Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Our second round of storms was entering southwestern North Dakota
from Montana. This area of strong to severe thunderstorms will
move east across southwest into south central North Dakota.
Meanwhile the storms in the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota were
associated with a strengthening low level jet and surface warm
front. This activity is forecast to continue through the night and
may build back into south central North Dakota.

The current severe thunderstorm watch for southern North Dakota
expires at 2 am CDT. However, the severe threat may extend beyond
this time period. There are options to extend in time the current
watch or perhaps later tonight the Storm Prediction Center issuing a
new watch. Waiting to see how convection develops later on.

UPDATE Issued at 957 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

A couple of isolated thunderstorms continue to move slowly across
south central North Dakota from near Bismarck south to the South
Dakota border. This activity is expected to slowly diminish over
the next couple of hours, but the impulse located over eastern
Montana is still expected to enter the state around or after 06z.
Populated precipitation chances through 12z using the latest time
lagged HRRR iteration which seemed to have a decent handle on the
overall current and future coverage of convection. Otherwise, just
blended the latest observations to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

No major changes needed for this update. Just tweaked my
precipitation chances through 06z based on the latest
observations, trends, and high resolution guidance. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms have begun to develop along a
line from just south of Belfield to just south of New Salem. While
storms are in a favorable environment to become severe (MLCAPE
greater than 1000 J/kg and effective shear ranging from 50 to 55
knots) they are having a bit of a tough time organizing, possibly
due to some capping still observed on the 00z Bismarck sounding. A
couple of these storms should eventually be able to overcome the
cap and have the possibility to develop into supercells capable of
damaging winds and large hail. Lack of better low level moisture
and relatively high LCLs will keep any tornado risk at a minimum.
Storm coverage also should remain fairly isolated due to neutral
to slightly rising heights through 06z. A compact vort max will
move into western North Dakota around 06z, likely sparking more
widespread convection across the west and central.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

A trough continues to develop across the Pacific Northwest,
creating southwest flow aloft over the Dakotas by tonight. The
first in a series of upper level waves in the southwest flow
aloft should move into the Dakotas this evening, continuing later
tonight with even an even stronger wave. In response, lee
cyclogenesis is forecast to develop this evening, while a low
level jet develops through the central Plains east of the surface
low. This will increase low level humidity with dewpoints rising
into the lower to mid 60s in south central ND.

A warm front will continue to lift north today and eventually
stall out around the ND/SD border. The short-term models have been
consistent in developing some isolated cells late this afternoon
across central North Dakota in response to an approaching upper
level short-wave trough and diurnal heating. Then, later tonight a
complex of storms may develop and march across southern North
Dakota in response to another upper level wave and increasing
low- level jet.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the southern half of North
Dakota in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather. While the best
instability should be just south of the ND/SD border, there will
likely be ample shear and forcing for stronger storm development
and maintenance. At this time it appears hail around quarter size
and wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threats.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

Main concerns for the long term are chances for thunderstorms
Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon, some of which may be severe.

The severe weather parameters are even stronger for Tuesday and
Tuesday night. The western upper level trough deepens over the
Rockies Tuesday with a closed low becoming established over
Alberta/Saskatchewan/Montana, continuing the upper level impulses
streaming northeastward into the northern Plains. The surface
warm frontal boundary becomes more well established from
southwestern South Dakota to northeastern North Dakota as the
surface low deepens over Colorado. CAPE values rise to 2000-4000
J/kg in south central and eastern ND Tuesday through Wednesday
afternoon. Tuesday night the strongest upper level waves move
northeast across North Dakota as the upper low begins lifting
northeast ward into Saskatchewan. The Storm Prediction Center has
placed south central and southeastern North Dakota in a "Slight
Risk" for severe weather for the Tuesday morning through Tuesday
night period.

On Wednesday (July 4th), a cold front moves east across North
Dakota. The chance for severe thunderstorms continues Wednesday
with high CAPE and shear across the James Valley. The cold front
is forecast to reach the Red River Valley by late afternoon, thus
the threat of showers and thunderstorms should be over by
Wednesday afternoon over western ND and be over by Wednesday
evening in the James Valley.

Thursday through Saturday, an upper level western ridge builds
behind the exiting of the strong upper low, and this ridge expands
into the Plains. This should result in a shower and thunderstorm-
free period with a warming trend. Look for highs Thursday from
75-85F, warming to 85-95 for Friday and Saturday.

Another strong upper level shortwave moves east out of the Pacific
Northwest Saturday/Saturday night, dampening the upper ridge and
bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to our area Saturday
night, followed by a more zonal flow across our area Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

At 1230 AM CDT, scattered thunderstorms were moving into western ND
from Montana and will move east across the state. Thunderstorm
activity currently over the eastern Dakotas are forecast to continue
and may redevelop up to the KJMS area. This area will likely become
more widespread across central ND and last well into the afternoon
hours Tuesday. Another round of thunderstorms are forecast to move
into western ND again Tuesday night. VFR conditions should prevail
except for a chance of MVFR ceilings associate with thunderstorms.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1003 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-040315-
McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
1003 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018 /903 PM MDT Mon Jul 2 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and
southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern
two-thirds of North Dakota tonight. Possible hazards are hail
to golf ball size and wind gusts to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some storms
may be severe, especially across south central and southeast
North Dakota. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds.

There is a chance of thunderstorms during the daytime hours
Wednesday, Independence Day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across southern North Dakota
tonight.

NDZ001>005-009>013-040315-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-
1003 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and northwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight, mainly after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some storms
may be severe, especially across south central and southeast
North Dakota. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds.

There is a chance of thunderstorms during the daytime hours
Wednesday, Independence Day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across south central and
southeast North Dakota Tuesday.

ZH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
122 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     TSTM WND GST     BEACH                   46.92N 104.01W
07/03/2018  M60 MPH          GOLDEN VALLEY      ND   MESONET

            MEASURED ON BEACH OBSERVATION.

&&

JP MARTIN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 AM     HAIL             BOWMAN                  46.18N 103.39W
07/03/2018  E1.00 INCH       BOWMAN             ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA TO
            BROADCAST METEOROLOGIST TO NWS.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 S DICKINSON           46.80N 102.80W
07/03/2018  M58 MPH          STARK              ND   ASOS

            TR AIRPORT SOUTH OF DICKINSON ALONG HIGHWAY
            22.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     TSTM WND GST     SAND CREEK              46.55N 103.52W
07/03/2018  M58 MPH          SLOPE              ND   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AMDN8, SAND CREEK.

&&

JP MARTIN