Gale Warning 634, NWS Anchorage, AK

621 
FZAK62 PAFC 100027
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
327 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-101415-
327 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 999 mb low at 59N 179W dissipates Sat afternoon. A 978 mb North
Pacific low moves to 55N 167W at 970 mb Sat night. The low then
moves to 51N 167W at 971 mb Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-101415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
327 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-101415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
327 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Snow and rain 
showers.
.SAT...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming N 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 24 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-101415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
327 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.  Snow and rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain showers
and snow showers.
.SUN...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 27 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-101415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
327 PM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

281 
FZAK62 PAFC 101300
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-110145-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1002 mb low at 58N 177W moves to 52N 175W and dissipates in the 
North Pacific Sat night. A 1000 mb low near 54N 165W moves to 51N 
160W at 976 mb Mon morning. A 985 mb low at 49N 162W Sun morning 
moves to 54N 163W at 974 mb by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-110145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-110145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind up to 20 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain showers. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the evening.
.SUN...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 24 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-110145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain showers. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening.
.SUN...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-110145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
400 AM AKST Sat Nov 10 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The mainland of Alaska is currently under the influence of a
very baggy long-wave trough that extends from the Arctic southward
to the Aleutians. One embedded short-wave is currently departing
Southcentral Alaska, while, further to the west, a much deeper
system is impacting the Bering Sea and southwest mainland. The
upper jet is feeding into the long-wave, streaming across the
Aleutians. A secondary short-wave trough is digging on the
backside of the long-wave.

The system currently in the northern Gulf is weakening this
afternoon as it moves east, pushed by the building ridging ahead
of the next system. Despite light RADAR returns over Anchorage and
the Matanuska Valley all morning long, moisture was not able to
overcome the dry air at the surface, resulting in only
flurries/very light snow over eastern Anchorage and the Hillside.
However, closer to the actual surface low pressure, Cordova and
Valdez have experienced rain and snow, respectively.

The front associated with the Bering Sea system is affecting the
southwest coast; southeast winds are approaching gale-force.
Behind the front, a very convective-looking atmosphere exists with
plenty of cellular clouds, but not much has been reported along
the lines of gusty winds or showers.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Guidance is in good agreement with the large-scale pattern for the
next few days. Consensus is that digging short-wave in the Bering
trough will become the new long-wave center, while at the same
time phasing with a piece of energy cut off in the sub-tropics.
The details are still hazy but there looks to be a strong front
coming into the region by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Tonight through Sunday)

An area of low pressure continues to spin near Middleton Island,
bringing areas of rain and snow to locations east of a line from
the eastern Kenai through Paxson. Low-level dry air won the battle
overnight for locations to the west of here, as this mornings
sounding showed a wedge of dry air remained below 4000 feet. Look
for the precipitation tonight to gradually decrease in coverage
and intensity as it shifts east.

Our attention then turns to the next storm heading north towards
the eastern Aleutians/AKPEN. This storm will be rapidly deepening
as it heads north sending an occluded front towards the Gulf and
Southcentral. A deep moist fetch will precede the front, as the
moisture originates from near Hawaii. Current forecasts show
precipitable water values of 4 to 6 standard deviations above
normal. Needless to say, this system will have plenty of
precipitation with it. So the obvious next question is
precipitation type. Right now its too early to pin down who gets
what and how much, but, one thing is for sure. For locations near
the coast (if not further north) it'll warm up as the models show
850 mb temperatures increasing from the -8 to -10 range to +5 deg.
C in a 36 hour period. With such a strong 850mb front,
precipitation will be likely into at least the southern third to
half as Southcentral, even if the surface front hangs up near the
coast (looks like a strong barrier jet will develop, as an over-
running setup develops. Stay tuned !

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A very active pattern is underway as an occluded front is rapidly
moving inland across Southwest this evening. The front will weaken
as it moves inland, but expect a burst of snow for inland areas as
the front moves east tonight. Rain and show showers will follow
behind the front mainly along the coast as instability driven
showers move in with increasing onshore flow.

Ridging aloft will dry the region out Friday night before the next
round of active weather begins as a Pacific low moves a powerful
warm front into Southwest. This will bring threats for snow along
with a mix of rain, but some areas may see decent accumulations
east of King Salmon and west of the Western Capes Sat and into
Saturday evening. Along with E-NE winds of 35-50 MPH, this may
result in quite a bit of blowing snow as it falls which may
dramatically reduce visibility. Strong offshore winds will slowly
diminish Sunday as the front lifts north of the region but will
still remain gusty.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A powerful storm force low is moving across the western Bering Sea
with the associated occluded front moving inland across the
Southwest Alaska coast. Seas near the core of the low are in
excess of 35 feet, but these winds and seas will dramatically
diminish by Friday morning. Thereafter, broad cyclonic flow will
develop over the Bering Sea with gales over both the western and
eastern Bering Sea before the next powerful storm force low drives
into the eastern Bering Sea on Saturday then moves over into the
central Bering by Sunday, reinforcing the stout northerly cold air
advection winds over the western half of the Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sun night through Thu)...

The longer term forecast starts out in a very active pattern late
Sunday with a large and complex low centered in the Eastern
Aleutians with a secondary center along the front in the western
Gulf of Alaska. There is a cull between these lows but a tight
pressure gradient along the front curving out of the Gulf of
Alaska...into Southcentral and Southwest Alaska and then through
most of the Bering Sea. The main low will take a round about route
into the Gulf of Alaska through the middle of the week and then
into Southeast Alaska Thursday. While this is a rather complex low
and track, the good news is that there is fairly good agreement
on models, especially in the synoptic features, which brings
increased confidence in the main elements of the forecasts.

This pattern is bringing some very warm air to the southern mainland
and southeast Bering Sea for the start of the week. Therefore there
will be some windy and rainy areas which then will transition
back to snow showers with cooling temperatures aloft. The cold air
which was displaced to the northwest by this system will move
back over the region quickly in the Monday to Monday night
timeframe as the low further occludes and moves eastward. By next
Thursday, the mainland part of the state will once again be under
an upper level trough with a ridge over the central Bering Sea
leaving the area in generally dry pattern with seasonal
temperatures.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Surf Advisory public zone 155.
None. MARINE...Storms 185
412. Gales 175-181 351 411 412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD/SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...EZ