Gale Warning 675, NWS Anchorage, AK

870 
FZAK52 PAFC 091233
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-100115-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 991 mb low 150 nm southwest of Gambell moves into the northern
Bering and dissipates Sat morning. A 997 mb low forms 320 nm 
southwest of Saint Matthew Island midday Fri and moves to 95 nm 
southwest of Cold Bay at 978 mb on Sun morning. Its front moves 
across the Aleutians through Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-100115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-100115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt, Seas 8 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E, E
wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon, Seas 7 ft building to
14 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-100115-
Bristol Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-100115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind 30 kt increasing
to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft in the 
afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-100115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-100115-
Unalaska Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-100115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-100115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-100115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-100115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers 
and snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-100115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-100115-
Adak to Kiska-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft after
midnight. Snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-100115-
Kiska to Attu-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-100115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-100115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-100115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-100115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
333 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft subsiding to 16 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of 
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 13 ft. A slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt becoming 
NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

856 
FZAK52 PAFC 100028
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101345-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 999 mb low 300 nm northwest of Saint Paul dissipates Sat 
afternoon. A 978 mb North Pacific low moves 100 nm north of Dutch
Harbor at 970 mb Sat night. The low then moves 160 nm south of
Dutch Harbor at 971 mb Sun afternoon

$$

PKZ150-101345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, E wind 30 kt
becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101345-
Bristol Bay-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt becoming NE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 55 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind 35 kt becoming NE
45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101345-
Unalaska Bay-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101345-
Adak to Kiska-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming NW 50 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101345-
Kiska to Attu-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 10 
ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-101345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
328 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SE 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 25 kt becoming NE 40 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt becoming 
NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 45 kt. W of Saint 
Matthew Island, NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A gale force low over the northern Gulf is the main weather maker
across Southcentral Alaska. An 0720 UTC ASCAT satellite pass
confirmed the presence of gales well south of Seward and east of
Kodiak around the center of the low. Middleton Island radar shows
a large area of precipitation ongoing across Prince William Sound,
with Kenai radar showing associated precipitation bands pushing
westward towards Anchorage and Kenai. However, observations so far
show much of that precipitation over Anchorage is evaporating
before it hits the ground, so conditions have yet to deteriorate.
Relatively quiet, warm conditions are in place over Southwest
Alaska with nothing on radar. Across the Bering, the focus is a
storm-force low centered over the northwestern Bering off of the
Kamchatka Peninsula. An 0800 UTC ASCAT pass shows storm-force
winds from near the Kamchatka Peninsula extending southeastward
across a swath of the western Bering. The low is tapping much
colder air from off of Russia and moving it into the western
Bering behind an occluding front over the middle of the Bering,
approaching the Pribilofs.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models start out the short-term time period in very good
agreement, tracking the north Gulf low into the eastern Gulf by
tonight, and tracking the Kamchatka Peninsula low and its
associated front across the Bering and into Southwest Alaska
today. Agreement begins to diminish somewhat regarding a secondary
North Pacific low that is expected to exit the jet stream flow and
into the Southern Bering by Friday night. Likely due to a lack of
observations over the open waters of the Pacific, how this low is
handled regarding the speed and timing of arrival are still
somewhat in question. Yet another low expected to approach the
Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island on Saturday has even less
agreement. Regarding the Southcentral snowfall this morning,
there is still a some uncertainty as to how far west the snow
gets, how long it lasts, and how much accumulation is ultimately
seen. The model solutions on that have been highly variable the
past few days so there has been little temporal continuity.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and generally light winds will persist.
Light snow showers are possible this morning, but weaker than
expected radar returns so far with persistent dry air still
evident on the morning sounding suggests if any reduction to MVFR
conditions occurs, it will be brief and isolated. An even lesser
chance of a snow shower or two is possible again Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The Gulf low that has been bringing rain and snow to areas along
the north Gulf coast will weaken and track off to the east today
which will help to diminish precip over the area. By tonight only
light showers should linger over eastern portions of Southcentral
Alaska. On Friday a fragmented front will move in from the west
but with most of the energy of the supporting trough north of the
area very little new precip is expected for Southcentral Alaska.
On Saturday a new system will approach from the south bringing
strong winds back to the area as well as a long fetch of moisture
with more rain and snow expected for the north Gulf coast late
Saturday. Coastal locations look to be primarily rain while
inland locations and higher elevations should stay cold enough for
snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The small upper level ridge over the Kuskokwim Delta and upper
level shortwave trough approaching the western Alaska Range will
shift east today as the frontal system in the eastern Bering
approaches the coast. The front will track inland tonight, though
weaken rather quickly with snow showers tapering off by Friday
morning. Flat ridging will bring some clearing through the day
Friday and a cold night Friday night, however a frontal system
tracking up from the south on Saturday will bring more clouds,
precipitation and some rather strong easterly flow to the area,
particularly out of the gaps and passes in the Alaska/Aleutian
Range. The increasing easterly winds will warm up the Greater
Bristol Bay area rather quickly but will need to keep and eye on
the the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Valley where more entrenched
cold low level airmass and east-northeast winds may bring mixed
precipitation type concerns Saturday night as warmer air aloft
accompanying the frontal system overruns the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The strong low tracking east through the western Bering this
morning with an area of storm force winds to its south will begin
curving to the northeast to reach the northern Bering tonight,
leaving a broad area of cool, unstable westerly flow stretched
across the Bering. The cold air aloft will be further reinforced
by the next upper low diving south from the Kamchatka Peninsula
and into the western Bering tonight through Friday. Rather than
taking the same track as the previous several storms, the cold upper
trough will dig south across the central and eastern Aleutians
Friday night and Saturday, spinning up a couple of surface lows
along the way. In response to this large scale shift in the upper
level pattern, a developing north Pacific low will track north to
the Alaska Peninsula on Saturday bringing a supply of warmer,
moist air with it. Given the strong baroclinic zone between these
two air masses and jet support, it looks likely that the Saturday
low and accompanying frontal systems will be strong ones.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday night through Wednesday)...
A very stormy pattern is shaping up for mainland Alaska beginning
Saturday into Sunday and continuing through much of next week. A
strong polar jet digging out of Russia across the Bering Sea Friday
will continue to dig southward across the North Pacific Saturday
through Saturday night. This will cause a ridge to pump up downstream
across the east Pacific. The end result will be a high amplitude
pattern with a trough and deep closed low centered near and to the
south of the Alaska Peninsula and a strong southerly jet centered
along 150 degrees W longitude. Models indicate a tropical connection
with the trough digging as far south as 20 degrees N latitude.
Thus, expect development of an atmospheric river which will
transport abundant moisture and warmer air northward to the Gulf
of Alaska along with parts of Southcentral and Southwest Alaska.

Conditions will be extremely favorable for cyclogenesis out ahead
of the digging trough. Expect a series of lows to develop over
the Pacific and track up into the Gulf. Over time, the strength of
these systems will help push the upper ridge eastward, shifting
the anchor trough/low into the Gulf and shifting the atmospheric
river toward the eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska. As would be
expected in such a high amplitude/dynamic pattern, models differ
with handling of individual storm systems during this period.
However, based on the overall pattern described here, there is
high confidence in periods of heavy precipitation and high winds
along the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island and the Gulf of Alaska
on up to Prince William Sound and the Gulf Coast. With the
presence of the atmospheric river would expect precipitation to be
all rain near sea level, but heavy snow is a likelihood in
coastal mountain ranges. If the atmospheric river remains pointed
at the same general area for any length of time, flooding would
also be something to watch out for. The forecast for interior
portions of Southcentral and Southwest is a little trickier as
precipitation will depend heavily on track of storms, but would
generally expect periods of snow.

Meanwhile, back on the west side of the trough deep Arctic air
will pour southward across the Bering Sea and Aleutians Sunday
night through Tuesday. This will produce persistent strong and
gusty northerly winds along with showers. The air mass looks cold
enough that much of the precipitation will fall in the form of
snow. As the low along the Alaska Peninsula shifts into the Gulf
late next week this will allow a trough to move in from the
northwest Pacific, bringing storminess back to the Aleutian chain.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 185 411 412.
Gale Warning: 131 177-181 351 352 413 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...SEB