Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
823 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated the forecast to add the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to the
entire CWA until 08z Thursday. Expect large hail, and damaging
straight-line wind east/south of the boundary, to be the primary
threats. Will coordinate with SPC later regarding a possible
Watch over the MSA. Decreased max POPs tonight over the CWA to 80
percent, which is still categorical. Adjusted the QPF to reflect
the latest output from WPC.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 636 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

AVIATION...

With the exception of MVFR CIGs already at LRD, VFR is expected
for the next few hours at ALI-CRP-VCT before CIGs begin to lower.
The approach of mid-level trough is expected to aide in firing off
convection, slowly moving from west to east late this evening
through the overnight. Isolated SHRAs have developed across S TX
but as the night progresses, expecting an increase in development
along with thunderstorm activity. Did back timing a couple of
hours mentioning VCTS/TSRA as area still remains slightly capped,
but enough lifting from the approaching trough should help
overcome it. Some of these storms may become strong to even severe
at times, capable of producing hail and gusty winds. Convection
is expected to gradually diminish or completely push offshore
shortly before 12Z. VFR conditions are expected after that.
Surface boundary has already pushed through the western areas near
LRD where winds are more N-ly, but elsewhere, winds are generally
S-SE. Will gradually see winds begin to veer out of the SW then
NW through the night with the boundary moving eastward.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018/

DISCUSSION (Tonight through Wednesday)...

Should not be much longer before South Texas starts to see
stronger convection fire up either over our area late this
afternoon and/or move into the area later tonight. Am expecting
widespread convection over the eastern areas, with lower POPs over
the NW Brush Country where the boundary has already moved across.
Appears that some frontogenesis has been occurring over the area
this afternoon (indicative of the lower temperatures west), and
that along with the potent upper level jet, will provide
scattered to widespread thunderstorms. SPC has area in slight risk
and will likely have at least a portion of the area in a blue
(severe) box tonight. Also the potential for heavy rainfall and
have included that in the eastern areas (see WPC excessive
rainfall outlook). Expect the convection to move offshore late
tonight with little to no rainfall over inland areas by sunrise
Thursday (maybe a small chance toward the coastal areas where some
rain may linger). Potential for some moderate to strong winds
behind the thunder as the atmosphere adjusts from the convection.

Clearing on Thursday with the trough moving across, and it looks
like there will be one more warm day as westerly downslope winds
add to the temperature rises. High pressure will surge into the
area late Thursday night/Friday morning, providing a much cooler
day on Friday. The high moves east on Friday night and winds
return to the southeast for the weekend, resulting in another
gradual warm up and increase in humidity. Next shot of rainfall
appears to be Tuesday as the sufficient moisture return combines
with a shortwave trough. Will keep it mainly dry on Wednesday of
next week for now. Some models suggesting a front possibly near
the area Tuesday or Wednesday, but that probably will stay north
of the area.

Finally, tide levels are running about 1 foot (mainly less) above
predicted levels. High tide is approaching at Bob Hall Pier and
Port Aransas. Could have some very minor run-up later this
afternoon or this evening but overall tide levels will remain
below any need for Coastal Flood Advisory (will have next shift
monitor). Have maintained the rip current risk as high until 10
PM. By then, the convection will be approaching.

For temperatures, generally went with a short-term consensus-
NAM-12 forecast for tonight, and on the warm side for Thursday.
More toward the cooler guidance Thursday night. After Friday
(mainly consensus forecast) generally went with a blend of
Superblend and NationalBlend for temperatures and moisture grids.

MARINE...

Seas remain elevated over the offshore waters so have extended the
Small Craft Advisory until mid morning Thursday. Close to 7 feet
over the eastern-most near shore waters but overall no need for
the SCA there at this time. Thunderstorm activity will increase
in areal coverage toward midnight, with all the convection moving
out of the area by late Thursday morning (and probably earlier).
Mariners should keep an eye to the sky tonight and be prepared to
seek safe harbor if storms approach and/or a warning is issued.
Near SCA behind surge of high pressure on Friday, then flow
returns onshore by Saturday. No significant weather until early
next week, if then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    65  90  60  79  62  /  80  10   0   0   0
Victoria          63  85  56  77  57  /  80  10   0   0   0
Laredo            63  90  57  83  60  /  60   0   0   0   0
Alice             65  90  57  81  59  /  80  10   0   0   0
Rockport          67  85  62  77  64  /  80  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           59  88  54  81  57  /  50   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        67  89  58  81  60  /  80  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       67  87  63  77  66  /  80  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

WC/87...SHORT TERM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
510 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

TXZ229>234-239>247-291015-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
510 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A slight risk of severe weather will exist for all of South Texas
for primarily late this afternoon through tonight. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary severe storm threats, although
a brief tornado will also be possible this evening. Minor flooding
may also occur overnight.

A high risk of rip currents will exist today along Gulf facing
beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A moderate risk of rip currents will exist on Thursday along Gulf-
facing beaches.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Monday into Tuesday.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay reports of severe
weather and flooding. Use hashtags #ccspotter and #txwx.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-291015-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
510 AM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms may occur after midnight tonight across area
waters.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 7am this morning for the
nearshore Gulf waters and until 1am Thursday for the offshore Gulf
waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Lingering thunderstorm chances will exist over the Gulf Waters
Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Mariners are encouraged to relay reports of hazardous marine
conditions. Use hashtags #ccspotter and #txwx.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
912 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

TXZ240>242-290300-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-Duval-
912 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL...
SOUTHWESTERN JIM WELLS AND NORTHWESTERN KLEBERG COUNTIES...

At 911 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Rios, or 10
miles northwest of Premont, moving north at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alice, San Diego, Premont, Benavides, Ramirez, San Jose, Concepcion,
Ben Bolt, Palito Blanco, La Gloria, Cruz Calle, Alice Acres, Rios and
Lake Alice.

LAT...LON 2726 9848 2789 9834 2784 9797 2726 9809
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 189DEG 34KT 2749 9822

CB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
914 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

TXZ229-239-290315-
Webb-La Salle-
914 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES...

At 912 PM CDT, thunderstorms were developing across northwestern
Webb and much of La Salle counties, moving northeast at 40 mph.
These storms are expected to continue to gradually strengthen over
the next hour and may produce small hail.

Half inch hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Laredo, Cotulla, Encinal, Las Tiendas, Botines, La Esperanza Ranch
Airport, Ranchos Penitas West, Columbia Bridge, Artesia Wells,
Gardendale, Woodward, Millett, Los Angeles, Callaghan, Chupadera
Ranch Airport and Fowlerton.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Corpus Christi.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
South Texas.

LAT...LON 2820 9940 2864 9940 2864 9880 2848 9880
      2761 9954 2760 9958 2764 9960 2763 9964
      2766 9967 2766 9971 2778 9982 2776 9984
      2779 9987 2791 9990 2794 9994 2798 9993
      2800 9999 2815 10009 2819 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 234DEG 36KT 2805 9991

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
951 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     HAIL             ALICE                   27.76N  98.07W
03/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       JIM WELLS          TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            PICTURES OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL SUBMITTED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800023

HART

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
959 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

TXZ231-241-244-290330-
Live Oak-Jim Wells-San Patricio-
959 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SAN PATRICIO...
NORTHEASTERN JIM WELLS AND SOUTHEASTERN LIVE OAK COUNTIES...

At 958 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Westdale, or 12
miles north of Alice, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mathis, Orange Grove, Lake City, Lagarto, Alfred-South La Paloma,
Westdale, Sandia, Argenta, Mount Lucas, Alfred, Dinero, Tynan,
Lakeside, Lake Corpus Christi and Pernitas Point.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2787 9811 2826 9799 2818 9781 2818 9779
      2817 9776 2813 9767 2799 9780 2798 9782
      2797 9782 2797 9783 2789 9793 2784 9794
      2781 9796
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 207DEG 41KT 2793 9799

CB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1001 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

TXZ229-290330-
La Salle-
1001 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LA SALLE COUNTY...

At 1000 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Divot to 6 miles
southeast of Encinal. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cotulla, Encinal, Gardendale, Woodward, Fowlerton, Millett, Fort
Ewell Site, Los Angeles and Artesia Wells.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south Texas.

LAT...LON 2812 9880 2805 9900 2803 9938 2819 9940
      2864 9940 2865 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 242DEG 32KT 2868 9935 2798 9927

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1004 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     HAIL             ORANGE GROVE            27.96N  97.94W
03/28/2018  E0.25 INCH       JIM WELLS          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CRP1800024

KW