Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
328 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Currently, an area of strong to severe thunderstorms was moving east
across southwestern North Dakota, and is expected to continue moving
east across southern North Dakota. A severe thunderstorm watch is in
effect until 9 am CDT for southern North Dakota counties. Farther
north the showers and thunderstorms are not expected to be severe,
but are also expected to move east across northern North Dakota
early this morning.

This complex of storms was associated with a strong cluster of upper
level impulses moving out of Montana/Wyoming across the Dakotas and
reaching the Red River Valley after daybreak. Meanwhile a surface
warm front extended from a low in central South Dakota northeastward
to near Fargo. This warm front and a strengthening southerly low
level jet was established over eastern SD/NE into IA/MN. These
features were associated with ongoing thunderstorms across South
Dakota. This low level jet and warm frontal boundary is forecast to
lift northward into southeastern ND and perhaps west of the James
Valley. This would result in thunderstorms moving northward, perhaps
merging with the western cluster of storms.

Later today a building thermal ridge may help cap convection for the
late morning and afternoon hours. Then tonight a cluster of strong
upper level impulses move northeast across North Dakota as the upper
low begins lifting northeast ward into Saskatchewan. Plenty of low
level moisture with dewpoints in the 60-70F range will bring CAPE
values of 2000-5000 J/kg this afternoon and evening. Vertical wind
profiles show 50+ knots of 0-6km bulk shear.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of southern North Dakota
in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather for the today and tonight
period, with a lesser "marginal risk" for the rest of the state.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Main concerns for the long term are chances for thunderstorms
Wednesday morning, then a warming trend ensues into Saturday.

On Wednesday (July 4th)...the frontal boundary that has
been the focus of severe thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday
night will begin moving east as a cold front. At daybreak this cold
front will be established across the central and eastern Dakotas,
extending from central South Dakota to near Jamestown to the
northern border of ND/MN. By around noon the front should be east of
the Jamestown area with dry high pressure pushing in from the west.
Meanwhile the main upper low will have lifted northeast into
Saskatchewan with a trailing vort tail over northwestern ND and
sweep northeast into Manitoba. Thus a chance of morning
thunderstorms for northwestern and central ND, with clearing skies
from west to east for a mostly sunny afternoon and a clear night for
the 4th.

Thursday through Saturday, an upper level western ridge builds
behind the exiting of the strong upper low, and this ridge expands
into the Plains. This should result in a shower and thunderstorm-
free period with a warming trend. Look for highs Thursday from
75-85F, warming to 85-95 for Friday and Saturday.

Another strong upper level shortwave moves east out of the Pacific
Northwest Saturday/Saturday night, dampening the upper ridge and
bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to our area Saturday
night, followed by a more zonal flow across our area Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

At 1230 AM CDT, scattered thunderstorms were moving into western ND
from Montana and will move east across the state. Thunderstorm
activity currently over the eastern Dakotas are forecast to continue
and may redevelop up to the KJMS area. This area will likely become
more widespread across central ND and last well into the afternoon
hours Tuesday. Another round of thunderstorms are forecast to move
into western ND again Tuesday night. VFR conditions should prevail
except for a chance of MVFR ceilings associate with thunderstorms.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1003 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-040315-
McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
1003 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018 /903 PM MDT Mon Jul 2 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and
southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern
two-thirds of North Dakota tonight. Possible hazards are hail
to golf ball size and wind gusts to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some storms
may be severe, especially across south central and southeast
North Dakota. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds.

There is a chance of thunderstorms during the daytime hours
Wednesday, Independence Day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across southern North Dakota
tonight.

NDZ001>005-009>013-040315-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-
1003 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and northwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight, mainly after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some storms
may be severe, especially across south central and southeast
North Dakota. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds.

There is a chance of thunderstorms during the daytime hours
Wednesday, Independence Day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across south central and
southeast North Dakota Tuesday.

ZH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 AM     HAIL             BOWMAN                  46.18N 103.39W
07/03/2018  E1.00 INCH       BOWMAN             ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA TO
            BROADCAST METEOROLOGIST TO NWS.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 S DICKINSON           46.80N 102.80W
07/03/2018  M58 MPH          STARK              ND   ASOS

            TR AIRPORT SOUTH OF DICKINSON ALONG HIGHWAY
            22.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     TSTM WND GST     SAND CREEK              46.55N 103.52W
07/03/2018  M58 MPH          SLOPE              ND   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AMDN8, SAND CREEK.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
328 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 AM     TSTM WND GST     HETTINGER MUNICIPAL AIR 46.01N 102.65W
07/03/2018  M58 MPH          ADAMS              ND   ASOS

            ASOS STATION HEI, HETTINGER MUNICIPAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
336 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N MOTT                46.39N 102.33W
07/03/2018  E61 MPH          HETTINGER          ND   MESONET

            ND AG WEATHER NETWORK.

&&

JP MARTIN