Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1143 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

A weak shortwave moving across the area this afternoon was trying
to aid in developing some showers and storms across along I-49.
This activity may increase in coverage and intensity as we go
through the afternoon hours as noted by the HRRR. The short term
models have struggled with this development through the morning
hours however but will keep monitoring this through the afternoon.
MLCAPE values of around 2000 j/kg and 25kts 0-6km shear could
allow for some stronger storms to develop in the near term along
the MO/AR border in sw MO.

Short and medium range models do continue to show a complex of
storms developing and moving across the Ozarks late this evening
into overnight. A few models like the GFS and ECMWF have rainfall
developing as early as 21z along the I-49 corridor with the
rainfall spreading east overnight. Other models hold all the rain
off until after midnight. Overall, thinking that mid evening will
be the best timing for rain and storms to develop and move east
with initiation along I-49 seeming the best potential location.

Current forecasts from both SPC and WPC indicate slight risks for
severe storms and flooding rain respectively across southeastern
Kansas and western into central Missouri respectively.

The flooding potential will be contingent on training storm
development. If this occurs some locations could see 2 to 3 inches
of rainfall.

Current mesoscale date across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
has nearly 3000j/kg of cape across the area with dewpoints in the
low to middle 70's with several shortwaves expected to move
across the area this evening and overnight. there will be the
potential for some strong to severe storm development. Primary
concerns will be damaging winds but hail to quarters in size will
also be possible.

Some showers and storms are expected to linger across the
southwestern half of the Ozarks through much of the day though
coverage and duration should be limited. Despite the cloud cover
expected for tomorrow, temperatures should climb into the middle
to upper 80s similar to todays forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

The unsettled and active patter will continue to bring shower and
thunderstorm chances to the Ozarks Saturday night through the
middle of next week. The upper level flow pattern will transition
from southwesterly flow this weekend to northwesterly flow aloft
for the middle of the week with upper level ridging moving over
the area by the end of the week.

In general, there is potential for showers and thunderstorms
nearly each day through Wednesday. By next weekend, there is the
potential for additional rainfall but this is quite a was out in
the extended forecast.

Another note on next week's forecast will be the near normal
temperatures expected to start next week with highs around 90 and
heat index values around the 100 degree make Monday and Tuesday.
The pattern changes previously discussed will change by the end of
the week and temperatures by Wednesday through the end of next
week will again be 5 to 10 degrees below normal for August with
highs in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Shortwave pushing through the area with strong/severe storm
affecting areas around the Lake of the Ozarks. Mainly clear across
the remainder of the CWA with VFR conditions. May have some light
MVFR fog towards sunrise, but should have mostly VFR conditions
through the forecast period at the three terminal points.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
946 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200300-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
946 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible over central
  Missouri late this evening into the early portion of the
  overnight hours. Large hail up to golf ball size and damaging
  thunderstorm winds in excess of 60 mph will be possible with the
  stronger storms. Heavy rain will accompany the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

  Periodic scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
  from Sunday through middle of next week.

  Heat index values will warm into the middle and upper 90s by
  later this weekend and early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
936 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             CAMDENTON               38.01N 92.74W
08/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
945 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     HAIL             CAMDENTON               38.01N 92.74W
08/18/2017  E1.25 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1002 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     HAIL             1 ENE LINN CREEK        38.04N 92.70W
08/18/2017  E1.50 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   PUBLIC

            PING PONG HAIL PICTURE ON SOCIAL MEDIA NEAR
            LINN CREEK.

&&

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1028 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

MOZ055-056-190430-
Benton MO-Morgan MO-
1028 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BENTON AND MORGAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1028 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Sedalia, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Versailles...                     Cole Camp...
Stover...                         Barnett...
Syracuse...                       Ionia...
Mora...                           Florence...
Brandon...                        Crockerville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3860 9284 3843 9263 3835 9264
      3835 9269 3830 9269 3838 9307 3848 9347
      3851 9345 3851 9330 3854 9329 3853 9307
      3869 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 292DEG 32KT 3860 9322

Burchfield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1121 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

MOZ056-057-069-190515-
Camden MO-Miller MO-Morgan MO-
1121 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MILLER...CENTRAL CAMDEN AND
SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1120 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a severe thunderstorm near
Versailles, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Ping pong size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake of The Ozarks...             Lake of The Ozarks State Park...
Eldon...                          Osage Beach...
Village of Four Seasons...        Lake Ozark...
Laurie...                         Iberia...
Sunrise Beach...                  St. Elizabeth...
Saint Elizabeth...                Linn Creek...
Tuscumbia...                      Barnett...
Eugene...                         Gravois Mills...
Olean...                          Bagnell...
Brumley...                        Etterville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Monitor the weather situation closely. Listen for possible warnings
and be prepared to take appropriate action should severe weather
threaten.

If on or near Lake of the Ozarks, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 9262 3843 9241 3834 9240 3834 9229
      3832 9225 3834 9222 3833 9219 3820 9220
      3816 9218 3802 9218 3802 9240 3792 9251
      3827 9306 3846 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 310DEG 22KT 3835 9278

Griffin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1219 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017

MOZ057-058-069>071-190615-
Maries MO-Camden MO-Phelps MO-Miller MO-Pulaski MO-
1219 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MARIES...
SOUTHEASTERN MILLER...PULASKI...WEST CENTRAL PHELPS AND EAST CENTRAL
CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1219 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Iberia to near Richland. Movement was
southeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rolla...                          Fort Leonard Wood...
Waynesville...                    St. Robert...
Richland...                       Dixon...
Crocker...                        Iberia...
Doolittle...                      Newburg...
Devil's Elbow...                  Swedeborg...
Ozark Springs...                  Jerome...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 153 and 169, and
between mile markers 171 and 185.

LAT...LON 3790 9166 3766 9211 3802 9263 3817 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 312DEG 36KT 3811 9220 3794 9245

Foster