Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 680

May 10, 20174 counties in Kansas; 11 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2017, 6:04 AM CDT for 4 counties in Kansas; 11 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 116 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 10, 2017, 6:04 AM CDT (11:04 UTC)
Expired
May 10, 2017, 8:00 AM CDT
In force
116 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Barber County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Harper County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Grant County, OK, Harper County, OK, Major County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Collingsworth County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2017-05-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 616 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2017-05-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 8 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
616 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-91 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1750 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
20 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

440 
ACUS11 KWNS 101105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101104 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-101300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0680
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...western Oklahoma and
adjacent southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202...

Valid 101104Z - 101300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to spread northeast of the
Texas Panhandle, and across portions of western Oklahoma and
adjacent southern Kansas through mid morning, perhaps accompanied by
some lingering risk for severe hail and wind.  Any such threat seems
likely to remain fairly localized and marginal, with an additional
severe weather watch probably not needed.  But trends will continue
to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Perhaps aided by a lingering, but weakening, southerly
850 mb jet (30-40+ kt), lower/mid tropospheric warm advection may
maintain the ongoing cluster of thunderstorms another several hours.
 Activity appears generally focused on the northwestern edge of
warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed layer air, and is
expected to spread northeast of the eastern Texas Panhandle, and
across northwestern Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas, through
the 12-15Z time frame.

Although the long-lived discrete supercell near the leading edge of
the activity appears to be in the process of weakening, a period of
re-intensification of thunderstorms may not be entirely out of the
question this morning.  If this occurs it probably will remain
rather localized, and focused along a remnant outflow boundary from
now dissipated preceding convection, which extends northeastward
into roughly the I-135/70 vicinity of central Kansas.  But, the
environment may be at least marginally conducive of occasional
strong surface gusts and perhaps severe hail.

..Kerr.. 05/10/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   37109993 37889823 37079747 35889871 35209931 34570040
            35490045 36440055 37109993

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 9, 7:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCloud, Jewell, Marshall, Mitchell, Osborne, Phillips and 4 more2 hr
May 9, 9:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Finney, Gove, Graham, Grant and 16 more58 min
May 10, 1:29 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Jewell and 12 more61 min
May 10, 12:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBourbon, Franklin, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami and 1 more3 hr
May 10, 3:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGrant, Haskell, Morton, Seward, Stevens94 min
May 10, 3:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley and 10 more113 min
May 10, 6:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBourbon, Cherokee, Crawford2 hr
May 9, 10:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeaver8 hr
May 10, 2:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton, Custer and 8 more61 min
May 10, 2:43 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCaddo, Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Greer, Harmon and 5 more7 hr
May 10, 5:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeaver, Texas3 hr
May 10, 5:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Greer and 5 more2 hr
May 9, 8:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Bailey, Castro, Cochran, Deaf Smith, Ector and 10 more2 hr
May 9, 10:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro and 19 more28 min
May 10, 2:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Castro, Cochran and 21 more86 min
May 10, 2:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMenard, Schleicher, Sutton, Val Verde3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.