Gale Warning 680, NWS Anchorage, AK

713 
FZAK51 PAFC 110000
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-111245-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the northern Gulf associated with a 982 mb North 
Pacific low over the eastern Aleutians will slowly move east and 
weaken through Mon. A low pressure system will move into the 
southern Gulf Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-111245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft.
Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt except SE 45 kt near the coast. Seas 16 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-111245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-111245-
Resurrection Bay-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-111245-
Prince William Sound-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-111245-
Port Valdez-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-111245-
Valdez Narrows-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-111245-
Valdez Arm-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-111245-
Passage Canal-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-111245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-111245-
Barren Islands East-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-111245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. N
of Dangerous Cape, SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-111245-
Chiniak Bay-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 12
ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-111245-
Marmot Bay-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-111245-
Shelikof Strait-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 55 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 19
ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-111245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-111245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-111245-
Kachemak Bay-
300 PM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper level trough extends over the entirety of the
Bering. An upper level low anchoring this trough is centered
southwest of St. Lawrence Island. This low continues to bring
gale-force winds across the central and eastern Bering Sea today,
while the leading edge of the front associated with this low has
occluded and moved inland across Southwest Alaska. Behind the
front, showery precipitation is spreading in over the Pribilofs,
Southwest Alaska, and the northern AKPEN.

Looking south, an upper level ridge over the Gulf is gradually
moving eastward, allowing for an approaching North Pacific low
to become the main driver of the weather for this weekend.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in generally good agreement for the near-term. All
model solutions agree that the upper level Bering low will move
southward and phase with a North Pacific low over the southwestern
Gulf of Alaska Sunday morning. Models then struggle with the
movement of this phased upper-level low over the Gulf through
early next week. Currently, the GFS solution was preferred, though
higher resolution models were used to resolve localized wind
forecasts and QPF amounts in the short term.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Some MVFR conditions are expected early this evening,
becoming VFR later in the evening. VFR conditions are then most
likely through Saturday afternoon, but there is a chance of fog
late tonight through Saturday morning. Thus some VCFG was added
to the TAF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A fairly robust Bering trough will dive southeast across the
eastern Aleutians/AKPEN overnight and phase with a low ejecting
north from Hawaii. The Bering trough was already very convective
looking with even some lightning strikes/flashes today, and then
add in the tropical moisture surging north and the pump is primed
for an energetic system to develop. Speaking of that tropical
connection, this afternoon's layer precipitable water imagery
shows this surge is already taking shape, with the latest IVT
(Integrated Vapor Transport) showing forecasts of 300 to 400%
above normal.

An occluded front will move into the Gulf and approach coastal
locations during the day Saturday. Winds look to increase to Storm
Force over much of the northern Gulf, with Hurricane Force gusts
possible. This front will also bring precipitation to the region,
surging northward through the day.

Then, we'll experience a brief "lull" in the activity, as we'll
be in between systems with the AR shifting eastward and some
disturbances in the flow aloft passing overhead. as this occurs,
the surface front remains stalled along or just south of the
Southcentral coast allowing low-level colder air to remain in
place, while temperatures warm above freezing aloft (say above
4000 feet). This could bring some freezing rain to interior
locations Sunday morning.

On Sunday a new low will form and deepen south of the AKPEN. This
will influence the wind field as the pressure gradient tightens.
Significant rainfall is possible on the eastern Kenai Peninsula
Sunday evening into Monday morning, where some locations could
see 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in a 12 hour period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long term forecast period commences with an active pattern
Monday featuring a large low centered in the Eastern Aleutians
with multiple embedded shortwaves. The most prominent being an
impulse along a surface gradient in the western Gulf of Alaska.
There are several things that stand out with this pattern. One...a
deep fetch of moisture will get steered into southcentral.
Two...this is a warm wet airmass with tropical origins, so expect
snow in the mountains and either rain or some type of mix in the
lower elevations. Three...the pressure gradient its tight, so
expect winds. The heftiest amounts of QPF are anticipated for the
Prince William Sound area for this event but the dynamics are such
that the Anchorage Bowl can also expect precipitation with
confidence. The longwave trough that is supporting this stormy
pattern lingers throughout the longterm period, resulting in broad
cyclonic flow for much of the Bering too.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast period commences with an active pattern
Monday featuring a large low centered in the Eastern Aleutians
with multiple embedded shortwaves. The most prominent being an
impulse along a surface gradient in the western Gulf of Alaska.
There are several things that stand out with this pattern. One...a
deep fetch of moisture will get steered into Southcentral.
Two...this is a warm wet airmass with tropical origins, so expect
snow in the mountains and either rain or some type of mix in the
lower elevations. Three...the pressure gradient its tight, so
expect winds. The heftiest amounts of QPF are anticipated for the
Prince William Sound area for this event but the dynamics are such
that the Anchorage Bowl can also expect precipitation with some
confidence. The longwave trough that is supporting this stormy
pattern lingers throughout the longterm period, resulting in broad
cyclonic flow for much of the Bering too.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 131 (Thompson Pass).
 Winter Weather Advisory 141 (South of Copper Center).
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 130 131 138 139 150 160 165 175>177
                         180.
 Gale Warning 120 132 136 137 140 155 178 179 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...PJS