Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2018
Storm Warning 125, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this storm warning at Nov 10, 2018, 4:00 AM AKST. It was in force for 59 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 10, 2018, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 12, 2018, 2:59 PM AKST
- In force
- 59 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
281 FZAK62 PAFC 101300 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-110145- 400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 1002 mb low at 58N 177W moves to 52N 175W and dissipates in the North Pacific Sat night. A 1000 mb low near 54N 165W moves to 51N 160W at 976 mb Mon morning. A 985 mb low at 49N 162W Sun morning moves to 54N 163W at 974 mb by Mon morning. $$ PKZ411-110145- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms. .TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. .SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. $$ PKZ412-110145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY... .TODAY...N wind up to 20 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. .SUN...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 24 ft. .MON...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. $$ PKZ413-110145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY... .TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. .SUN...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft. .MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. $$ PKZ414-110145- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain. .SUN...NE wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$
6 follow-up statements
763 FZAK62 PAFC 110039 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 339 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-111415- 339 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 982 mb low at 55N 159W will move near 51N 165W at 973 mb Sun afternoon. The low will then exit into the North Pacific early Mon morning. The associated front over the central Aleutians will remain strong through Mon. $$ PKZ411-111415- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 339 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. .SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .MON...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. .THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ412-111415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 339 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .SUN...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 25 ft. Rain. .MON...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. $$ PKZ413-111415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 339 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. .SUN...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft. Rain showers. .MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. .THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. $$ PKZ414-111415- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 339 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain. .SUN...NE wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow. .MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. $$
089 FZAK62 PAFC 110129 CCA OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast...CORRECTED National Weather Service Anchorage AK 429 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-111415- 429 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 982 mb low at 55N 159W will move near 51N 165W at 973 mb Sun afternoon. The low will then exit into the North Pacific early Mon morning. The associated front over the central Aleutians will remain strong through Mon. $$ PKZ411-111415- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 429 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the evening. .SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .MON...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. .THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ412-111415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 429 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the evening. .SUN...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 25 ft. Rain. .MON...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. $$ PKZ413-111415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 429 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the evening. .SUN...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft. Rain showers. .MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. .THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. $$ PKZ414-111415- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 429 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain. .SUN...NE wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow. .MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. $$
844 FZAK62 PAFC 111300 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 400 AM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-120145- 400 AM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 979 mb low Sun morning at 55N 166W moves near 52N 162W with multiple centers at 975 mb by Mon morning and then to 57N 152W at 970 mb by Tue morning. $$ PKZ411-120145- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 400 AM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .MON...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. .THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. $$ PKZ412-120145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 400 AM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft. .TONIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft. Snow and rain. .MON...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. $$ PKZ413-120145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 400 AM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft. Widespread rain showers. .MON...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. .THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ414-120145- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 400 AM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...NE wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain and snow. .MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$
602 FZAK62 PAFC 120057 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 357 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-121400- 357 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A front over the central Aleutians will weaken Tue morning. A 963 mb Pacific low will move into the southwestern Gulf Tue morning then it will move to 57N 157W at 976 mb Tue afternoon. $$ PKZ411-121400- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 357 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .MON...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft. .TUE...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. .WED...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. $$ PKZ412-121400- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 357 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY... .TONIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 27 ft. and rain. .MON...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 27 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow and rain. .TUE...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. $$ PKZ413-121400- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 357 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY... .TONIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 28 ft. Widespread rain showers. .MON...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft. Rain showers. .MON NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain showers. .TUE...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ414-121400- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 357 PM AKST Sun Nov 11 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY... .TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 35 to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 9 to 17 ft building to 15 to 23 ft after midnight. Rain and snow. .MON...NE wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .TUE...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. $$
948 FZAK62 PAFC 121255 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 355 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-130145- 355 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A front over the central Aleutians will weaken Tue morning. A 969 mb low at 54N 165W Mon morning moves into the North Pacific Mon night. A second 972 mb low near 57N 156W Mon evening moves to 55N 157W Tue afternoon at 983 mb, then is absorbed into a Gulf low by late Tue night. $$ PKZ411-130145- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 355 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018 .TODAY...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. .TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft. .TUE...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ412-130145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 355 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft. Rain showers. .TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft. Snow and rain showers. .TUE...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$ PKZ413-130145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 355 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft. Rain showers. .TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain showers. .TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. $$ PKZ414-130145- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 355 AM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...NE wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .TUE...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. $$
283 FZAK62 PAFC 122359 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 259 PM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-131400- 259 PM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 967 mb North Pacific low at 51N 164W moves into the Gulf Tue afternoon. A 980 mb low moves over Bristol Bay Tue morning and then returns to the Gulf and dissipates Tue night. A front approaches the western Aleutians Wed afternoon. $$ PKZ411-131400- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 259 PM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018 .TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. .TUE...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .WED...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ412-131400- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 259 PM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft. .TUE...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .WED...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .WED NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. $$ PKZ413-131400- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 259 PM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain. .TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. .SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. $$ PKZ414-131400- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 259 PM AKST Mon Nov 12 2018 .TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .TUE...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .WED NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Nov 9, 5:00 PM AKST, 11 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 9, 5:00 PM AKST, 11 hours before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper level trough extends over the entirety of the
Bering. An upper level low anchoring this trough is centered
southwest of St. Lawrence Island. This low continues to bring
gale-force winds across the central and eastern Bering Sea today,
while the leading edge of the front associated with this low has
occluded and moved inland across Southwest Alaska. Behind the
front, showery precipitation is spreading in over the Pribilofs,
Southwest Alaska, and the northern AKPEN.
Looking south, an upper level ridge over the Gulf is gradually
moving eastward, allowing for an approaching North Pacific low
to become the main driver of the weather for this weekend.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in generally good agreement for the near-term. All
model solutions agree that the upper level Bering low will move
southward and phase with a North Pacific low over the southwestern
Gulf of Alaska Sunday morning. Models then struggle with the
movement of this phased upper-level low over the Gulf through
early next week. Currently, the GFS solution was preferred, though
higher resolution models were used to resolve localized wind
forecasts and QPF amounts in the short term.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Some MVFR conditions are expected early this evening,
becoming VFR later in the evening. VFR conditions are then most
likely through Saturday afternoon, but there is a chance of fog
late tonight through Saturday morning. Thus some VCFG was added
to the TAF.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A fairly robust Bering trough will dive southeast across the
eastern Aleutians/AKPEN overnight and phase with a low ejecting
north from Hawaii. The Bering trough was already very convective
looking with even some lightning strikes/flashes today, and then
add in the tropical moisture surging north and the pump is primed
for an energetic system to develop. Speaking of that tropical
connection, this afternoon's layer precipitable water imagery
shows this surge is already taking shape, with the latest IVT
(Integrated Vapor Transport) showing forecasts of 300 to 400%
above normal.
An occluded front will move into the Gulf and approach coastal
locations during the day Saturday. Winds look to increase to Storm
Force over much of the northern Gulf, with Hurricane Force gusts
possible. This front will also bring precipitation to the region,
surging northward through the day.
Then, we'll experience a brief "lull" in the activity, as we'll
be in between systems with the AR shifting eastward and some
disturbances in the flow aloft passing overhead. as this occurs,
the surface front remains stalled along or just south of the
Southcentral coast allowing low-level colder air to remain in
place, while temperatures warm above freezing aloft (say above
4000 feet). This could bring some freezing rain to interior
locations Sunday morning.
On Sunday a new low will form and deepen south of the AKPEN. This
will influence the wind field as the pressure gradient tightens.
Significant rainfall is possible on the eastern Kenai Peninsula
Sunday evening into Monday morning, where some locations could
see 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in a 12 hour period.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast period commences with an active pattern
Monday featuring a large low centered in the Eastern Aleutians
with multiple embedded shortwaves. The most prominent being an
impulse along a surface gradient in the western Gulf of Alaska.
There are several things that stand out with this pattern. One...a
deep fetch of moisture will get steered into southcentral.
Two...this is a warm wet airmass with tropical origins, so expect
snow in the mountains and either rain or some type of mix in the
lower elevations. Three...the pressure gradient its tight, so
expect winds. The heftiest amounts of QPF are anticipated for the
Prince William Sound area for this event but the dynamics are such
that the Anchorage Bowl can also expect precipitation with
confidence. The longwave trough that is supporting this stormy
pattern lingers throughout the longterm period, resulting in broad
cyclonic flow for much of the Bering too.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast period commences with an active pattern
Monday featuring a large low centered in the Eastern Aleutians
with multiple embedded shortwaves. The most prominent being an
impulse along a surface gradient in the western Gulf of Alaska.
There are several things that stand out with this pattern. One...a
deep fetch of moisture will get steered into Southcentral.
Two...this is a warm wet airmass with tropical origins, so expect
snow in the mountains and either rain or some type of mix in the
lower elevations. Three...the pressure gradient its tight, so
expect winds. The heftiest amounts of QPF are anticipated for the
Prince William Sound area for this event but the dynamics are such
that the Anchorage Bowl can also expect precipitation with some
confidence. The longwave trough that is supporting this stormy
pattern lingers throughout the longterm period, resulting in broad
cyclonic flow for much of the Bering too.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 131 (Thompson Pass).
Winter Weather Advisory 141 (South of Copper Center).
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 130 131 138 139 150 160 165 175>177
180.
Gale Warning 120 132 136 137 140 155 178 179 181 185.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...PJSThe office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 3:21 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Nov 9, 3:21 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Nov 9, 3:21 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Nov 9, 3:27 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 72 hr | |
| Nov 9, 3:28 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Nov 9, 3:28 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 61 hr | |
| Nov 9, 3:41 PM AKST | Blizzard Warning | AFC | 43 hr | |
| Nov 9, 3:41 PM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AFC | 65 hr | |
| Nov 10, 3:50 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 11 hr | |
| Nov 10, 4:00 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 59 hr | |
| Nov 10, 4:00 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 59 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.