Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WWUS54 KOHX 212000
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
300 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

TNC081-085-135-212030-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0058.000000T0000Z-170321T2030Z/
Perry TN-Humphreys TN-Hickman TN-
300 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR PERRY...SOUTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS AND WESTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES...

At 259 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles north of
Linden, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Linden, Lobelville, Mousetail Landing State Park, Bucksnort,
Pleasantville and I-40 Near The Tennessee River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3574 8802 3577 8798 3580 8797 3583 8797
      3587 8794 3593 8792 3591 8752 3550 8771
      3566 8802 3568 8802 3569 8803 3572 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 291DEG 35KT 3576 8791 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

27

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1217 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Pretty quiet across Middle TN at update time. Some clouds, but the
majority of the mid-state has clear skies and plenty of sunshine.
While enjoyable, we are also becoming very unstable. Dew points
are in the upper 50s and low 60s and with temperatures climbing
into the 70s and low 80s this afternoon, models are suggesting an
instability axis of 2000 to 2500 J/Kg developing from west to east
across Middle TN this afternoon. This would provide more than
enough energy for the severe weather that is expected. Yes,
another shot at severe weather will rear its head later this
afternoon, likely starting in our western counties around 3 or 4
pm and spreading west to east across the mid-state over the
following couple of hours, likely reaching the I-65 corridor/metro
Nashville area around rush hour. This should come in the form of
a quick-hitting MCS, where damaging straight line winds will be
the main severe threat. Also of note will be the large hail
threat. Mid-level lapse rates off of the 12Z OHX sounding are
quite impressive -- 7.5 to 8 degrees C -- so I would not be
surprised to get a few reports of at least golf ball sized hail as
this complex moves through the state. Of no less importance will
be the potential for localized flash flooding. While not
widespread, many areas saw one half to one inch of rain yesterday
and many of those same spots will see a quick inch or more this
afternoon, so keep this in mind when thinking about the severe
weather threats.

The worst of everything should be out of the mid-state by 9 pm at
the latest, but the showers and thunderstorm probably will last
later as the actual front drops further into the mid-state after
midnight. Not currently expecting any severe weather with the
front, but it bears watching.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mostly VFR, but with a boundary sitting across Middle TN, a very
small cloud deck has developed between KCKV and KBNA and has given
KBNA some BKN MVFR cigs. I think there is a good chance that this
deck works its way up to KCKV, so I've prevailed it in the next
couple of hours.

The bigger story will be the line of TS that will push through and
likely affect all 3 terminal later this afternoon and evening.
Have tried to time out the activity with the latest hi-res
guidance, but we can expect IFR cigs/vis with the line.

Conditions will improve rather quickly this evening but as the
front sags into Middle TN, northerly wind gusts will pick up
tonight.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION......Unger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
505 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
505 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
across southern Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening,
generally along and south of the I-40 corridor.

A cold front will shift south to near I-40 by midday, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along and
south of the front this afternoon and continue into the evening.
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible in the strongest
storms, along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday as another cold
front shifts from west to east across Middle Tennessee.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need this afternoon into this evening.

Shamburger