Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Bismarck, ND

082 
WWUS53 KBIS 030019
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
619 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2018

NDC041-089-030115-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-180703T0115Z/
Hettinger ND-Stark ND-
619 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR NORTHERN HETTINGER AND SOUTHEASTERN STARK COUNTIES...

At 618 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles north of
Regent, or 19 miles northwest of Mott, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lefor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4652 10279 4667 10275 4682 10212 4637 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 276DEG 20KT 4657 10261 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HAMILTON

516 
WWUS53 KBIS 030019 RRA
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
619 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2018

NDC041-089-030115-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-180703T0115Z/
Hettinger ND-Stark ND-
619 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR NORTHERN HETTINGER AND SOUTHEASTERN STARK COUNTIES...

At 619 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles north of
Regent, or 18 miles northwest of Mott, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lefor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4652 10279 4667 10275 4682 10212 4637 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 276DEG 20KT 4657 10260 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HAMILTON

122 
WWUS53 KBIS 030030
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
630 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2018

NDC041-089-030115-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-180703T0115Z/
Hettinger ND-Stark ND-
630 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HETTINGER AND SOUTHEASTERN STARK COUNTIES...

At 629 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Regent, or 15 miles northwest of Mott, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Hettinger and southeastern Stark Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4650 10267 4665 10263 4674 10213 4637 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 293DEG 21KT 4653 10255 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HAMILTON

144 
WWUS53 KBIS 030040
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
640 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2018

NDC089-030050-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-180703T0115Z/
Stark ND-
640 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN STARK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
southwestern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4648 10258 4663 10259 4663 10214 4637 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 282DEG 25KT 4653 10243 

$$

NDC041-030115-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-180703T0115Z/
Hettinger ND-
640 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HETTINGER COUNTY...

At 640 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast of
Regent, or 11 miles northwest of Mott, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Hettinger County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4648 10258 4663 10259 4663 10214 4637 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 282DEG 25KT 4653 10243 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HAMILTON

538 
WWUS53 KBIS 030057
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
657 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2018

NDC041-030115-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-180703T0115Z/
Hettinger ND-
657 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HETTINGER COUNTY...

At 656 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles north of
Mott, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Hettinger County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4650 10243 4663 10246 4663 10214 4642 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 280DEG 22KT 4652 10226 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HAMILTON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
652 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

No major changes needed for this update. Just tweaked my
precipitation chances through 06z based on the latest
observations, trends, and high resolution guidance. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms have begun to develop along a
line from just south of Belfield to just south of New Salem. While
storms are in a favorable environment to become severe (MLCAPE
greater than 1000 J/kg and effective shear ranging from 50 to 55
knots) they are having a bit of a tough time organizing, possibly
due to some capping still observed on the 00z Bismarck sounding. A
couple of these storms should eventually be able to overcome the
cap and have the possibility to develop into supercells capable of
damaging winds and large hail. Lack of better low level moisture
and relatively high LCLs will keep any tornado risk at a minimum.
Storm coverage also should remain fairly isolated due to neutral
to slightly rising heights through 06z. A compact vort max will
move into western North Dakota around 06z, likely sparking more
widespread convection across the west and central.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

A trough continues to develop across the Pacific Northwest,
creating southwest flow aloft over the Dakotas by tonight. The
first in a series of upper level waves in the southwest flow
aloft should move into the Dakotas this evening, continuing later
tonight with even an even stronger wave. In response, lee
cyclogenesis is forecast to develop this evening, while a low
level jet develops through the central Plains east of the surface
low. This will increase low level humidity with dewpoints rising
into the lower to mid 60s in south central ND.

A warm front will continue to lift north today and eventually
stall out around the ND/SD border. The short-term models have been
consistent in developing some isolated cells late this afternoon
across central North Dakota in response to an approaching upper
level short-wave trough and diurnal heating. Then, later tonight a
complex of storms may develop and march across southern North
Dakota in response to another upper level wave and increasing
low- level jet.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the southern half of North
Dakota in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather. While the best
instability should be just south of the ND/SD border, there will
likely be ample shear and forcing for stronger storm development
and maintenance. At this time it appears hail around quarter size
and wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threats.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

Main concerns for the long term are chances for thunderstorms
Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon, some of which may be severe.

The severe weather parameters are even stronger for Tuesday and
Tuesday night. The western upper level trough deepens over the
Rockies Tuesday with a closed low becoming established over
Alberta/Saskatchewan/Montana, continuing the upper level impulses
streaming northeastward into the northern Plains. The surface
warm frontal boundary becomes more well established from
southwestern South Dakota to northeastern North Dakota as the
surface low deepens over Colorado. CAPE values rise to 2000-4000
J/kg in south central and eastern ND Tuesday through Wednesday
afternoon. Tuesday night the strongest upper level waves move
northeast across North Dakota as the upper low begins lifting
northeast ward into Saskatchewan. The Storm Prediction Center has
placed south central and southeastern North Dakota in a "Slight
Risk" for severe weather for the Tuesday morning through Tuesday
night period.

On Wednesday (July 4th), a cold front moves east across North
Dakota. The chance for severe thunderstorms continues Wednesday
with high CAPE and shear across the James Valley. The cold front
is forecast to reach the Red River Valley by late afternoon, thus
the threat of showers and thunderstorms should be over by
Wednesday afternoon over western ND and be over by Wednesday
evening in the James Valley.

Thursday through Saturday, an upper level western ridge builds
behind the exiting of the strong upper low, and this ridge expands
into the Plains. This should result in a shower and thunderstorm-
free period with a warming trend. Look for highs Thursday from
75-85F, warming to 85-95 for Friday and Saturday.

Another strong upper level shortwave moves east out of the Pacific
Northwest Saturday/Saturday night, dampening the upper ridge and
bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to our area Saturday
night, followed by a more zonal flow across our area Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
evening and tonight across the southern third of the state. One
cluster of storms was developing just south of KDIK. This activity
should drift east southeast through the night before another wave
of showers and thunderstorms will enter the state from Montana
around or after 06z Tuesday. These showers and storms will likely
be more widespread across the west and central and last well into
the early afternoon hours on Tuesday. Winds will remain generally
light and variable outside of any thunderstorm activity, and VFR
conditions will prevail with a chance for some MVFR ceilings
across KBIS/KDIK/KJMS late in the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ZH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
630 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-032330-
McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
630 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018 /530 PM MDT Mon Jul 2 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and
southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern
two-thirds of North Dakota tonight. Possible hazards are hail
to golf ball size and wind gusts to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some storms
may be severe, especially across south central and southeast
North Dakota. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds.

There is a chance of thunderstorms during the daytime hours
Wednesday, Independence Day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across southern North Dakota
tonight.

NDZ001>005-009>013-032330-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-
630 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and northwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight, mainly after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some storms
may be severe, especially across south central and southeast
North Dakota. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds.

There is a chance of thunderstorms during the daytime hours
Wednesday, Independence Day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across south central and
southeast North Dakota Tuesday.

ZH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
602 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2018

NDZ033-041-030045-
Hettinger ND-Stark ND-
602 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HETTINGER AND
SOUTHEASTERN STARK COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

At 601 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast of
New England, or 18 miles south of Dickinson, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
New England, Schefield and Lefor.

LAT...LON 4652 10287 4669 10291 4680 10229 4648 10225
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 261DEG 16KT 4662 10279

HAMILTON