Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Nashville, TN

358 
WWUS54 KOHX 212045
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
345 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

TNC055-119-212055-
/O.CAN.KOHX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-170321T2115Z/
Maury TN-Giles TN-
345 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAURY AND
NORTHEASTERN GILES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3538 8692 3552 8686 3549 8648 3536 8651
      3535 8653 3536 8654 3537 8659 3536 8660
      3533 8660 3532 8664 3531 8665 3532 8666
      3528 8672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 284DEG 26KT 3540 8675 

$$

TNC003-117-212115-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-170321T2115Z/
Marshall TN-Bedford TN-
345 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES...

At 345 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lewisburg,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Lewisburg, Cornersville, Belfast and Farmington. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8692 3552 8686 3549 8648 3536 8651
      3535 8653 3536 8654 3537 8659 3536 8660
      3533 8660 3532 8664 3531 8665 3532 8666
      3528 8672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 284DEG 26KT 3540 8675 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Barnwell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
301 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Convective complex dropping ese across KY and now into nw TN. This
activity is currently reaching into our far western counties at
this time. Frontal boundary is located w-e across central
portions the mid state, just south of I-40. As the series of
impulses upstream moves closer to the boundary location, storms
will become stronger and will amplify the hail threat. Mid level
lapse rates are around 8C to 8.5 C across much of the area, with
elevated instability extending north of the boundary. Shear levels
increase, especially south of the boundary so will taylor zones
to reflect the lg hail threat north, and the lg hail and scattered
wind threat south. A severe tstm watch was issued in the last 15
min and it includes all but the northern tier of our county
warning area. The system looks to be rather progressive although
there are some weaker impulses behind it which could bring some
additional showers late tonight. Otw, the timeframe for the severe
threat looks like now through around 7 pm. Hrrr concurs with that
timeframe.

Moving on, aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to move
southward and will be well into the deep south by sunrise. A cooler
and drier day is expected for Wednesday. After lows of near 40,
highs will top out in the 55 to 60 degree range.

A return flow will begin to set up on Thursday and Friday, but upper
ridging will keep conditions dry. A warmup, however, will commence
and we will be back up into the 60s on Thursday.

In the ext fcst, The weather pattern will become more active with a
series of lows moving eastward through the period. The best chances
for rain will be Sat nt and Monday. As for any tstm or severe
potential, 850 mb speeds increase Sat nt with instabilities being
more favorable on Mon. Cannot rule out strong to severe tstms
potential for either time as the mid level jet is in place.

For the ext temps, southerly moist flow to prevail so we will see
temps that are a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal. This equates to
lows in the 50s, and highs in the 70s.

Will go ahead and issue the zones early. This will reflect the
current svr tstm watch. I will also include a pre evening period due
to the progressiveness of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mostly VFR, but with a boundary sitting across Middle TN, a very
small cloud deck has developed between KCKV and KBNA and has given
KBNA some BKN MVFR cigs. I think there is a good chance that this
deck works its way up to KCKV, so I've prevailed it in the next
couple of hours.

The bigger story will be the line of TS that will push through and
likely affect all 3 terminal later this afternoon and evening.
Have tried to time out the activity with the latest hi-res
guidance, but we can expect IFR cigs/vis with the line.

Conditions will improve rather quickly this evening but as the
front sags into Middle TN, northerly wind gusts will pick up
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      42  57  42  66  50 /  60  10   0   0  10
Clarksville    38  55  38  64  50 /  50  10  10  10  10
Crossville     41  54  38  58  45 /  60  10  10   0  10
Columbia       45  58  44  65  50 /  70  10  10   0  10
Lawrenceburg   45  59  44  65  50 /  70  10  10   0  10
Waverly        42  56  42  65  52 /  60  10  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
505 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
505 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
across southern Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening,
generally along and south of the I-40 corridor.

A cold front will shift south to near I-40 by midday, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along and
south of the front this afternoon and continue into the evening.
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible in the strongest
storms, along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday as another cold
front shifts from west to east across Middle Tennessee.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need this afternoon into this evening.

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
302 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

TNZ060-061-075-095-212045-
Bedford TN-Maury TN-Giles TN-Marshall TN-
302 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN MAURY...
NORTHERN GILES AND SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 301 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Lewisburg, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Lewisburg, Cornersville, Lynnville, Belfast, Culleoka
and Farmington.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3526 8683 3538 8717 3557 8705 3553 8636
      3536 8635 3535 8637 3535 8641 3533 8641
      3532 8643 3534 8647 3536 8649 3535 8653
      3536 8654 3537 8659 3536 8660 3533 8660
      3531 8668 3525 8675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 281DEG 19KT 3543 8695

Barnwell