Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
328 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A high impact flooding event continues across the region...with
several flash flood warnings in effect for a large part of
northeast OK and northwest AR. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms have resulted in widespread 2-5 inch rain amounts
with some local amounts over 6-7 inches. We've received numerous
reports of street flooding...closed bridges and high
water...especially across northwest AR. Mainstem river flooding
will be a major issue...with 23 forecast points currently in
flood (many moderate to major).

Currently...a stationary front was draped across northwest AR into
southeast OK to a surface wave near Durant. One area of heavy rain
continues along this boundary...with a secondary area of
showers/storms farther west along inverted surface trof. The
multiple rounds of precipitation have sufficiently squashed the
warm sector...although far southeast OK remains quite warm/moist
and unstable (dewpoints running in the lower/mid 70s). Will need
to monitor this area over the next few hours for potential severe
convection.

The secondary area of showers/storms will persist through the
rest of the afternoon/early evening...moving back over areas that
received significant rainfall. Expect flash flood/areal flood
warnings to continue well into the overnight hours.

Rainfall will taper off later this evening and overnight as the
deep upper cyclone lifts northeast into KS. Could see some
lingering wraparound showers into Sunday morning...otherwise
expect a cool and very breezy day.

The next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a fast moving upper trof drops southeast through the
Rockies. A developing surface boundary across the region will be
the main focus...with most precipitation mainly along and north of
the front. This would result in additional rainfall across areas
that have been hit hard over the past 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  58  42  72 /  80  30  10  10
FSM   59  66  44  74 /  90  20  10  10
MLC   51  61  45  74 /  80  10  10   0
BVO   48  54  40  70 /  80  40  10  10
FYV   54  59  42  67 /  90  30  10  10
BYV   59  64  42  66 / 100  40  10  10
MKO   51  58  42  72 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   52  58  42  66 /  80  50  20  10
F10   49  58  43  72 /  80  20  10   0
HHW   54  64  45  74 /  90  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
519 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...Life Threatening Flooding and Severe Weather Ongoing...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and east of a line from Bentonville Arkansas to
           McAlester Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Along and east of a line from Bentonville Arkansas to
           McAlester Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...All of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread thunderstorms continue this afternoon with strong to
severe storms ongoing generally east of a line from Bentonville
Arkansas to McAlester Oklahoma.  Damaging winds, large hail, and
a few tornadoes are likely along and east of this line.
The severe weather potential will continue through the evening
hours with a general decrease in storm intensity expected
later tonight.
The continued rounds of heavy rain has resulted in widespread
dangerous flash flooding.  Numerous roads are closed across
the region and high water rescues have been performed through
the afternoon.  Any additional rainfall this afternoon through
the overnight hours will worsen ongoing conditions and rapid
onset flash flooding should be expected.
Additionally, numerous larger river basins are in flood and
river levels will continue to rise.  This will also impact
numerous roadways.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY and Monday...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A brief dry period is expected late Sunday into Monday
with thunderstorm chances returning mid week.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
530 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N NATURAL DAM         35.74N 94.39W
04/29/2017                   CRAWFORD           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN, ONE BLOCKING HIGHWAY 59. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

AEJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
530 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ049-073-075-292300-
Pittsburg OK-Latimer OK-Pushmataha OK-
530 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA...
SOUTHWESTERN LATIMER AND SOUTHEASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles south of
Blanco, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Hartshorne...
Krebs...                          Alderson...
Higgins...                        Blanco...
Haileyville...                    Pittsburg...
Gowen...                          Dow...
Bache...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3445 9578 3451 9578 3451 9567 3459 9567
      3459 9588 3467 9588 3506 9567 3492 9533
      3441 9571
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 210DEG 44KT 3466 9575

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
04/29/2017                   SEQUOYAH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND SALLISAW. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NATURAL DAM             35.65N 94.39W
04/29/2017                   CRAWFORD           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN AND SOME BUILDING DAMAGE.

&&

AEJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
548 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-292315-
Carroll AR-Madison AR-Benton AR-Washington AR-
548 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BENTON...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 548 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Garfield,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Rogers...                         Eureka Springs...
Lowell...                         Elkins...
Tontitown...                      Bethel Heights...
Garfield...                       Gateway...
Beaver...                         Hindsville...
Hobbs State Park...               Clifty...
War Eagle...                      Grandview...
Johnson...                        Elm Springs...
Goshen...                         Avoca...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 68 and 82.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3601 9399 3618 9429 3650 9401 3650 9362
      3649 9355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 213DEG 41KT 3641 9395

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
549 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ067-068-070-292330-
Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-Wagoner OK-
549 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...WEST
CENTRAL CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

At 549 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles west of
Keefeton, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Tahlequah...
Wagoner...                        Fort Gibson...
Okay...                           Hulbert...
Oktaha...                         Tullahassee...
Sequoyah State Park...            Keefeton...
Summit...                         Lost City...

LAT...LON 3599 9496 3554 9531 3554 9535 3555 9535
      3555 9540 3557 9554 3607 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 206DEG 38KT 3560 9540