Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
705 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue today
and tonight as a deep upper level low lifts northeast from the
southern Rockies and interacts with a stalled front across the
region. Precipitable water values in excess of 1.50 and
tremendous moisture influx combined with strong synoptic scale
lift will lead to torrential rainfall. Deep convection will result
in intense rainfall rates.

Activity will be focused north of a surface front and along the
925 MB frontal boundary which will lay across southern Missouri
for much of the event. This front will become more southwest to
northeast oriented with time as the upper flow amplifies ahead of
the approaching storm system.

The end result will be a significant flood event particularly
across far southern Missouri. Total storm rain amounts will
generally range from 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts up to 8
inches. The highest amounts will generally fall along and south of
Interstate 44 with lower amounts farther north across central
Missouri.

Ample instability will be in place or develop across far southern
Missouri as the warm front lifts north a bit. This along with
favorable shear environment will support strong to severe
convection including supercells. Large hail will be the primary
risk early today but the risk for damaging winds and perhaps a few
tornadoes will develop today across south central Missouri. The
severe risk will ultimately depend on the northward extent of the
warm front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

The upper low will make its way into the region Sunday allowing
rain to taper off but not entirely end. Cool temperatures can also
be expected. Improving weather will return Monday as the upper low
lifts off to the northeast.

Next system will arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing
another round of rainfall. Overall a cooler pattern is setting up
for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor radar at all times.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for most of the
forecast period. These storms will lead to MVFR and IFR flight
conditions at times.

This storm system will finally exit the region late Sunday.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
224 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-300730-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
224 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Tornado risk.
  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain will impact the
outlook area today through this evening. The strongest storms and
heaviest rainfall will be focused along and south of the Interstate
44 corridor.

There is an elevated risk for strong to severe storms generally
along southeast of Interstate 44. The strongest storms will be
capable of producing large hail to the size of golf balls, wind
gusts in excess of 60 mph and perhaps an isolated tornado.

The risk for flash flooding will increase through the day as additional
rounds of heavy rain occur. Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 and
6 inches will common by Sunday with localized areas receiving up
to 8 inches. The highest rain totals will occur along and
southeast of Interstate 44. Along with flooding of streams, and
low water crossings, many area rivers are expected to reach
moderate flood stage, with several locations possibly reaching
major flood stage.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire outlook area
through Sunday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Residual flooding will continue Sunday through at least the first
half of the workweek next week.

There will be an additional risk for showers and a few thunderstorms
by mid week next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed today across south central
 Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Foster

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
742 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 AM     FLASH FLOOD      9 SSE POWELL            36.50N 94.11W
04/29/2017                   MCDONALD           MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ROUTE KK IN BOTH
            DIRECTIONS.

&&

JLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
745 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 NNW COMPETITION       37.56N 92.48W
04/29/2017                   LACLEDE            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ROUTE B
            NORTHBOUND.

&&

JLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
748 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E BENDAVIS            37.30N 92.17W
04/29/2017                   TEXAS              MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ROUTE M IN BOTH
            DIRECTIONS.

&&

JLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
751 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W BUCYRUS             37.34N 92.04W
04/29/2017                   TEXAS              MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ROUTE ZZ IN BOTH
            DIRECTIONS.

&&

JLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
752 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUSTON                 37.33N 91.95W
04/29/2017                   TEXAS              MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ROUTE F IN BOTH
            DIRECTIONS.

&&

JLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
813 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ESE GOODMAN           36.72N 94.32W
04/29/2017                   MCDONALD           MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ROUTE CC IN BOTH
            DIRECTIONS.

&&

JLR