River Flood Warning 16, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

796 
WGUS86 KMTR 210453
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
853 PM PST MON FEB 20 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
California...
 
  Carmel River at Robles Del Rio 
  Coyote Creek near Edenvale 
  Salinas River near Spreckels 

.[insert the hydrological or meteorological reasoning here!!!]

CAC053-220120-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170222T0120Z/
/RDRC1.1.ER.170221T0504Z.170221T0800Z.170221T1320Z.NO/
853 PM PST MON FEB 20 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for
  The Carmel River at Robles Del Rio
* From late Monday evening until Tuesday afternoon
* At 08PM Monday the stage was 7.9 feet
* Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late Monday evening and 
  continue to rise to near 10.8 feet by around midnight Monday 
  Night.The river will then fall below flood stage by Tuesday morning.
* At 11.0 feet...Hacienda Carmel residential development levee is 
  threatened.  Moderate flooding of golf courses and low lying homes 
  along the entire Carmel River.  Homes in the Carmel Lagoon area 
  begin to experience moderate flooding.
* At 10.0 feet...South side of Highway 1 bridge access becomes 
  inundated and impassable.  Many low lying homes threatened along 
  the entire Carmel River.  Low lying homes near Camp Steffani 
  experience substantial flooding and homes near Schulte Road in 
  danger of flooding.  Homes surrounding the Carmel Lagoon area are 
  in danger of flooding.
* At 8.5 feet...Low lying homes from Camp Steffani to below Robles 
  del Rio will begin to flood. Old Odello Ranch near Carmel begins to
  flood.  Homes along Paso Hondo and Dampierre Park subject to 
  flooding.


&&

LAT...LON 3656 12193 3652 12176 3640 12154 3637 12167
      3649 12179 3652 12193       

$$

CAC085-220453-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0014.170221T0436Z-000000T0000Z/
/CYEC1.1.ER.170221T0423Z.170221T0700Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
853 PM PST MON FEB 20 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for
  The Coyote Creek near Edenvale
* From late Monday evening until further notice
* At 08PM Monday the stage was 9.7 feet
* Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late Monday evening and 
  continue to rise to near 11.3 feet around midnight Monday night.
* At 12.0 feet...Moderate flooding possible along portions of Coyote 
  Creek south of I-880.
* At 10.0 feet...Minor localized flooding likely.

&&

LAT...LON 3745 12193 3739 12184 3723 12171 3722 12176
      3729 12186 3744 12196       

$$

CAC053-220453-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0016.170222T0200Z-000000T0000Z/
/SPRC1.1.ER.170222T0200Z.170222T0400Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
853 PM PST MON FEB 20 2017

...Flood Warning continues for
  The Salinas River near Spreckels
* From Tuesday evening until further notice
* At 08PM Monday the stage was 16.6 feet
* Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Tuesday evening and continue
  to rise to near 24.7 feet by around midnight Tuesday night.
* At 24.0 feet...The lowest areas of agricultural land along the 
  lower portions of the Salinas River will have significant flooding.
  River Road will have moderate flooding. Spreckels Boulevard will 
  begin to flood.
* At 23.0 feet...A few homes near the Salinas River along the reach 
  of the river gage will begin to flood. River Road near spreckels 
  will have minor flooding.
* At 19.0 feet...Lowland agricultural areas will have minor flooding.


&&

LAT...LON 3662 12185 3679 12179 3675 12161 3645 12123
     3636 12136                   

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid 
changes and for possible forecast revisions.

The next statement will be issued by 3 AM PST Tuesday or 
sooner as conditions warrant.

&&

096 
WGUS86 KMTR 211130
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
330 AM PST TUE FEB 21 2017

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
California...
  Salinas River near Spreckels

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
California... 
  Carmel River at Robles Del Rio 

.Widespread precipitation has ended across the region and river
levels continue to recede, especially along the Carmel River where
ongoing flooding is expected to ease through late Tuesday morning.
Additional rises on the Salinas River may be possible through
midweek, yet the river is no longer forecast to exceed flood stage.

CAC053-220230-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170222T0230Z/
/RDRC1.1.ER.170221T0541Z.170221T0900Z.170221T1430Z.NO/
330 AM PST TUE FEB 21 2017

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Carmel River at Robles Del Rio
* Until this evening
* At 02 AM Tuesday the stage was 9.4 feet
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by later this 
  morning.
* At 10.0 feet...South side of Highway 1 bridge access becomes 
  inundated and impassable.  Many low lying homes threatened along 
  the entire Carmel River.  Low lying homes near Camp Steffani 
  experience substantial flooding and homes near Schulte Road in 
  danger of flooding.  Homes surrounding the Carmel Lagoon area are 
  in danger of flooding.
* At 8.5 feet...Low lying homes from Camp Steffani to below Robles 
  del Rio will begin to flood. Old Odello Ranch near Carmel begins to
  flood.  Homes along Paso Hondo and Dampierre Park subject to 
  flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 12193 3652 12176 3640 12154 3637 12167
      3649 12179 3652 12193       

$$

CAC053-211200-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-170221T1130Z/
/SPRC1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
330 AM PST TUE FEB 21 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Salinas River near Spreckels
* At 03 AM Tuesday the stage was 16.1 feet
* Additional rises on the river are possible and levels may reach
  monitor stage of 20.0 feet by midweek. However, the river is no
  longer forecast to reach flood stage.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet
* At 19.0 feet...Lowland agricultural areas will have minor flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 12185 3679 12179 3675 12161 3645 12123
     3636 12136                   

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid 
changes and for possible forecast revisions.

The next statement will be issued by 9 AM PST Tuesday or sooner as
conditions warrant.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
433 PM PST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High impact event will persist through the afternoon hours
as an atmospheric river takes aim at the central California coast.
Periods of heavy rainfall are expected, especially along the coastal
ranges, along with strong and gusty southerly winds through this
evening. These conditions will likely result in widespread flooding,
downed trees and power lines resulting in isolated to widespread
power outages. Flooding of area creeks, streams and low lying,
poorly drained areas can also be expected as well as rises on main-
stem rivers. The threat for rock/mud slides, shallow landslides and
debris flows in recent burn scar areas will also increase during the
next 12 to 24 hours. Rainfall and winds will taper off late tonight
into Tuesday. Cool and somewhat drier weather conditions are
expected during the second half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 02:40 PM PST Monday...Much of the afternoon
forecast will be focused on the next 12 to 24 hours as a high
impact event persists over the Bay Area.

Over the last 24 hours rain and wind battered the Central Coast
with a wide range of impacts: downed trees, downed power lines,
flooding both small/large scale and debris/mud and rock slides.
Rainfall was greatest over the North Bay, East Bay Hills, Santa
Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Mts. Many remote stations in the
Santa Lucias had over 5 inches since yesterday. One interesting
factoid is SF Downtown surpassed their water year (Oct-Sep) this
morning at 10AM with 24.50 inches. Normal value for the year is
23.65 inches. Winds have been rather strong with numerous gusts
over 50 mph, most notably over the Santa Lucias.

Current situation synoptically puts a cold front moving into the
North Bay as we speak. The main focus of the heaviest rain is
confined to the front and just south of it. Farther upstream,
abundant lightning is being observed offshore near the upper
low/shortwave trough near 130W. Additionally there is an upper and
lower level jet heading toward the coast. Latest thinking is that
over the next few hours the front will continue to move southward
as the upper low/shortwave move toward the coast. As a result,
expect an increase in rain coverage/intensity. The biggest
increase will be mainly from the North Bay down to the Santa Cruz
Mountains. The additional rainfall tonight through tomorrow will
be a general 1-2" for mainly locations...lesser amounts in the
rain shadowed Santa Clara/Salinas Valley. Coastal Mts, North Bay
Mts, East Bay Hills and Santa Lucias 2-4" locally 6-7". Lots of
available moisture and orographics will lead to the higher
rainfall amounts in terrain favored spots. The other fly in the
ointment are thunderstorms. Latest model guidance, lightning
offshore and Storm Prediction Center indicate thunderstorms will
be possible later this afternoon/evening through Tuesday mainly
from Monterey northward. Any developed thunderstorm will cause
locally higher rainfall amounts. All that being, any additional
rainfall will only exacerbate already stressed
streams/creeks/rivers. Numerous hydro products are currently in
effect. Visit weather.gov/sanfrancisco for the latest information.

Winds will also ramp up with more widespread wind gusts/damage.
Highest gust as of late was Bottchers Gap with a gusts up to 70
mph. High wind warning remains in effect for coast and higher
terrain with wind advisory for inland valleys through 3 AM.

Simply put, we are not out of the woods yet. There maybe parts of
the Bay Area that are seeing sunshine and even a break in precip
this afternoon, but do not let your guard down. The second push
could get interesting, especially if convection really kicks in.

Expect overall conditions to improve late Tuesday into Wednesday
behind the departing AR and frontal boundary with a few lingering
showers.

High pressure builds in bringing cooler and drier conditions mid
week. In fact, enough clearing occurs overnight temps could drop
toward freezing with patchy frost for interior valleys. Medium
range models still indicate active late in the week and next
weekend. This next system looks to be much colder with lower snow
levels. 12z runs looks more impressive than the last run.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:15 PM PST Monday...Frontal system currently
moving through the SFO Bay Area and extends off the coast of MRY
Bay. Surface low behind the front will lift northeast into
northern California tonight. Rain will turn to showers tonight and
continue through Tuesday. Southerly winds have been gusty in
ceratin areas but have been less than expected in others. This
makes for a tricky wind foreacst for tonight. Still expecting
gusty winds up to 40 kt as the surface low will be at its closest
to the area. Winds aloft are strong with sw winds up to 60 kt
at around 2000 feet. Therefore low level wind shear remains in
the tafs.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR for cigs and/or vsbys. Rain turning to
showers tonight with continued wet runways. Southeast winds
switching to southwest and increasing rapidly after 01-02Z to
25-30 kt gusting to 40 kt. Winds decreasing after 12Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR with rain turning to showers
tonight. Southeast winds gusting to 30 kt decreasing slowly after
10Z.

&&

.MARINE...as of 4:30 PM PST Monday...Gale force winds are
expected tonight as a slow moving cold front remains over the
waters. Winds will decrease to small craft by tomorrow morning.
moderate swell along with strong winds will result in hazardous
conditions. Additionally, this system will continue to bring
widespread rainfall along with a chance for isolated thunderstorms
late tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...High Wind Warning...Higher terrain Bay Area to Monterey
			 and San Benito counties.
             Flood Watch...Entire forecast area.
             Wind Advisory...Entire forecast area.
             GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 6 AM
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 6 AM
             GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 6 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 6 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 10 AM
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 1 AM
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar
             SCA...Mry Bay until 10 AM
             GLW...Mry Bay until 10 PM
             SCA...SF Bay until 10 AM
             GLW...SF Bay until 11 PM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: Anna

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
439 PM PST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 N SANTA CRUZ          37.02N 122.03W
02/20/2017                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES POSBL FIRE BLOCKING TRAFFIC ON
            SOUTHBOUND 17 NEAR LA MADRONA DR OFFRAMP

&&

DRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
440 PM PST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 E BOULDER CREEK       37.14N 122.09W
02/20/2017                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REDWOOD TREE DOWN ACROSS ENTIRE ROADWAY RALSTON RIDGE NR
            BEAR CREEK RD

&&

DRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
441 PM PST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SE LEXINGTON HILLS    37.12N 121.94W
02/20/2017                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ENTIRE ROADWAY NR 23920 SUMMIT RD

&&

DRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
443 PM PST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 NE SCOTTS VALLEY      37.11N 121.95W
02/20/2017                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE. POWER LINE ON FIRE. NR 25080
            SOQUEL SAN JOSE RD

&&

DRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
446 PM PST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      9 W FELTON              37.04N 122.23W
02/20/2017                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SLIDE BLOCKING NORTHBOUND LANE OF HIGHWAY1 NEAR SCOTT
            CREEK

&&

DRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
501 PM PST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     FLOOD            4 N HOLLISTER           36.91N 121.40W
02/20/2017                   SAN BENITO         CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POSBL DAMAGE TO BRIDGE ON SAN FELIPE RD BTWN FAIRVIEW AND
            SR156

&&

DRP