Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Tulsa, OK

679 
WWUS54 KTSA 112328
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
628 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

OKC035-097-131-143-112338-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0249.000000T0000Z-170511T2330Z/
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-Tulsa OK-
628 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CRAIG...CENTRAL
ROGERS...NORTHERN MAYES AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 630 PM CDT...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3615 9580 3631 9590 3663 9517 3638 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 245DEG 39KT 3648 9522 

$$

Lacy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
222 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concern is the ongoing severe thunderstorm and heavy
rain potential across much of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas.

Widespread thunderstorm development continues across eastern and
northern Oklahoma early this afternoon and will continue into at
least early to mid evening as the upper low in northwest Oklahoma
approaches and eventually moves overhead. The strongest storms
this afternoon and early evening should be north of Interstate 40,
where the greatest instabilities are located. This area will also
be beneath the track of the upper low and the coldest temperatures
aloft. Very large hail, potentially to baseball size, will be the
primary severe weather threat, in addition to damaging winds.
However, a very localized tornado threat will also continue near
and just north of Interstate 44 as a result of a lingering
boundary, a scenario supported by local model data.

In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall
from the strongest thunderstorms could cause flash flooding,
especially in parts of northeast Oklahoma that saw a lot of rain
last night and early this morning. The Flash Flood Watch will
continue through mid evening.

Additional thunderstorms may redevelop farther south into
southeast Oklahoma during the mid to late evening hours, which
would continue to have a severe potential, albeit lesser than the
storms to the north. Showers will continue into the day on
Friday, especially across far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas, with a clearing from west to east through the day.

Cooler temperatures will follow the upper low and attendant cold
front for Friday and even into Saturday, before southerly winds
and above normal temperatures make a return on Sunday. Warm and
dry weather will persist into early next week, with low
thunderstorm chances returning toward the middle part of the week.
The next best chance of thunderstorms, including some severe
weather potential, should hold off until the Thursday-Friday time
frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  75  51  79 /  80  20   0   0
FSM   62  75  53  80 /  80  50   0   0
MLC   60  73  52  79 /  60  20   0   0
BVO   58  74  46  79 /  80  10   0   0
FYV   58  71  46  76 /  80  50   0   0
BYV   58  70  49  76 /  80  50   0   0
MKO   59  73  51  79 /  70  30   0   0
MIO   59  73  49  78 /  80  20   0   0
F10   59  73  51  78 /  60  20   0   0
HHW   61  74  54  80 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>063-
     067>069.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-
     010-011.

&&

LONG TERM....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
452 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
452 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

...Severe thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon with large hail and damaging winds likely...

...Flash Flood Watch in effect for NE OK/NW AR through 10 PM...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast OK mainly north of a line from Okmulgee to Tahlequah.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

 AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma mainly north of
 Interstate 40. Isolated severe storms are possible across SE OK
 this evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon across northeast
Oklahoma. The leading edge of a line of storms was moving across
Osage, Pawnee and Creek Counties and will affect portions of
Bartlesville and the Tulsa metro area between 5 and 6 PM. Storms
will affect far northeast Oklahoma including Vinita, Pryor and
Muskogee after 7 PM. Strong wind fields and moderate instability
will support isolated tornadoes with this activity in addition to
hail and damaging winds. In addition to severe weather, flash
flooding is likely in portions of northeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY through MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY and Wednesday...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Cooler and settled conditions will settle across the area from
west to east on Friday. Warmer temperatures are expected through
the weekend and will continue into at least the first part of next
week. Thunderstorm chances will be on the increase once again in
the Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper system to the northwest
begins to impact the region.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Severe warnings will likely continue through the early evening
hours for northeast Oklahoma. Listen for the latest information
for your area and take appropriate severe weather preparedness
actions.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

CORFIDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             1 S HALLETT             36.22N 96.57W
05/11/2017  E0.88 INCH       PAWNEE             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED AT HIGHWAY 99 AND THE CIMARRON TURNPIKE/HIGHWAY
            412.

0415 PM     HAIL             3 N OILTON              36.13N 96.58W
05/11/2017  E0.75 INCH       CREEK              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
433 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             PAWHUSKA                36.67N 96.34W
05/11/2017  E1.25 INCH       OSAGE              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
448 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 ESE FORAKER           36.83N 96.43W
05/11/2017  M63 MPH          OSAGE              OK   MESONET

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW SPERRY             36.25N 96.05W
05/11/2017  M75 MPH          OSAGE              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
511 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             SAND SPRINGS            36.14N 96.11W
05/11/2017  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
538 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOMINY                  36.41N 96.39W
05/11/2017                   OSAGE              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS UP TO 3 INCHES DOWNED. SEVERAL BIG
            TREES BLOWN DOWN. ONE HOME WITH ROOF DAMAGE. TIME
            ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

KAH