develop Friday with highs near 100 degrees especially
in the Red Hills. Active fire behavior can be expected.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  No hazards.

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  No hazards.

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 300 PM in Trego and Ness
Counties and near the Colorado border. Spotter activation may be
required farther east during the afternoon and evening as a line
of thunderstorms moves to near Highway 283 by 9 PM.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
609 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSZ084-290015-
Morton KS-
609 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORTON COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 609 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles north of Elkhart, moving north at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhart, Richfield and Wilburton.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3722 10204 3733 10203 3730 10161 3700 10168
      3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 196DEG 19KT 3705 10190

TATRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
611 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             3 ENE BIG BOW           37.58N 101.51W
05/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
613 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             3 NNW ULYSSES           37.61N 101.38W
05/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
629 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSE LAKIN             37.89N 101.23W
05/28/2018  M63 MPH          KEARNY             KS   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
634 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             4 NNW ULYSSES           37.64N 101.37W
05/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
641 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             9 NW FETERITA           37.26N 101.59W
05/28/2018  E1.75 INCH       MORTON             KS   PUBLIC

&&