Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
328 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A high impact flooding event continues across the region...with
several flash flood warnings in effect for a large part of
northeast OK and northwest AR. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms have resulted in widespread 2-5 inch rain amounts
with some local amounts over 6-7 inches. We've received numerous
reports of street flooding...closed bridges and high
water...especially across northwest AR. Mainstem river flooding
will be a major issue...with 23 forecast points currently in
flood (many moderate to major).

Currently...a stationary front was draped across northwest AR into
southeast OK to a surface wave near Durant. One area of heavy rain
continues along this boundary...with a secondary area of
showers/storms farther west along inverted surface trof. The
multiple rounds of precipitation have sufficiently squashed the
warm sector...although far southeast OK remains quite warm/moist
and unstable (dewpoints running in the lower/mid 70s). Will need
to monitor this area over the next few hours for potential severe
convection.

The secondary area of showers/storms will persist through the
rest of the afternoon/early evening...moving back over areas that
received significant rainfall. Expect flash flood/areal flood
warnings to continue well into the overnight hours.

Rainfall will taper off later this evening and overnight as the
deep upper cyclone lifts northeast into KS. Could see some
lingering wraparound showers into Sunday morning...otherwise
expect a cool and very breezy day.

The next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a fast moving upper trof drops southeast through the
Rockies. A developing surface boundary across the region will be
the main focus...with most precipitation mainly along and north of
the front. This would result in additional rainfall across areas
that have been hit hard over the past 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  58  42  72 /  80  30  10  10
FSM   59  66  44  74 /  90  20  10  10
MLC   51  61  45  74 /  80  10  10   0
BVO   48  54  40  70 /  80  40  10  10
FYV   54  59  42  67 /  90  30  10  10
BYV   59  64  42  66 / 100  40  10  10
MKO   51  58  42  72 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   52  58  42  66 /  80  50  20  10
F10   49  58  43  72 /  80  20  10   0
HHW   54  64  45  74 /  90  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
519 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...Life Threatening Flooding and Severe Weather Ongoing...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and east of a line from Bentonville Arkansas to
           McAlester Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Along and east of a line from Bentonville Arkansas to
           McAlester Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...All of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread thunderstorms continue this afternoon with strong to
severe storms ongoing generally east of a line from Bentonville
Arkansas to McAlester Oklahoma.  Damaging winds, large hail, and
a few tornadoes are likely along and east of this line.
The severe weather potential will continue through the evening
hours with a general decrease in storm intensity expected
later tonight.
The continued rounds of heavy rain has resulted in widespread
dangerous flash flooding.  Numerous roads are closed across
the region and high water rescues have been performed through
the afternoon.  Any additional rainfall this afternoon through
the overnight hours will worsen ongoing conditions and rapid
onset flash flooding should be expected.
Additionally, numerous larger river basins are in flood and
river levels will continue to rise.  This will also impact
numerous roadways.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY and Monday...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A brief dry period is expected late Sunday into Monday
with thunderstorm chances returning mid week.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
516 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARZ010-292300-
Washington AR-
516 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

At 516 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast of
Lincoln, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Farmington...
Prairie Grove...                  Elkins...
Tontitown...                      West Fork...
Lincoln...                        Greenland...
Strickler...                      Johnson...
Black Oak...                      Walnut Grove...
Prairie Grove Battlefield State...
Sulphur City...
Woolsey...                        Hicks...
Savoy...                          Clyde...
Rhea...                           Canehill...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 48 and 68.

LAT...LON 3577 9434 3593 9448 3614 9437 3614 9434
      3621 9433 3599 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 227DEG 55KT 3589 9436

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ067-070-292245-
Muskogee OK-Wagoner OK-
520 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER AND
NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 520 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Taft, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Wagoner...
Fort Gibson...                    Okay...
Porter...                         Oktaha...
Taft...                           Boynton...
Tullahassee...                    Wainwright...
Summit...                         Redbird...
Jamesville...                     Choska...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3589 9526 3588 9525 3587 9523 3586 9523
      3583 9525 3582 9527 3581 9524 3555 9546
      3555 9558 3562 9571 3567 9572 3600 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 214DEG 33KT 3569 9555

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
530 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N NATURAL DAM         35.74N 94.39W
04/29/2017                   CRAWFORD           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN, ONE BLOCKING HIGHWAY 59. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

AEJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
530 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

OKZ049-073-075-292300-
Pittsburg OK-Latimer OK-Pushmataha OK-
530 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA...
SOUTHWESTERN LATIMER AND SOUTHEASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles south of
Blanco, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Hartshorne...
Krebs...                          Alderson...
Higgins...                        Blanco...
Haileyville...                    Pittsburg...
Gowen...                          Dow...
Bache...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3445 9578 3451 9578 3451 9567 3459 9567
      3459 9588 3467 9588 3506 9567 3492 9533
      3441 9571
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 210DEG 44KT 3466 9575

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
04/29/2017                   SEQUOYAH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND SALLISAW. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NATURAL DAM             35.65N 94.39W
04/29/2017                   CRAWFORD           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN AND SOME BUILDING DAMAGE.

&&

AEJ