Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 682
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2017, 12:39 PM CDT for 7 counties in Kansas; 29 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 10, 2017, 12:39 PM CDT (17:39 UTC)
- Expired
- May 10, 2017, 3:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 36 counties
Bourbon County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Camden County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Polk County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 262 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -138 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1254 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 45 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 23 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 67 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
909
ACUS11 KWNS 101740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101739
MOZ000-KSZ000-102015-
Mesoscale Discussion 0682
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017
Areas affected...Portions of MO and eastern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101739Z - 102015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe-thunderstorm risk is developing across
portions of eastern KS and will spread into/across portions of MO
through the afternoon. Present indications are that Watch issuance
is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Ascent accompanying a long-lived MCV is impinging upon
the western extent of a broad area characterized by modest return
moisture and moderate diurnal destabilization. As a result, remnant
convection has recently exhibited some intensification across
eastern KS, with new development noted as well. This activity will
continue spreading northeastward/eastward during the next several
hours. With surface dewpoints in the middle 60s amid at least modest
insolation ahead of this activity, MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and
little inhibition will support widely scattered robust updrafts
aided by around 35-45 kt of effective shear. Isolated occurrences of
severe hail/wind will be possible. Local instances of cold-pool
amalgamation could maximize damaging-wind potential (albeit
modestly), especially as convection spreads into parts of central
MO, where low-level lapse-rate steepening has been most substantial.
However, with large-scale ascent being quite modest across the
region, reflected by a lack of convergence in the pre-convective
environment, convection should lack more substantial organization
thus minimizing severe coverage.
..Cohen/Guyer.. 05/10/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37699500 38489535 39269513 39689452 39859373 39699257
39289210 37759284 37439395 37699500SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 7:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cloud, Jewell, Marshall, Mitchell, Osborne, Phillips and 4 more | 2 hr |
| May 9, 9:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Finney, Gove, Graham, Grant and 16 more | 58 min |
| May 10, 1:29 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Jewell and 12 more | 61 min |
| May 10, 6:04 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Comanche, Harper, Kingman | 116 min |
| May 10, 3:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Grant, Haskell, Morton, Seward, Stevens | 94 min |
| May 10, 3:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley and 10 more | 113 min |
| May 10, 6:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford | 2 hr |
| May 10, 12:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Clark, Knox, Lewis, Putnam, Schuyler and 1 more | 2 hr |
| May 10, 12:59 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Clark, Knox, Lewis, Mercer, Putnam and 3 more | 7 hr |
| May 10, 3:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Knox, Lewis, Macon, Marion, Ralls and 2 more | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.