Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
301 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Convective complex dropping ese across KY and now into nw TN. This
activity is currently reaching into our far western counties at
this time. Frontal boundary is located w-e across central
portions the mid state, just south of I-40. As the series of
impulses upstream moves closer to the boundary location, storms
will become stronger and will amplify the hail threat. Mid level
lapse rates are around 8C to 8.5 C across much of the area, with
elevated instability extending north of the boundary. Shear levels
increase, especially south of the boundary so will taylor zones
to reflect the lg hail threat north, and the lg hail and scattered
wind threat south. A severe tstm watch was issued in the last 15
min and it includes all but the northern tier of our county
warning area. The system looks to be rather progressive although
there are some weaker impulses behind it which could bring some
additional showers late tonight. Otw, the timeframe for the severe
threat looks like now through around 7 pm. Hrrr concurs with that
timeframe.

Moving on, aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to move
southward and will be well into the deep south by sunrise. A cooler
and drier day is expected for Wednesday. After lows of near 40,
highs will top out in the 55 to 60 degree range.

A return flow will begin to set up on Thursday and Friday, but upper
ridging will keep conditions dry. A warmup, however, will commence
and we will be back up into the 60s on Thursday.

In the ext fcst, The weather pattern will become more active with a
series of lows moving eastward through the period. The best chances
for rain will be Sat nt and Monday. As for any tstm or severe
potential, 850 mb speeds increase Sat nt with instabilities being
more favorable on Mon. Cannot rule out strong to severe tstms
potential for either time as the mid level jet is in place.

For the ext temps, southerly moist flow to prevail so we will see
temps that are a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal. This equates to
lows in the 50s, and highs in the 70s.

Will go ahead and issue the zones early. This will reflect the
current svr tstm watch. I will also include a pre evening period due
to the progressiveness of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mostly VFR, but with a boundary sitting across Middle TN, a very
small cloud deck has developed between KCKV and KBNA and has given
KBNA some BKN MVFR cigs. I think there is a good chance that this
deck works its way up to KCKV, so I've prevailed it in the next
couple of hours.

The bigger story will be the line of TS that will push through and
likely affect all 3 terminal later this afternoon and evening.
Have tried to time out the activity with the latest hi-res
guidance, but we can expect IFR cigs/vis with the line.

Conditions will improve rather quickly this evening but as the
front sags into Middle TN, northerly wind gusts will pick up
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      42  57  42  66  50 /  60  10   0   0  10
Clarksville    38  55  38  64  50 /  50  10  10  10  10
Crossville     41  54  38  58  45 /  60  10  10   0  10
Columbia       45  58  44  65  50 /  70  10  10   0  10
Lawrenceburg   45  59  44  65  50 /  70  10  10   0  10
Waverly        42  56  42  65  52 /  60  10  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
505 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
505 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
across southern Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening,
generally along and south of the I-40 corridor.

A cold front will shift south to near I-40 by midday, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along and
south of the front this afternoon and continue into the evening.
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible in the strongest
storms, along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday as another cold
front shifts from west to east across Middle Tennessee.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need this afternoon into this evening.

Shamburger

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
438 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 W NASHVILLE           36.17N  86.91W
03/21/2017                   DAVIDSON           TN   TWITTER

            TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES IN BELLEVUE... POWERLINES ON
            THE GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700267

ROSE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
439 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

TNZ095-212215-
Giles TN-
439 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GILES COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

At 439 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Pulaski, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pulaski, Ardmore, Elkton, Minor Hill, Goodspring and Prospect.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3500 8722 3506 8722 3510 8721 3512 8722
      3512 8720 3514 8721 3515 8720 3516 8720
      3517 8722 3524 8721 3511 8683 3499 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 293DEG 41KT 3511 8714

Barnwell

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
441 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             WAYNESBORO              35.32N  87.76W
03/21/2017  E1.75 INCH       WAYNE              TN   FACEBOOK

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700268

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
455 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             12 NW SHELBYVILLE       35.61N  86.60W
03/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       BEDFORD            TN   TWITTER

            UNIONVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700269

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
502 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MURFREESBORO            35.85N  86.39W
03/21/2017                   RUTHERFORD         TN   TWITTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN EAST MURFREESBORO

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700270

ROSE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
507 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

TNZ075-077-079-212245-
Coffee TN-Bedford TN-Grundy TN-
507 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COFFEE...SOUTHEASTERN
BEDFORD AND GRUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 507 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Manchester, moving east at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Manchester, Tullahoma, Gruetli-Laager, Tracy City, Monteagle,
Altamont, Coalmont, Palmer, Wartrace, Beersheba Springs, Normandy,
Raus, Hillsboro, Pelham, Arnold AFB and Fiery Gizzard S.p..

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3523 8586 3529 8592 3534 8603 3536 8616
      3534 8620 3534 8626 3538 8625 3539 8628
      3541 8625 3541 8626 3536 8635 3553 8633
      3548 8554 3543 8554 3538 8549 3532 8556
      3529 8571 3524 8569 3522 8574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 280DEG 39KT 3543 8615

Barnwell