Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

758 
WGUS76 KMTR 071820
FFSMTR

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1020 AM PST TUE FEB 7 2017

CAC087-072330-
/O.CON.KMTR.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-170207T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz CA-
1020 AM PST TUE FEB 7 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM PST FOR
CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 1010 AM PST, gauge reports indicated that the San Lorenzo River
at Big Trees was 21.8 feet which is at the threshold of major
flooding.

Excessive rainfall over the warned area will also cause mud slides
near steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud,
vegetation and other loose materials.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Paradise Park, Felton Grove, Tannery Arts Center, and other low
lying area near the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 12209 3706 12207 3700 12203 3698 12202
      3698 12203 3702 12207 3703 12207 3705 12208
      3708 12209 3710 12211

$$

rww

444 
WGUS76 KMTR 072319
FFSMTR

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
319 PM PST TUE FEB 7 2017

CAC087-072325-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-170207T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz CA-
319 PM PST TUE FEB 7 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended in Santa Cruz County with only lingering
showers occurring. Flood waters are still receding and ponded on
local floodplains in the Felton Grove, Paradise Park, and Ben Lomond
areas, but ongoing flash flooding is not expected.  Please continue
to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3710 12209 3706 12207 3700 12203 3698 12202
      3698 12203 3702 12207 3703 12207 3705 12208
      3708 12209 3710 12211

$$

MWS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
402 AM PST Tue Feb 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread rainfall will continue through the day
today along with gusty southerly winds. Precipitation will taper
off tonight into Wednesday before another frontal system sweeps
through on Thursday. Drier weather conditions are then forecast to
return by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 3:25 AM PST Tuesday...Widespread rainfall
fell starting yesterday evening and has continued into the early
morning hours. Precipitation reports haven't been off the charts,
however still substantial amounts have been recorded with many
spots in the North Bay over 2". Have also received a fair number
reports of minor flooding and quite a few gauges have now jumped
to (or soon will) flood stage. Would expect those reports to
increase once we get to day break.

KMUX radar shows that the main band of precipitation is starting
to slowly progress to the south. Models are in good agreement that
trend will continue through the day with the focus of the "fire
hose" (IVT values near 750 kg/m/s) progressing down the coast.
Rain will be moderate to heavy at times which will lead to
additional flooding. WPC analysis indicates potential rain rates
of 1/2" per hour associated with the band. By late this afternoon
urban locations will pick up between 1/2" and 1.25" while coastal
ranges will see anywhere from 1.5" to over 3". Along with the rain
gusty southerly winds will continue at least through the morning.
Gusts over 40 mph are possible.

Rain will switch over to showers late tonight and continue through
all of Wednesday. During this time amounts will be much lighter
with mostly under 1/4" for urban spots. Highest amounts will be
confined to the Santa Lucias where over 1" could fall.

Widspread rain will return again on Thursday as the third and
final system for the week moves through. This one is expected to
move across faster than the one currently impact our region so
rain amounts should be lower. However, IVT values will again be
quite high (near 750 kg/m/s) so will very likely see moderate to
heavy rainfall with more possible flooding. Totals from this
system will range from 1/2" to 1.25" for urban locations with 1"
to 3" for higher elevation spots. If the main moisture plume slows
down, values along coastal ranges will be higher.

Showers will mostly come to an end by Friday evening with dry
weather and warmer conditions expected starting over the weekend.
That should continue to the middle of next week.

Longer range guidance brings another round of rain around Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:15 AM PST Tuesday...Rain and showers will
continue through the majority of the TAF period. CIGs and VIS will
greatly vary due to precipitation (which could be heavy at times) so
only did a general best guess for all locations. Gusty winds can
be expected as well mostly from 120 to 150. Low confidence.

Vicinity of KSFO...Showers through most of the period with winds
between 160 and 200. Strongest speeds will be through 22Z with
gusts over 35 KT possible. Therefore, an Airport Weather Warning
for winds is in effect until 20z Tuesday. CIGs mostly between 018
and 025. Low confidence.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Rain and showers forecast to increase
later this morning with CIGs expected to lower to under 010.
Winds will mostly be 180 to 200 with speeds of 12 to 20 KT though
0Z. Low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...as of 03:30 AM PST Tuesday...Moderate to locally strong
southerly winds and periods of rain will continue today as a
weather system moves across the coastal waters. Winds will ease
slightly tonight. Southerly winds and moderate seas continue
through midweek then another cold front moves through by Thursday
with winds turning NW later thursday into Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...Wind Advisory...CAZ006-505-507>513-517-518-528>530
             Flash Flood Watch...CAZ505>507-509-512-517-529
             SCA...Mry Bay
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 PM
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 PM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 PM
             GLW...SF Bay until 11 AM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell
AVIATION: Bell
MARINE: CW

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
441 AM PST Tue Feb 7 2017

CAZ006-505>513-516>518-528>530-080045-
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
North Bay Interior Valleys-North Bay Mountains-
San Francisco Bay Shoreline-San Francisco Peninsula Coast-
East Bay Interior Valleys-East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-
Santa Cruz Mountains-Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose-
Southern Salinas Valley/Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio-
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
Mountains Of San Benito County And Interior Monterey County
Including Pinnacles National Park-
Northern Salinas Valley/Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley-
Northern Monterey Bay-Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
441 AM PST Tue Feb 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the San Francisco and
Monterey Bay Region.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widespread rainfall will continue through the day along with gusty
southerly winds. Flooding is possible along with downed trees and
power lines. Rain will switch over to showers by this evening.

* Flash flood watch in effect for a portion of our region.

* Wind advisory in effect for a portion of our region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers can be expected on Wednesday with another round of
widespread rain and gusty southerly winds on Thursday. Again
flooding will be possible along with downed trees and power lines.
Showers will return on Friday. Dry weather with warmer conditions
will return by the weekend.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
542 AM PST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 AM     TSTM WND GST     NE SAN FRANCISCO        37.78N 122.41W
02/07/2017  M40 MPH          SAN FRANCISCO      CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MMEHLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
555 AM PST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 AM     FLOOD            3 SSE SONOMA            38.24N 122.44W
02/07/2017                   SONOMA             CA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER COVERING ROAD HWY 121 AND 12

&&

MMEHLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
611 AM PST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLOOD            5 WNW CALISTOGA         38.62N 122.66W
02/07/2017                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING BOTH LANES

0600 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      5 ENE HEALDSBURG        38.64N 122.77W
02/07/2017                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MUD SLIDE BLOCKING EB LAN CHALK HILL RD/SR128

0606 AM     FLOOD            3 NNW GILROY            37.06N 121.59W
02/07/2017                   SANTA CLARA        CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MMEHLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
612 AM PST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 ENE BOULDER CREEK     37.15N 122.08W
02/07/2017                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BLOCKING BOTH LANES. BEAR CREEK RD/WHALEBONE GULCH
            RD.

&&

MMEHLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
622 AM PST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 AM     FLOOD            4 ENE DALY CITY         37.71N 122.39W
02/07/2017                   SAN MATEO          CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0618 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      7 W MONTE RIO           38.46N 123.13W
02/07/2017                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MUD SLIDE ACROSS NB LANE AND PART OF SB LAN SR1.

0618 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SW SAN RAFAEL         37.95N 122.53W
02/07/2017                   MARIN              CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            40 FT TREE DOWN IN ROAD. SIR FRANCIS DRAKE BLVD.

&&

MMEHLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
649 AM PST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST MT. DIABLO RAWS         37.88N 121.91W
02/07/2017  M59.00 MPH       CONTRA COSTA       CA   MESONET

0528 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ROSE PEAK RAWS          37.50N 121.74W
02/07/2017  M62.00 MPH       ALAMEDA            CA   MESONET

0529 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ATLAS PEAK RAWS         38.47N 122.26W
02/07/2017  M66.00 MPH       NAPA               CA   MESONET

0532 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST LOS GATOS RAWS          37.20N 121.95W
02/07/2017  M64.00 MPH       SANTA CLARA        CA   MESONET

0533 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E BERKELEY            37.87N 122.22W
02/07/2017  M56.00 MPH       ALAMEDA            CA   MESONET

0536 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST MIDDLE PEAK RAWS        37.93N 122.59W
02/07/2017  M50.00 MPH       MARIN              CA   MESONET

&&

MMEHLE