Alert archive / Oklahoma / River Flood Warnings in 2017

River Flood Warning 54, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 11, 2017Ottawa County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this river flood warning at May 11, 2017, 2:28 PM CDT for Ottawa County, Oklahoma. It took effect at May 12, 2017, 1:51 AM CDT. It was in force for 66 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 11, 2017, 2:28 PM CDT (19:28 UTC)
In effect from
May 12, 2017, 1:51 AM CDT
Expired
May 14, 2017, 7:57 PM CDT
In force
66 hr
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Ottawa County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Neosho River near Commerce (COMO2). The gauge peaked at 19.22 ft at May 13, 2017, 6:00 PM CDT.

actionminormoderate510152005/1105/1205/1305/1405/1505/16
Action stage
14 ft
Minor stage
15 ft
Moderate stage
18 ft
Major stage
24 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07185000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

282 
WGUS44 KTSA 111928
FLWTSA
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
228 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017


...The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a Flood Warning 
for the following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-120328-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0054.170512T1336Z-170515T0048Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.170512T1336Z.170513T1200Z.170514T1848Z.NO/
228 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Neosho River near Commerce
* from Friday morning to Sunday evening, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  1:30 PM Thursday, the stage was 10.08 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce is expected to rise above
  flood stage Friday morning and continue to rise to near 17.8 feet 
  by Saturday morning. The river is expected to fall below flood 
  stage early Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with 
  Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying 
  places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510

$$
12 follow-up statements
881 
WGUS84 KTSA 120206
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
906 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-121006-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0054.170512T1336Z-170515T0048Z/
/COMO2.1.ER.170512T1336Z.170513T1200Z.170514T1848Z.NO/
906 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neosho River near Commerce.
* from Friday morning to Sunday evening, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8:30 PM Thursday, the stage was 12.27 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce is expected to rise above
  flood stage Friday morning and continue to rise to near 17.8 feet 
  by Saturday morning. The river is expected to fall below flood 
  stage early Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with 
  Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying 
  places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510

$$
817 
WGUS44 KTSA 120652
FLWTSA
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
152 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017



...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-121452-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0054.170512T0651Z-170515T1510Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.170512T0536Z.170514T0000Z.170515T0910Z.NO/
152 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Neosho River near Commerce
* until Monday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 1:30 AM Friday, the stage was 15.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce will continue rising to 
  near 20.7 feet Saturday evening. The river will fall below flood 
  stage early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs. Some 
  roads within Riverview Park become flooded including State Highway 
  125 near the fairgrounds.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510

$$
189 
WGUS84 KTSA 121304
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
804 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-122104-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-170515T1940Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.170512T0536Z.170514T0000Z.170515T1340Z.NO/
804 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neosho River near Commerce.
* until Monday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:30 AM Friday, the stage was 17.09 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce will continue rising to 
  near 19.9 feet Saturday evening. The river is expected to fall 
  below flood stage Monday morning.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs. Some 
  roads within Riverview Park become flooded including State Highway 
  125 near the fairgrounds.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510

$$
186 
WGUS84 KTSA 121923
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
223 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Verdigris River near Lenapah affecting Nowata County. 
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
  Arkansas River near Muskogee affecting Muskogee County. 
  
OKC113-143-130323-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-170513T1830Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.170512T1445Z.170513T0000Z.170513T1230Z.NO/
223 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* until Saturday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:00 PM Friday, the stage was 23.79 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Bird Creek near Sperry will continue rising to near 
  24.9 feet this evening. The river is expected to fall below flood 
  stage Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, moderate flooding occurs in rural areas from 
  Skiatook to Turley. Area roads may be flooded.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9593 3620 9590 3620 9598 3640 9605

$$

OKC131-143-130323-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-170514T0430Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.170512T1034Z.170512T1830Z.170513T2230Z.NO/
223 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until Saturday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:30 PM Friday, the stage was 29.66 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is cresting.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will begin to falling
  this afternoon and will continue falling to below flood stage by
  Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs. Rural 
  roads near the main channel may become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3643 9580 3636 9564 3630 9570 3635 9588

$$

OKC115-130323-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-170515T2010Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.170512T0536Z.170514T0000Z.170515T1410Z.NO/
223 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neosho River near Commerce.
* until Monday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:30 PM Friday, the stage was 18.04 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce will continue rising to 
  near 20.1 feet Saturday evening. The river is expected to fall 
  below flood stage late Monday morning.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs. 
  Riverview Park experiences moderate flooding. State Highway 125 
  near the fairgrounds will be closed.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510

$$

OKC101-130323-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-170517T1200Z/
/MKGO2.1.ER.170428T1009Z.170514T1800Z.170517T0600Z.NO/
223 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River near Muskogee.
* until Wednesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:00 PM Friday, the stage was 27.94 feet.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Arkansas River near Muskogee is expected to remain 
  near flood stage and then may rise to near 30.2 feet by early Sunday
  afternoon. The river is expected to fall back to near flood stage 
  Tuesday. This forecast will likely be adjusted as upstream releases
  change. Conintue to monitor updated forecasts.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet, a boating marina north of OG&E power plant is
  flooded. Some agricultural lands are flooded.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3583 9520 3552 9507 3547 9515 3559 9532 3583 9537

$$

OKC105-121953-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-170513T0600Z/
/LEPO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
223 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Verdigris River near Lenapah.
* At  2:00 PM Friday, the stage was 28.50 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Verdigris River near Lenapah will crest below flood 
  stage near 28.7 feet this evening. Therefore, this warning is 
  cancelled.

 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9550 3671 9548 3671 9564 3700 9568

$$
806 
WGUS84 KTSA 130155
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
855 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-130955-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-170515T1424Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.170512T0536Z.170514T0000Z.170515T0824Z.NO/
855 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neosho River near Commerce.
* until Monday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:30 PM Friday, the stage was 18.67 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce will continue rising to 
  near 19.8 feet Saturday evening. The river is expected to fall 
  below flood stage early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs. 
  Riverview Park experiences moderate flooding. State Highway 125 
  near the fairgrounds will be closed.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510

$$

Lacy
465 
WGUS84 KTSA 130655
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
155 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-131455-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-170515T1424Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.170512T0536Z.170514T0000Z.170515T0824Z.NO/
155 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neosho River near Commerce.
* until Monday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 1:30 AM Saturday, the stage was 19.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce will continue rising to 
  near 19.8 feet this evening. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs. 
  Riverview Park experiences moderate flooding. State Highway 125 
  near the fairgrounds will be closed.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510

$$
379 
WGUS84 KTSA 131326
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
826 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-132126-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-170515T1429Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.170512T0536Z.170513T1800Z.170515T0829Z.NO/
826 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Monday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neosho River near Commerce.
* until Monday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:30 AM Saturday, the stage was 19.14 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce will continue rising to 
  near 19.2 feet Sunday before dawn. The river is expected to fall 
  below flood stage early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, low lying areas around Miami become cut off 
  from easy access. Riverview Park experiences moderate flooding. 
  State Highway 125 near the fairgrounds will be threatened.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510

$$
086 
WGUS84 KTSA 131908
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
208 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-140308-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-170515T1101Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.170512T0536Z.170513T1815Z.170515T0501Z.NO/
208 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neosho River near Commerce.
* until Monday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:30 PM Saturday, the stage was 19.23 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by Monday before dawn .
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, low lying areas around Miami become cut off 
  from easy access. Riverview Park experiences moderate flooding. 
  State Highway 125 near the fairgrounds will be threatened.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510

$$
890 
WGUS84 KTSA 140138
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
838 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-140938-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-170515T0810Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.170512T0536Z.170513T2145Z.170515T0210Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neosho River near Commerce.
* until late Sunday night, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:30 PM Saturday, the stage was 19.21 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by late Sunday evening.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, low lying areas around Miami become cut off 
  from easy access. Riverview Park experiences moderate flooding. 
  State Highway 125 near the fairgrounds will be threatened.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510

$$
674 
WGUS84 KTSA 141349
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
849 AM CDT Sun May 14 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-142149-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-170515T0204Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.170512T0536Z.170513T2145Z.170514T2004Z.NO/
849 AM CDT Sun May 14 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neosho River near Commerce.
* until this evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 7:30 AM Sunday, the stage was 18.21 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by late this afternoon.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs with 
  Riverview Park experiencing minor to moderate flooding. Low lying 
  places around Miami may be cut off from easy access.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510

$$
715 
WGUS84 KTSA 141852
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
152 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-150058-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-170515T0058Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.170512T0536Z.170513T2145Z.170514T1858Z.NO/
152 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neosho River near Commerce.
* until this evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 11:30 AM Sunday, the stage was 16.62 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by this afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs. Riverview
  Park experiences minor flooding.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510

$$
769 
WGUS84 KTSA 150057
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
757 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Neosho River near Commerce affecting Ottawa County. 
  
OKC115-150127-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-170515T0058Z/
/COMO2.2.ER.170512T0536Z.170513T2145Z.170514T1949Z.NO/
757 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Neosho River near Commerce.
* At  7:30 PM Sunday, the stage was 12.63 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage this afternoon.
* Forecast...The Neosho River near Commerce will continue falling and
  remain below flood stage.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3700 9491 3689 9478 3681 9488 3700 9510

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 11, 2:22 PM CDT, 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 11, 2:22 PM CDT, 6 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
222 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concern is the ongoing severe thunderstorm and heavy
rain potential across much of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas.

Widespread thunderstorm development continues across eastern and
northern Oklahoma early this afternoon and will continue into at
least early to mid evening as the upper low in northwest Oklahoma
approaches and eventually moves overhead. The strongest storms
this afternoon and early evening should be north of Interstate 40,
where the greatest instabilities are located. This area will also
be beneath the track of the upper low and the coldest temperatures
aloft. Very large hail, potentially to baseball size, will be the
primary severe weather threat, in addition to damaging winds.
However, a very localized tornado threat will also continue near
and just north of Interstate 44 as a result of a lingering
boundary, a scenario supported by local model data.

In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall
from the strongest thunderstorms could cause flash flooding,
especially in parts of northeast Oklahoma that saw a lot of rain
last night and early this morning. The Flash Flood Watch will
continue through mid evening.

Additional thunderstorms may redevelop farther south into
southeast Oklahoma during the mid to late evening hours, which
would continue to have a severe potential, albeit lesser than the
storms to the north. Showers will continue into the day on
Friday, especially across far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas, with a clearing from west to east through the day.

Cooler temperatures will follow the upper low and attendant cold
front for Friday and even into Saturday, before southerly winds
and above normal temperatures make a return on Sunday. Warm and
dry weather will persist into early next week, with low
thunderstorm chances returning toward the middle part of the week.
The next best chance of thunderstorms, including some severe
weather potential, should hold off until the Thursday-Friday time
frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  75  51  79 /  80  20   0   0
FSM   62  75  53  80 /  80  50   0   0
MLC   60  73  52  79 /  60  20   0   0
BVO   58  74  46  79 /  80  10   0   0
FYV   58  71  46  76 /  80  50   0   0
BYV   58  70  49  76 /  80  50   0   0
MKO   59  73  51  79 /  70  30   0   0
MIO   59  73  49  78 /  80  20   0   0
F10   59  73  51  78 /  60  20   0   0
HHW   61  74  54  80 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>063-
     067>069.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-
     010-011.

&&

LONG TERM....22
Hazardous weather outlook, May 11, 1:19 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
119 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
119 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

...Severe weather expected this afternoon with very large hail and
   damaging winds likely...

...Flash flood watch in effect for NE OK/NW AR through 10 PM...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

TORNADO.
     RISK...Limited to elevated.
     AREA...Northeastern Oklahoma.
     ONSET...early to mid afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...early to mid afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest
    Arkansas.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This afternoon through the evening hours.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon through the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to rapidly
develop this afternoon across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Very large hail to the size of baseballs and damaging
winds will be possible, especially with any supercells that
initially develop. Although low level winds are expected to remain
light, a limited to elevated tornado threat will exists over
portions of northeast Oklahoma near a stationary boundary located
just north of I-44.  Given the very unstable air-mass in place, any
deviant storm motions could locally enhance low level storm rotation.

Additionally...soils remain saturated across much of northeast
Oklahoma from recent rainfall. Locally heavy rain will be likely in
the stronger storms this afternoon into the evening hours. 1 to 3
inches of rainfall is expected and locally 4 inches possible. Any
additional rainfall will likely lead to excessive runoff.

The risk for severe weather will diminish by mid to late evening as
the front begins to shift east. A few thunderstorms could persist
into the overnight hours...especially across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas before the upper low clears the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY Through MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Cooler and settled conditions will settle
across the area from west to east on Friday. Warmer temperatures are
expected through the weekend and will continue into at least the
first part of next week. Thunderstorm chances will be on the
increase once again in the Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper system
to the northwest begins to impact the region.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 11, 1:32 PM CDT, 56 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
132 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 PM     HAIL             OKMULGEE                35.62N 95.96W
05/11/2017  E0.75 INCH       OKMULGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RJS
Special weather statement, May 11, 1:34 PM CDT, 54 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
134 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

OKZ060-067-111900-
Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
134 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND
SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 133 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles south of
Bixby, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Eastern Tulsa...                  Broken Arrow...
Bixby...                          Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Coweta...
Stonebluff...                     Oneta...
Liberty...                        Leonard...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 225 and 230.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3617 9589 3608 9558 3608 9557 3586 9572
      3586 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 213DEG 31KT 3590 9590
Local storm report, May 11, 1:57 PM CDT, 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
157 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     HAIL             3 NW BROKEN ARROW       36.08N 95.83W
05/11/2017  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON THE BROKEN ARROW
            EXPRESSWAY AT 129TH EAST AVENUE.

&&

KAH
Local storm report, May 11, 1:59 PM CDT, 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
159 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     HAIL             2 SSE CATOOSA           36.16N 95.73W
05/11/2017  E0.88 INCH       WAGONER            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT INTERSTATE 44 AND HIGHWAY 412.

&&

KAH
Local storm report, May 11, 2:04 PM CDT, 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
204 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             2 S CATOOSA             36.16N 95.75W
05/11/2017  E1.75 INCH       WAGONER            OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

KAH
Special weather statement, May 11, 2:19 PM CDT, 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
219 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

OKZ057-058-063-111945-
Craig OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
219 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...NORTHWESTERN
DELAWARE AND SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 219 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest of
Ketchum, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...                         Fairland...
Afton...                          Bernice...
Ketchum...                        Bluejacket...
Disney...                         Cleora...
Narcissa...                       Bernice State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 283 and 304.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3677 9475 3647 9499 3648 9501 3651 9501
      3651 9508 3656 9519 3689 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 213DEG 16KT 3659 9506

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 10, 9:31 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACreek, Pawnee44 min
May 10, 9:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACreek, Pawnee34 min
May 10, 10:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACreek, Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa38 min
May 10, 10:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSANowata, Osage, Rogers, Tulsa, Washington42 min
May 10, 10:43 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSATulsa, Wagoner47 min
May 10, 11:06 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAMayes, Nowata, Rogers, Washington39 min
May 10, 11:11 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAWagoner34 min
May 10, 11:15 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACraig30 min
May 10, 11:36 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACraig, Ottawa39 min
May 10, 11:38 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSADelaware, Mayes52 min
May 10, 11:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSADelaware35 min
May 10, 11:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Ottawa46 min
May 11, 6:28 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSATulsa32 min
May 11, 6:50 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSATulsa25 min
May 11, 7:18 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAWashington27 min
May 11, 7:33 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSARogers27 min
May 11, 7:42 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAWashington33 min
May 11, 7:53 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAMayes37 min
May 11, 8:19 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSADelaware26 min
May 11, 8:27 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Delaware, Ottawa48 min
May 11, 10:53 AM CDTFlash Flood WatchTSAAdair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Nowata and 6 more11 hr
May 11, 1:02 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAMuskogee28 min
May 11, 1:10 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAOkfuskee35 min
May 11, 1:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMuskogee, Okmulgee28 min
May 11, 1:34 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSATulsa26 min
May 11, 1:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMuskogee, Okmulgee, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner47 min
May 11, 1:52 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSACreek, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Osage, Rogers, Tulsa and 1 more113 min
May 11, 1:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSARogers, Tulsa52 min
May 11, 2:02 PM CDTTornado WarningTSARogers28 min
May 11, 2:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAOsage, Pawnee34 min
May 11, 2:19 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACraig26 min
May 11, 2:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSARogers, Tulsa36 min
May 11, 2:29 PM CDTTornado WarningTSARogers15 min
May 11, 2:31 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSALatimer29 min
May 11, 2:33 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSACraig, Delaware, Mayes, Nowata, Ottawa, Rogers and 1 more57 min
May 11, 2:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Nowata34 min
May 11, 2:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Delaware, Ottawa38 min
May 11, 2:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAOsage, Washington13 min
May 11, 2:58 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSALeFlore32 min
May 11, 3:17 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSACraig, Delaware, Nowata, Ottawa, Rogers4 hr
May 11, 3:20 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSALeFlore25 min
May 11, 3:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAOsage, Pawnee53 min
May 11, 3:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAOsage52 min
May 11, 3:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACreek, Osage, Pawnee40 min
May 11, 4:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAOsage44 min
May 11, 4:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAOsage23 min
May 11, 4:25 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSAOsage, Pawnee3 hr
May 11, 4:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACreek, Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa50 min
May 11, 4:31 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAOsage29 min
May 11, 4:33 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAOsage27 min
May 11, 4:46 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAOsage, Washington29 min
May 11, 4:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAOsage, Washington38 min
May 11, 5:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACreek, Mayes, Okmulgee, Osage, Rogers, Tulsa and 2 more40 min
May 11, 5:06 PM CDTTornado WarningTSANowata, Rogers, Washington24 min
May 11, 5:24 PM CDTTornado WarningTSANowata, Rogers, Washington18 min
May 11, 5:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Mayes, Rogers, Tulsa48 min
May 11, 5:52 PM CDTTornado WarningTSARogers23 min
May 11, 6:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSARogers, Tulsa, Wagoner41 min
May 11, 6:10 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAMayes, Rogers16 min
May 11, 6:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMuskogee, Okmulgee, Wagoner51 min
May 11, 6:30 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAMayes45 min
May 11, 6:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Delaware, Mayes28 min
May 11, 6:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Delaware, Mayes, Ottawa52 min
May 11, 6:55 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAMuskogee35 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Oklahoma, 2017Every river flood warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.