Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR to MVFR cigs to lower to MVFR during the TAF period at all sites as
TSRA coverage increase as a cold front and upper system approach. Some
uncertainty concerning coverage and duration of
convection...therefore will be addressed with a series of tempo
groups at all sites. RA/TSRA to diminish in areal coverage
overnight as the upper system moves through. MVFR cigs to prevail
at all sites for the last portion of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the forecast area today through this evening. Exactly how
we get to that point is muddled. Early morning convection was more
extensive than numerical models realize and a noticeable
overturning of low level moisture has occurred across NE OK and
far NW AR. To what extent this impacts later day storms is unclear
as the currently untampered warm sector across SE OK may be
impacted by early morning convection currently streaming
northeastward across N Texas. Ultimately by early afternoon
sufficient instability and deep layer shear is expected to reside
across much of the forecast area with storms becoming most
numerous ahead of the upper low and along the advancing cold
front. Large hail, possibly damaging size, is the most likely
hazard with the initial storms with an increasing potential for
locally damaging winds as the storms become more numerous and the
cold front continues southeastward. Further south the dryline may
become active by afternoon and would also provide a focus for
severe storm development. Low level wind fields continue to be
shown as meager and any tornadic potential would likely be more of
a localized accident as opposed to a focused favored zone.

Convection will continue into the overnight hours but the
strongest storms will likely be east of the forecast area by late
evening. Lingering showers persist into Friday along with cooler
temps. Saturday looks like a winner with a quick warming trend
underway by Sunday and above normal temps for much of next week.
The pattern continues to look rather unsettled especially for the
latter half of next week.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
509 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
509 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Limited risk this morning...higher severe chances this afternoon

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma...and far Southeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms that moved through northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas last night have pushed well east of the area. Focus will
now turn towards additional development across south central
Oklahoma...as well as storms to the north and west along an
approaching cold front.

Activity currently across south central Oklahoma likely will push
into portions of southeast Oklahoma later this morning. While
instability across this area was not hampered from overnight
convection...severe potential with these storms is expected to
remain limited during the morning hours.

By early afternoon...cold air aloft associated with the upper low
will aid in destabilizing the atmosphere across northeast Oklahoma
ahead of the approaching cold front. Scattered storms that can
develop ahead of the front will carry a large hail threat to the
size of tennis balls...especially across northeast Oklahoma during
the early afternoon. As the front progresses further east and
southeast...the severe threat will transition towards damaging
straightline winds as storms organize into a line along the front.

Across far southeast Oklahoma later in the afternoon...it is
possible that instability will be maximized should that area
remain convection free up to that point. Wind gusts to 70 mph
will be possible with severe bow segments should that environment
remain most favorable ahead of the front.

Additionally...soils remain saturated across much of northeast
Oklahoma from recent rainfall. While areal flooding and mainstem
river flooding have subsided...additional rainfall across
northeast Oklahoma may result in a quick uptick in rises for area
rivers...and also may create additional flooding issues given the
saturated conditions in place.

The risk for severe weather will diminish during the evening as
the front moves further away from the area. Thunderstorms will
likely continue the overnight period...especially across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the upper low clears
the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY Through MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Cooler and settled conditions will settle across the area from west to
east on Friday. Warmer temperatures are expected through the
weekend and will continue into at least the first part of next
week. Thunderstorm chances will be on the increase once again in
the Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper system to the northwest
begins to impact the region.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

ARZ001-010-OKZ069-110615-
Benton AR-Washington AR-Adair OK-
1232 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BENTON...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM
CDT...

At 1231 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles west of Gentry to near Baron. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Rogers...                         Siloam Springs...
Lowell...                         Farmington...
Gentry...                         Tontitown...
Cave Springs...                   Westville...
Highfill...                       Watts...
Springtown...                     Cincinnati...
Johnson...                        Elm Springs...
Oak Grove...                      Savoy...
Ballard...                        Rhea...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 70 and 83.

LAT...LON 3634 9412 3603 9422 3594 9463 3616 9458
      3616 9456 3620 9457 3625 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 240DEG 41KT 3625 9455 3595 9462

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