Severe Thunderstorm Warning 920, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
651 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms will move east beyond central, southwest, and north
central Oklahoma before 11 PM. Until then very large hail and
strong wind gusts are likely in some areas. Ceilings will lift
quickly into VFR category when the cold front passes shortly after
thunderstorms. Gusty north winds will subside by mid-day Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front continues to progress southward this afternoon
across northwestern OK, with a few elevated showers quickly
lifting northeast ahead of it. Stratus is finally starting to mix
out over portions of western and central OK so expect
destabilization through late this afternoon. Initial storm
development should occur sometime around 5 PM along the front in
western and northwestern OK. A few discrete cells will be possible
over southwestern OK and western north TX, with the greatest
potential for a tornado or two near the Red River early this
evening. Otherwise, expect rapid linear merge into a squall line
extending from northern OK into southern and southwestern OK
around 9-10 PM. Wind damage will become a concern during that time
frame. The storms should exit our FA around 1-2 AM.

Tomorrow will be quiet with much cooler and drier air moving into
the Southern Plains. Skies will also clear. A brief warmup is
expected Monday, but another cold front will arrive Tue.
Precipitation is not expected with this front. Again, temperatures
will climb back to a few degrees above normal for Wed and Thu
before a strong cold front arrives overnight Thursday thru Fri.
Some snow will even be possible over northwestern OK Sat AM as a
deep trough sweeps across the central and northern CONUS. Highs on
Friday and Sat are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees below average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  50  68  48 /  50 100   0   0
Hobart OK         79  46  70  47 /  70  90   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  83  50  71  48 /  30  90   0   0
Gage OK           76  40  71  46 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     77  47  69  46 /  80 100   0   0
Durant OK         80  56  71  48 /  20 100  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

09/09/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
600 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
600 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
north central, central, and southern Oklahoma, and adjacent parts of
northern Texas. A slight and marginal risk cover much of the rest of
the area.

Location...
The enhanced risk is near and southeast of a line from
Enid to Clinton, Altus, and Seymour Texas. This includes places like
Ponca City, Enid, Lawton, Oklahoma City metro, Ada, Ardmore, and
Wichita Falls.

Impacts...
Damaging wind gusts to around 80 mph and large hail up to the size
of tennis balls are the primary hazards. There is a low potential
for tornadoes across parts of central and southern Oklahoma, and
adjacent parts of northern Texas.

Timing...
Severe thunderstorms will continue until 2 am.
The most likely time for tornadoes is until 9 PM.

Discussion...
Thunderstorms continue forming along a cold front moving southeast
across Oklahoma. Large hail is the main hazard until mid-evening
after which damaging winds will become the main hazard. Isolated
wind gusts up to 80 mph are possible.

The tornado potential, particularly in southwest Oklahoma, will
decrease late this evening.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations late this
afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms may linger in parts of southeast Oklahoma
Sunday morning before exiting the area.

.Cold/Frost...
Patchy frost and near freezing temperatures may be possible across
portions of Oklahoma late next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
902 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             3 W MOORE               35.35N 97.55W
10/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       CLEVELAND          OK   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
904 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

OKZ020-026-220245-
Payne OK-Lincoln OK-
904 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR eastern Payne and Lincoln
Counties Until 945 PM CDT...

AT 902 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sparks, moving
northeast at 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Cushing, Chandler, Perkins, Stroud, Prague, Yale, Meeker, Davenport,
Wellston, Carney, Tryon, Ripley, Agra, Sparks, Warwick, Kendrick,
Fallis, Quay, Avery and Ingalls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 9682 3616 9662 3547 9663 3546 9714
      3594 9714 3622 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 245DEG 49KT 3565 9686

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
905 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     HAIL             2 SSE TINKER AIR FORCE  35.39N 97.37W
10/21/2017  E0.88 INCH       OKLAHOMA           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     HAIL             DUNCAN                  34.50N 97.96W
10/21/2017  E0.75 INCH       STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
911 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 PM     HAIL             DUNCAN                  34.50N 97.96W
10/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
915 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STILLWATER              36.12N 97.06W
10/21/2017                   PAYNE              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF STREET FLOODING WITH STALLED
            VEHICLES.

&&

MAD