Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Tulsa, OK

736 
WWUS54 KTSA 280131
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
831 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

OKC035-097-280140-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0305.000000T0000Z-170528T0200Z/
Craig OK-Mayes OK-
831 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG AND
NORTHEASTERN MAYES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3667 9462 3650 9462 3625 9458 3635 9500
      3667 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 281DEG 36KT 3645 9480 

$$

OKC041-280200-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0305.000000T0000Z-170528T0200Z/
Delaware OK-
831 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR DELAWARE COUNTY...

At 830 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Jay, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Grove...
Colcord...                        Bernice...
Cleora...                         Chloeta...
Honey Creek State Park...         Bernice State Park...
Zena...                           Lake Eucha State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

If on or near grand lake, get away from the water and move indoors 
or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles 
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close 
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now!  Do not 
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3667 9462 3650 9462 3625 9458 3635 9500
      3667 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 281DEG 36KT 3645 9480 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

69

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
An extremely unstable airmass over the region ahead of a cold
front and dryline will set the stage for numerous severe
thunderstorms over the region this TAF period. The most likely
time window at each site was the time frame used in the Tempo
groups. VFR conditions will prevail outside of storms this
evening, with IFR potential if storms hit the airports. MVFR and
possibly even IFR cigs will overspread the region behind the
front, with a trend toward VFR on Sunday as cooler and drier air
in the low levels moves into the region.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 259 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Conditions are prime for significant severe weather later this
afternoon and overnight across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Extreme instability is currently in place and effective
shear values are supportive of organized updrafts. These
conditions will support all modes of severe weather including
destructive winds, giant hail, and possibly a few strong
tornadoes.

The details on how the eventual convection evolves are less clear
however a likely scenario is of supercells initiating both along
the boundary from NE OK into far NW AR, and further south
along the dryline in south central OK. Currently expanding mid
cloud across central OK is likely a zone of enhanced lift yet to
overspread the region. The capping inversion has continued to
weaken and any further lift along with localized sfc convergence
is expected to spark storm development. Storms further south along
the dryline may be more delayed in development but nevertheless
will also pose significant severe weather potential. The severe
weather threat will continue into the overnight hours awaiting
the passing cold front to clear the area from northwest to
southeast.

The remainder of the forecast is expected to be rather tranquil as
dry weather prevails for early week with increasing thunderstorm
chances for mid to late week. Flow aloft is forecast to weaken
considerably as the westerlies lift well north thus reducing the
severe weather potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  81  58  87 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   71  83  60  87 /  70  10   0   0
MLC   67  80  57  86 /  70  10   0   0
BVO   62  81  53  87 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   64  77  51  82 /  70  10   0   0
BYV   66  78  54  82 /  70  10   0   0
MKO   66  79  57  86 /  70  10   0   0
MIO   64  80  54  84 /  60  10   0  10
F10   66  80  57  86 /  60  10   0   0
HHW   71  81  61  87 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053-067>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TONIGHT WITH DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH A FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Late afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and north of Interstate 44 through early evening,
    then along and south of Interstate 44 tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early evening.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Latest surface mesoanalysis shows boundary across far northeast
Oklahoma. OK mesonet observations and radar data suggest
convective towers are developing along a line from just north of
Vinita southwest toward central Osage County - near Pawhuska. We
are monitoring this area for first development this afternoon.

Elevated showers and storms are approaching from central Oklahoma
with a few lightning strikes noted. The cap has held strong to
this point but once the cap is breached, explosive storm
development is likely given extreme instability in place. All
modes of severe will be likely, including very large hail,
damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

Eventually, storms will increase in coverage and likely
transition toward a damaging wind threat by mid to late evening as
they develop southeastward. Additionally, an axis of heavy
rainfall is likely from northwest Arkansas through eastern
Oklahoma. Recent heavy rainfall may allow for rapid onset flash
flooding in a few locations.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Regional Spotter Network has been activated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY through FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storms will begin to shift southeast of the region Sunday morning
with dry conditions on Monday and Tuesday. Low thunderstorm
chances return mid to late week, with limited additional severe
weather potential.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
A Tornado Watch is in effect through midnight for all of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Initiation of storms is expected
within the next hour or so. The holiday weekend will provide
numerous outdoor exposures which will further increase the
potential for a rapid safety response. Outdoor activities may need
to be cancelled this evening, especially if you are unable to
quickly move indoors to a substantial shelter.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

CORFIDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
723 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             1 S NOWATA              36.69N 95.64W
05/27/2017  E1.25 INCH       NOWATA             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
743 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

OKZ064-280130-
Creek OK-
743 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CREEK COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

At 742 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Stroud, moving
east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bristow...                        Depew...
Slick...                          Milfay...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 199.

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3584 9662 3595 9628 3564 9623 3564 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 258DEG 37KT 3572 9665

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
748 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     HAIL             2 NW CHELSEA            36.56N 95.46W
05/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       ROGERS             OK   STORM CHASER

            ON HIGHWAY 28, RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
751 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             3 W WHITE OAK           36.62N 95.32W
05/27/2017  E1.25 INCH       CRAIG              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
803 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             NOWATA                  36.70N 95.64W
05/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       NOWATA             OK   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
805 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     HAIL             2 N BIG CABIN           36.57N 95.22W
05/27/2017  E1.25 INCH       CRAIG              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS