Gale Warning 679, NWS Anchorage, AK

045 
FZAK52 PAFC 101300
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-110145-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 mb low 220 nm southwest of St Matthew Island moves to 25 nm 
west of Atka and dissipates in the North Pacific Sat night. A 1000 mb
low 45 nm east of Dutch Harbor moves into the North Pacific at 976 
mb Mon morning. A 985 mb low 400 nm south of Cold Bay Sun morning 
moves to 70 nm south of Cold Bay at 974 mb by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ150-110145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind to 30 kt early increasing to 50 kt. Seas 5 ft early
building to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-110145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon, Seas 8
ft. From the Shumagin Islands E, E wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in 
the afternoon, Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. 
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt except SE 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-110145-
Bristol Bay-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 11 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-110145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind 35 kt becoming
NE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft in the 
afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming SE after midnight. From Port
Moller E, SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-110145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-110145-
Unalaska Bay-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds early becoming NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft 
building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-110145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. Rain
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-110145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-110145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening.
.SUN...N wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-110145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms
in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening.
.SUN...N wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-110145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-110145-
Adak to Kiska-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt in the morning. Seas 20 ft. 
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-110145-
Kiska to Attu-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-110145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 45 kt after midnight. Seas 14
ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 50 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-110145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft early building to 14 
ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-110145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.  and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-110145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 25 kt becoming NE 40 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt becoming
NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 35 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 15 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Gale force winds associated with a strong low approaching Saint
Lawrence Island this morning are ongoing across nearly all of the
northern Bering Sea north of the Pribilofs this morning. Somewhat
colder air from off of Russia is overspreading the same areas,
leading to scattered snow showers across the region. The leading
edge of that activity is moving into Southwest Alaska this
morning, briefly lowering ceilings and visibilities as the
individual showers pass through. Since that cold air has moderated
quite a bit after crossing the relatively warm waters of the
Bering, surface temperatures across Southwest Alaska are largely
above freezing outside of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. The leading
edge of the cooler air mass is crossing the Alaska Range, which is
the reason clouds are increasing across portions of Southcentral
this morning. Meanwhile the low which brought rain to Cordova and
snow to Valdez and Glennallen has moved into the eastern Gulf,
resulting in a couple hundred miles of relatively clear skies
between it and the advancing front moving over the Alaska Range. A
weak area of low pressure tracking south of the central Aleutians
will help draw a much stronger low currently over the central
Pacific northward, which will be the main weather maker for
southern Alaska this weekend.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in reasonably good agreement through the short-
term, with the low over the northern Bering expected to wrap back
southward on Saturday, meeting up with a low moving northward out
of the north Pacific near the Alaska Peninsula on Saturday
morning. All of these features merge into one strong low over the
eastern Bering by Sunday morning. While there is good agreement
that all of the above occurs, the details of how and when all of
this happens are still very uncertain. The details are important
because the North Pacific low is expected to bring much warmer air
northward along with it, which will help to quickly change the
snow at the leading edge of it over to rain. Thus, overall large-
scale forecast confidence is high but individual details
confidence is much lower.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There is a
very slight chance of a snow shower or two late this morning into
this evening, but any that form are unlikely to worsen
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A trough pushing through Southcentral Alaska today will bring
a chance of light snow to the area, primarily in the mountains.
Most low lying areas should not see much, if any, new snow.
Ridging will then build in later today helping to clear out cloud
cover brought in by the trough. However, these conditions will be
short lived as a new system approaches the Gulf from the south.

The front associated with this new system will impact Kodiak
Island Saturday morning and make it to the north Gulf Coast by
Saturday evening. This system is pulling up warm air and a long
fetch of moisture resulting in a fair amount of rain for locations
all along the north Gulf Coast. Some locations further inland and
at higher elevations will at least start off as snow before
transitioning to rain. Most of the precip will be stopped by the
coastal mountains with areas beyond the coastal ranges expected to
see minimal precip. The system will also bring stronger winds to
the gaps for areas along the north Gulf Coast and the rain and
winds look to last through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level trough pushing into Southwest Alaska will
continue to push cold air and snow showers inland today before
tapering off overnight. The low level flow will turn easterly on
Saturday with very strong east to northeast winds increasing
rapidly ahead of a strong North Pacific frontal system tracking
up from the south. The main front will reach the Bristol Bay area
Saturday afternoon and continue to lift north over the Kuskokwim
Delta and Kuskokwim Valley through Saturday night. A secondary
frontal wave will lift north over the area Sunday and Sunday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A cold upper level low tracking off of the Kamchatka Peninsula
will swing a trough through the Western Aleutians this afternoon
and Central Aleutians tonight, while the upper low center tracks
east to the central Bering. The trough will continue to dig south
towards the North Pacific on Saturday as a strong north Pacific
low tracks north towards the Alaska Peninsula in response. The
deepening surface low will cross the Alaska Peninsula around
Saturday afternoon and then curve back to the west Saturday night
and then track south across the Eastern Aleutians on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sun night through Thu)...

The longer term forecast starts out in a very active pattern late
Sunday with a large and complex low centered in the Eastern
Aleutians with a secondary center along the front in the western
Gulf of Alaska. There is a col between these lows but a tight
pressure gradient along the front curving out of the Gulf of
Alaska...into Southcentral and Southwest Alaska and then through
most of the Bering Sea. The main low will take a round-about
route into the Gulf of Alaska through the middle of the week and
then into Southeast Alaska Thursday. While this is a rather
complex low and track, the good news is that there is fairly good
agreement on models, especially in the synoptic features, which
brings increased confidence in the main elements of the forecasts.

This pattern is bringing some very warm air to the southern mainland
and southeast Bering Sea for the start of the week. Therefore there
will be some windy and rainy areas which then will transition
back to snow showers with cooling temperatures aloft. The cold air
which was displaced to the northwest by this system will move
back over the region quickly in the Monday to Monday night
timeframe as the low further occludes and moves eastward. By next
Thursday, the mainland part of the state will once again be under
an upper level trough with a ridge over the central Bering Sea
leaving the area in generally dry pattern with seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Surf Advisory: 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 138 150.
Gale Warning: 120 130-132 136 137 139 155 160 165 175-178 180-185
351 352 411-414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...EZ