Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
351 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Tropical Storm Harvey will
slowly move northeast tonight and should be located in northeast
Louisiana by daybreak tomorrow. Water vapor shows a large dry slot
on the east side of the circulation that will move into the
western zones this evening, shutting off most convection and
focusing it further east to areas east of I-65. Given the decrease
in convective coverage, will drop the Flash Flood Watch for the
western zones at 7pm and continue it further east through
tomorrow. The current bands of convection will move east through
the evening, producing locally heavy rainfall. Another band of
heavy rain is likely to develop somewhere just east of I-65
overnight, including across a portion of the western FL panhandle.
Guidance disagrees on the extent of this band as the incoming dry
air narrows the high precipitable water axis. Nevertheless, at
least a narrow zone of much higher rainfall is likely to develop
in the predawn hours and continue through Thursday morning.
Additional rainfall totals of 2-3" are likely in many eastern
areas through Thursday, with localized amounts of 5-7" possible.
This could certainly lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.
The dry slot advances east during the day tomorrow and the threat
of heavier rain appears to diminish by Thursday afternoon. There
could be an increase in scattered convection over far inland SE
MS/SW AL in the afternoon due to the closer proximity to Harvey's
circulation, but that rainfall is currently not expected to result
in any additional flooding.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect through 6pm for the western half
of the area. It still appears that the threat will diminish this
evening with the drier air overwhelming convection even with
favorable shear parameters in place.

High surf will continue to impact beaches through tomorrow with
breaker heights of 5-6 ft expected. A high risk of rip currents
also continues tomorrow. Some minor coastal flooding is also
likely early tomorrow morning as tides remain above normal with
strong southerly flow. Inundation of 2 to 2.5 ft above ground is
possible in the typical flood prone areas along the coast and
shores of Mobile Bay. /JFB

.SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...Remnant low
of Harvey moves northeast across the Tennessee River Valley Thursday
night then up across the Ohio River Valley on Saturday. Although
Harvey's low lifts away, a lingering moist plume is aligned along
the I-65 corridor into the day Friday, with the higher
environmental moisture (pwats 1.7 to 1.9 inches) being positioned
southeast of the interstate with lower amounts northwest. Within
this moisture axis, mid level impulses shearing northeast on the
eastern periphery of a sharpening mid level trof axis pushing
across the southern US results in a modest chance of showers and
storms along the I-65 corridor with potential of more likely
chances over portions of the western Florida Panhandle, out into
the Gulf waters on Friday. Northern portion of upper trof axis
pivots east over the Appalachians on Saturday, with a westward
extension holding back across the Red River Valley of
Texas/Oklahoma. With the central Gulf coast on the southern flank
of the upper shear zone and potential for a weak front or pressure
trof easing southward to the coast, a small chance of showers and
storms remain in the forecast on Saturday with pwats, although
lower, remaining sufficient to maintain chances.

Highs in the mid 80s on Friday, range from the mid to upper 80s
on Saturday. Overnight lows Thursday night range from the lower to
mid 70s interior to mid to upper 70s beaches. There are
indications that overnight lows may dip into the upper 60s over
the interior both Friday and Saturday nights. Lows along the
beaches generally in the mid 70s heading into the weekend. /10

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Expecting to see scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity to continue through the weekend and
into next week with weak surface front or pressure trof remaining
draped over the forecast area. Best chances will be across the
southern half of the area, where deep layer moisture is expected
to linger (PWATs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches) and the stalled surface
boundary serves as a focus for ascent and convective initiation.
Inland areas (north of Highway 84) more likely to remain dry
Sunday into Sunday night where PWATs are lower north of the
surface boundary. Meanwhile, daytime highs range from the mid to
upper 80's areawide thru Tuesday. Lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s
interior to mid mid 70's beaches.

Heading into the longer term period, model guidance is in relative
good agreement on showing a more substantial front sinking
southward into the Mid-South by Wednesday. This would result in
yet another bump up in thunderstorm activity across the area.
The latest operational GFS run from 30.12Z continues to spin up
another low in the western Gulf ahead of this front while the
ECMWF has its solution of the low hanging down across the
southwest Gulf. Given the divergence in model solutions that far
out, will require further monitoring for a more consistent signal
before making any serious mention or reflection in the forecast.
/10/49

MARINE...A moderate to strong south to southwesterly wind flow
persists thru Thursday night in response to Harvey's low tracking
northeast over the Mississippi Delta into the Tennessee River
Valley. As a result, high seas will continue in the very near term
with a subsiding trend noted through the remainder of the week as
Harvey's influence moves further away. Locally higher winds and
seas, and a few waterspouts are possible in and around the heavier
rain bands moving northward over the marine area in the near
term. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  86  74  87 /  60  50  30  40
Pensacola   79  86  76  86 /  80  70  40  50
Destin      80  85  78  85 /  80  70  50  60
Evergreen   76  86  73  86 /  70  60  30  50
Waynesboro  74  85  70  86 /  50  50  40  20
Camden      75  87  73  86 /  60  60  40  40
Crestview   77  85  74  86 /  80  70  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-053-261-
     263-265.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ALZ055-056-059-
     060-262-264-266.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ263>266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Thursday night for
     GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ630-633-634.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-312100-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
358 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated flash flooding is possible, mainly across areas east of
Interstate 65. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect.

High surf and a high risk of rip currents will continue to impact
local beaches. A High Surf Advisory is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated flash flooding will remain possible through Thursday
morning east of Interstate 65.

High surf and a high risk of rip currents will continue to impact
local beaches through Thursday.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in the typically flood prone
locations Thursday morning during the time of high tide. A Coastal
Flood Advisory is in effect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are encouraged to relay any flooding reports to
the National Weather Service in Mobile.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-312100-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
358 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for strong southerly winds and
high seas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Thursday night for
strong southerly winds and high seas.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
301 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

ALZ052-261>265-302030-
Mobile Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Washington AL-
Mobile Central AL-Mobile Inland AL-
301 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...MOBILE...WEST CENTRAL BALDWIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 257 PM CDT, several clusters of thunderstorms were located across
most of central and northern Mobile County. A line thunderstorms,
capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 40 mph, extended from
near Wilmer, to near Mobile Regional Airport, to near Theodore. The
thunderstorms were moving north at 45 mph.

Estimated wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph have been reported in and
around the Theodore area.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Downtown Mobile, Prichard, Tillmans Corner, Saraland,
Theodore, Chickasaw, Satsuma, Citronelle, Creola, Chunchula,
Gulfcrest, Axis, Calvert, Mount Vernon, Semmes, I65 And I165, Mobile
Regional Airport, Wilmer and I65 And AL 158.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for southwestern
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3043 8810 3059 8821 3075 8838 3131 8825
      3116 8796 3116 8797 3085 8783 3060 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 198DEG 40KT 3077 8833 3066 8820 3053 8810

Butts

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
311 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FOLEY                   30.41N 87.68W
08/30/2017                   BALDWIN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF WATER OVER THE ROAD AT THE INTERSECTION OF CR65
            AND CR12. WATER OVER THE ROAD AT CR16 AND WEST NALL.
            WATER OVER THE ROAD AT CR49 AND BEASLEY RD. REPORTS VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

0850 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SUMMERDALE              30.49N 87.70W
08/30/2017                   BALDWIN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF WATER OVER THE ROAD AT CR32 BETWEEN CR71 AND
            CR73. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0850 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LILLIAN                 30.41N 87.44W
08/30/2017                   BALDWIN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF WATER OVER THE ROAD AT THE INTERSECTION OF CR91
            AND GRAFTON RD.ANOTHER REPORT OF WATER OVER CR93 BETWEEN
            SUNSET DR AND FAIRCLOTH RD. REPORTS VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0850 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ELBERTA                 30.41N 87.60W
08/30/2017                   BALDWIN            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF WATER OVER FRANK RD BETWEEN CR 95 AND CR87.
            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
312 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

ALZ059-262-264-266-FLZ201>204-302100-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Escambia AL-
Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Escambia Coastal FL-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
312 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...BALDWIN...SOUTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA...NORTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA
AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 308 PM CDT, several clusters of strong thunderstorms were located
across Baldwin County Alabama and Escambia County Florida. One line
of thunderstorms extended from near Point Clear, to Bon Secour, to 7
miles south of Gulf Shores, to 18 miles southeast of Fort Morgan.

Other clusters of thunderstorms were located along a line from
Rabun Alabama to Gonzalez Florida.

Both lines were moving north at 50 mph and will be capable of
producing winds in excess of 40 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Ensley, Warrington,
Gonzalez, Gulf Shores, Bay Minette, Atmore, Foley, Pace, Orange
Beach, Goulding, Robertsdale, Century, Flomaton, Loxley, Lillian and
Myrtle Grove.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for southwestern
Alabama.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

LAT...LON 3022 8777 3030 8780 3043 8793 3118 8768
      3107 8730 3100 8715 3076 8708 3051 8713
      3041 8717 3032 8731 3022 8766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 200DEG 43KT 3045 8786 3029 8774 3014 8773 3004
8779

Butts

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