Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Springfield, MO

786 
WGUS73 KSGF 292136
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
436 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

MOC213-300200-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-170430T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Taney MO-
436 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE CITY OF BRANSON...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TANEY COUNTY...

At 432 PM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding in the
warned area. Six inches of rain has fallen. Significant flash
flooding is already occurring. Additional heavy rainfall will
continue to move into the area over the next hour or two. This
additional heavy rain will likely aggravate ongoing flash
flooding. 

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for the city of Branson. This is
a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

&&

LAT...LON 3668 9314 3659 9314 3657 9322 3658 9331
      3667 9331 3670 9326 3670 9319

$$

Frye

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
243 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Serious flash flooding event ongoing across the parts of the area
early this afternoon with 3 flash flood emergencies ongoing and
flash flood warnings for a good portion of the southeast 2/3 of
the CWA.

Upper low was still over the 4 corners region with strong
diffluent flow across the southern and central plains. Strong
southerly low level jet of 40 to 50 kts continues to advect
copious amounts of moisture up and over a nearly stationary
boundary which was draped across southern Missouri, but was
showing some lifting to the north over south central Missouri,
where instability was rapidly increasing. Dewpoints south of the
front were in the low 70s. Shear remains favorable when combined
with the instability south of the front for all modes of severe
storms this afternoon and evening. Widespread PW values of 1.6 to
1.7 in. were located across the forecast area, so these
thunderstorms were very efficient rain producers.

Main focus will be with continued significant flooding as several
more waves of thunderstorms are expected through tonight and the
potential for severe storms south of the front, with all modes of
severe storms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Conditions have destabilized rather quickly south of the frontal
boundary over south central MO which has remained rain free for
much of the morning and early afternoon. Surface based CAPES have
surged into the 2500-3000 j/kg range as dewpoints have increased
from the low 60s to low 70s on the south side of the front. Have
around 30-40 kts of 0-6km shear and 35 to 40 kts of 0-1km low
level shear. These would indicate the potential of supercells this
afternoon and evening with all modes of severe storms, including
the potential of isolated tornadoes.

Short term convective models continue to show several waves of
thunderstorms moving through the area for the remainder of the
afternoon through Sunday morning which will add to the significant
flooding already going on. All of our forecast river points are in
flood forecast with most into moderate or major flood categories
and a few might go into record breaking territory. We are still
going with an additional 2 to near 4 inches of widespread rainfall
across the area before rain ends during the day Sunday.

The upper low should shift from the 4 corners region into central
KS by mid morning Sunday with the dry slot beginning to edge into
the western CWA. This should transition eastward during the day
with the bulk of the precipitation shifting east of the area by
midday. Could still have residual showers/light rain through the
afternoon Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

With the large amplified ridge in place over the eastern U.S, the
upper low will move very slowly to the northeast through Monday.
Most of the wrap around moisture and associated precipitation
should remain north of the forecast area.

Another jetstreak start diving southeast into the northern Rockies
on Monday night which will begin to develop a trough and
eventually another closed upper low which will bring additional
precipitation to the area from Tuesday night into Thursday. Models
do have some differences, but all bring additional precipitation
and we are going another inch to inch and a half with this system.
Most of the instability will remain south of the area so we will
go with mainly isolated thunder in the southern part of the CWA
and showers across the north. Due to the significant ongoing
flooding though, additional rainfall will add to the flooding
issues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Several waves of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain will
continue to push across the area through the forecast period.
North of the warm front (jln/sgf) will likely remain in mvfr/ifr
through much of the forecast period. BBG could break out a bit in
between rounds of thunderstorms, but will likely be in mostly
MVFR/IFR conditions. Final round of heavier convection should push
through the TAF sites late in the overnight period into Sunday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
123 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301830-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
123 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Tornado risk.
  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue to impact
the outlook area today through tonight. Torrential rainfall will
continue to train from southwest to northeast across the area
which will cause significant flooding to occur.

There is an elevated risk for strong to severe storms generally
along southeast of Interstate 44. The strongest storms will be
capable of producing large hail to the size of golf balls, wind
gusts in excess of 60 mph and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Flash flooding will be likely, especially south of a Pittsburg
Kansas to Lake of the Ozarks line as additional waves of
thunderstorms with heavy rain will impact the area through
tonight. Additional rainfall amounts of two to four inches of
rainfall with embedded higher amounts will be possible. This will
lead to extensive flash flooding and moderate to major flooding on
most of the rivers and streams in the area. Some record crest
levels are even expected.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire outlook area
through Sunday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Residual flooding will continue Sunday through at least the first
half of the workweek next week.

There will be an additional risk for showers and a few
thunderstorms by mid week next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening across
south central Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
214 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

MOZ096-105-292000-
Douglas MO-Ozark MO-
214 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OZARK AND CENTRAL DOUGLAS
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 214 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Price Place, or 20 miles north of Bull Shoals,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bull Shoals Lake...               Theodosia...
Wasola...                         Sundown...
Brixey...                         Noble...
Willhoit...                       Brushyknob...
Gentryville...                    Thornfield...
Vanzant...                        Squires...
Rockbridge...                     Long Run...
Isabella...                       Drury...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 9277 3675 9277 3706 9250 3706 9238
      3686 9214 3650 9272
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 219DEG 39KT 3666 9270

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
227 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CASSVILLE               36.68N 93.87W
04/29/2017                   BARRY              MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            NUMEROUS COUNTY AND STATE ROADS CLOSED
            THROUGHOUT BARRY COUNTY. ALSO, WATER RESCUES
            HAVE OCCURRED TODAY.

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE REPUBLIC          37.11N 93.46W
04/29/2017                   GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            JUST EAST OF LYNN AND MILLER WATER OVER
            ROADWAY. ON US60 ACROSS WALMART ROAD HAS
            RUNNING WATER OVER IT ON NE BOUND SIDE.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CASSVILLE               36.68N 93.87W
04/29/2017                   BARRY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BUDGET INN ON HIGHWAY 112 BEING EVACUATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BRANSON                 36.65N 93.22W
04/29/2017                   TANEY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING REPORTED ON WESTWOOD DRIVE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     HAIL             3 NW AVA                36.98N 92.71W
04/29/2017  M1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BURCHFIELD