Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Nashville, TN

513 
WUUS54 KOHX 212151 CCA
SVROHX
TNC149-189-212215-
/O.COR.KOHX.SV.W.0071.170321T2142Z-170321T2215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
451 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Rutherford County in Middle Tennessee...
  South central Wilson County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 515 PM CDT

* At 450 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from Smyrna to 6 miles southwest of Murfreesboro, moving
  east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to 
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Nolensville, Watertown,
  Walterhill, Cedars Of Lebanon State Park, Lascassas and Milton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay
away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 8619 3579 8665 3580 8665 3580 8661
      3581 8661 3581 8662 3582 8661 3583 8663
      3584 8660 3587 8662 3590 8662 3591 8663
      3598 8661 3601 8661 3612 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 269DEG 31KT 3600 8658 3580 8658 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

13

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
301 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Convective complex dropping ese across KY and now into nw TN. This
activity is currently reaching into our far western counties at
this time. Frontal boundary is located w-e across central
portions the mid state, just south of I-40. As the series of
impulses upstream moves closer to the boundary location, storms
will become stronger and will amplify the hail threat. Mid level
lapse rates are around 8C to 8.5 C across much of the area, with
elevated instability extending north of the boundary. Shear levels
increase, especially south of the boundary so will taylor zones
to reflect the lg hail threat north, and the lg hail and scattered
wind threat south. A severe tstm watch was issued in the last 15
min and it includes all but the northern tier of our county
warning area. The system looks to be rather progressive although
there are some weaker impulses behind it which could bring some
additional showers late tonight. Otw, the timeframe for the severe
threat looks like now through around 7 pm. Hrrr concurs with that
timeframe.

Moving on, aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to move
southward and will be well into the deep south by sunrise. A cooler
and drier day is expected for Wednesday. After lows of near 40,
highs will top out in the 55 to 60 degree range.

A return flow will begin to set up on Thursday and Friday, but upper
ridging will keep conditions dry. A warmup, however, will commence
and we will be back up into the 60s on Thursday.

In the ext fcst, The weather pattern will become more active with a
series of lows moving eastward through the period. The best chances
for rain will be Sat nt and Monday. As for any tstm or severe
potential, 850 mb speeds increase Sat nt with instabilities being
more favorable on Mon. Cannot rule out strong to severe tstms
potential for either time as the mid level jet is in place.

For the ext temps, southerly moist flow to prevail so we will see
temps that are a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal. This equates to
lows in the 50s, and highs in the 70s.

Will go ahead and issue the zones early. This will reflect the
current svr tstm watch. I will also include a pre evening period due
to the progressiveness of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mostly VFR, but with a boundary sitting across Middle TN, a very
small cloud deck has developed between KCKV and KBNA and has given
KBNA some BKN MVFR cigs. I think there is a good chance that this
deck works its way up to KCKV, so I've prevailed it in the next
couple of hours.

The bigger story will be the line of TS that will push through and
likely affect all 3 terminal later this afternoon and evening.
Have tried to time out the activity with the latest hi-res
guidance, but we can expect IFR cigs/vis with the line.

Conditions will improve rather quickly this evening but as the
front sags into Middle TN, northerly wind gusts will pick up
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      42  57  42  66  50 /  60  10   0   0  10
Clarksville    38  55  38  64  50 /  50  10  10  10  10
Crossville     41  54  38  58  45 /  60  10  10   0  10
Columbia       45  58  44  65  50 /  70  10  10   0  10
Lawrenceburg   45  59  44  65  50 /  70  10  10   0  10
Waverly        42  56  42  65  52 /  60  10  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
505 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
505 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
across southern Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening,
generally along and south of the I-40 corridor.

A cold front will shift south to near I-40 by midday, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along and
south of the front this afternoon and continue into the evening.
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible in the strongest
storms, along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday as another cold
front shifts from west to east across Middle Tennessee.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need this afternoon into this evening.

Shamburger

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
416 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAWRENCEBURG            35.25N  87.34W
03/21/2017                   LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            18 DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON MT. ARIAT RD. ON NORTH SIDE OF
            LAWRENCEBURG

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700264

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
419 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             3 W LAWRENCEBURG        35.25N  87.39W
03/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF QUARTER-SIZE HAIL FROM 3 MILES WEST
            OF LAWRENCEBURG TO NORTH OF ETHRIDGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700265

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
423 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HAIL             3 W LEWISBURG           35.45N  86.84W
03/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700266

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
438 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 W NASHVILLE           36.17N  86.91W
03/21/2017                   DAVIDSON           TN   TWITTER

            TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES IN BELLEVUE... POWERLINES ON
            THE GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700267

ROSE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
439 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

TNZ095-212215-
Giles TN-
439 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GILES COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

At 439 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Pulaski, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pulaski, Ardmore, Elkton, Minor Hill, Goodspring and Prospect.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3500 8722 3506 8722 3510 8721 3512 8722
      3512 8720 3514 8721 3515 8720 3516 8720
      3517 8722 3524 8721 3511 8683 3499 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 293DEG 41KT 3511 8714

Barnwell

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
441 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             WAYNESBORO              35.32N  87.76W
03/21/2017  E1.75 INCH       WAYNE              TN   FACEBOOK

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700268

ROSE