Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 686
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2017, 3:11 PM CDT for 5 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 16 counties in Texas. It was in force for 94 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 10, 2017, 3:11 PM CDT (20:11 UTC)
- Expired
- May 10, 2017, 4:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 94 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 23 counties
Grant County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Morton County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1056 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 64 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 7 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 265 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
365
ACUS11 KWNS 102012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102011
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-102145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0686
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017
Areas affected...most of the TX and OK Panhandles into southwest KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 102011Z - 102145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated large hail risk will develop across parts of
the TX Panhandle. The severe risk is likely lower farther north
across the OK Panhandle into southwest KS but considerable
uncertainty remains.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows intensifying thunderstorms across
the southern portion of the TX Panhandle to near the greater
Amarillo vicinity. This developing activity is likely in response
to a destabilizing boundary layer, the reduction of convective
inhibition, and large-scale ascent spreading across northwest TX and
the TX Panhandle this afternoon in association with a mid-level
vorticity lobe through northwest TX.
Strong deep-layer shear strongly supportive of updraft organization
(supercells) and moderate buoyancy will favor large hail growth with
the stronger/sustained updrafts across the TX Panhandle this
afternoon into the early evening. Localized severe gusts are
possible in the vicinity of the storms. Weaker buoyancy is implied
farther north by both mid-afternoon objective analysis and forecast
soundings owing to the influence of the early-day MCS across
TX-OK-KS. Nevertheless, destabilization and the aforementioned lobe
of ascent may foster the development of isolated severe
thunderstorms capable primarily of a hail risk perhaps this evening.
..Smith/Guyer.. 05/10/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 34830011 34800196 36670209 37710155 37630083 36370010
34830011SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 7:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cloud, Jewell, Marshall, Mitchell, Osborne, Phillips and 4 more | 2 hr |
| May 9, 9:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Finney, Gove, Graham, Grant and 16 more | 58 min |
| May 10, 1:29 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Jewell and 12 more | 61 min |
| May 10, 6:04 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Comanche, Harper, Kingman | 116 min |
| May 10, 12:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bourbon, Franklin, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami and 1 more | 3 hr |
| May 10, 3:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley and 10 more | 113 min |
| May 10, 6:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford | 2 hr |
| May 9, 10:59 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beaver | 8 hr |
| May 10, 2:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton, Custer and 8 more | 61 min |
| May 10, 2:43 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Greer, Harmon and 5 more | 7 hr |
| May 10, 5:27 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beaver, Texas | 3 hr |
| May 10, 5:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Greer and 5 more | 2 hr |
| May 9, 8:41 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Bailey, Castro, Cochran, Deaf Smith, Ector and 10 more | 2 hr |
| May 9, 10:17 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro and 19 more | 28 min |
| May 10, 2:04 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Castro, Cochran and 21 more | 86 min |
| May 10, 2:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Menard, Schleicher, Sutton, Val Verde | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.