Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Memphis, TN

894 
WWUS54 KMEG 271833
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
133 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

MSC009-271842-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-170327T1900Z/
Benton MS-
133 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
northeastern Mississippi...and western Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3482 8871 3480 8903 3486 8903 3486 8902
      3499 8902 3509 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 249DEG 33KT 3493 8886 

$$

MSC003-139-TNC069-109-271900-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-170327T1900Z/
Tippah MS-Alcorn MS-Hardeman TN-McNairy TN-
133 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN TIPPAH...NORTHWESTERN ALCORN...SOUTHEASTERN HARDEMAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MCNAIRY COUNTIES...

At 132 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Pocahontas, or 10 miles southwest of Big Hill Pond State Park, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. 

Locations impacted include...
Big Hill Pond State Park, Pocahontas, Walnut, Falkner, Brownfield,
Chalybeate, Lone Pine, Crumtown, Essary Springs and Tiplersville.

This storm has a history of producing large hail. Baseball size hail 
was reported in Ashland at 1:06 pm CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8871 3480 8903 3486 8903 3486 8902
      3499 8902 3509 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 249DEG 33KT 3493 8886 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1110 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to add severe wording to the entire region. Also raised
high temperatures across southern half of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A potent upper level low pressure system over southwest Missouri
late this morning will continue to move slowly east today. Mid
level height falls and steepening mid level lapse rates will
continue to overspread a destabilizing low level airmass. A
morning sounding from the Mississippi State sounding team in
OKOLONA, Mississippi, showed some minimal capping based around
2.7 kft. Latest GOES 16 7.34 um shows eastern extent of elevated
mixed layer (EML) spreading into western portions of the forecast
area.

Latest model guidance suggests afternoon SBCAPE values exceeding
2000 j/kg, due to increased low level moisture, along with mid
level lapse rates exceeding 7.5 c/km, associated with the EML,
along and east of the Mississippi River this afternoon. Deep layer
shear around 40 kts will remain through the afternoon over the
region to support storm organization. The degree of instability
combined with the modest deep layer shear should support a mixed
mode of supercell structures and short line segments this
afternoon and evening. Considering the degree of instability, a
few very large hail reports (> 2 inches), along with damaging
winds will be possible today. Model guidance suggests that low
level winds will continue to veer through the afternoon which
could limit the overall tornado threat. The greatest storm
coverage and severe potential will be this afternoon through mid
evening. Stay weather aware today and please pass along any
reports of severe weather or damage to NWS Memphis via NWSChat,
NWS Memphis Webpage, our twitter and facebook feeds.

Updated forecast zones and grids have been sent.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 442 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low
centered over eastern KS, moving slowly east. A shortwave,
possibly convectively-enhanced, had lifted out of north TX into
the Arklatex. Storms over central AR associated with the shortwave
were embedded in elevated moist conveyor belt and had entered the
Midsouth early this morning. KNQA radar showed a 50 KT
southwesterly jet at 2-3 kft. These storms were rooted in an
elevated layer and were moving through an environment of 5.6 to
6.0 C/KM midlevel lapse rates.

The chances for severe storms will increase toward midday with
diurnal heating, the arrival of steep midlevel lapse rates (near
7 C/KM), and steep midlevel height falls. Large hail, possibly
very large in the strongest storms, will be possible along with
damaging winds. Although low level winds will veer slightly
through the morning, RAP model depicts 0-3km SRH in excess of 250
M2/S2 along and north of I-40 this afternoon, suggesting some
midlevel rotation potential. A tornado or two will not be out of
the question but main impact of the midlevel rotation may be to
increase updraft strength and hail size. Much will depend on the
amount of low level instability left following morning showers
and thunderstorms.

Storms should exit the TN River valley area of the Midsouth early
this evening.

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the Midsouth on Tuesday,
following a weak cold frontal passage under low amplitude ridging
aloft. The front will return north as a warm front Wednesday, with
low end thunderstorm chances returning under strengthening
diffluent southwest flow aloft. A low level capping inversion
should limit storm coverage until significant height falls arrive
late Wednesday night, with the approach of a deep closed low over
the southern plains. Medium range model discrepancies remain with
respect to the evolution of this closed upper low, but latest
trends show a more neutral or slight positive tilt to the system
may lessen severe threat for the Midsouth. Much time remains for
the Thursday's severe potential to come into sharper focus.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF Set

Lingering SHRAS will continue over the Mid-South for a couple of
hours. A gust front from overnight convection is currently pushing
through KMEM at this time and will likely reach KMKL by 12Z. Winds
behind the gust front have switched around to the WSW and are
sustained between 12-20 KTS with gusts up to 35 KTS. Only expect
this to occur for an hour or two before returning to the SW and
decreasing a tad in speed. Redevelopment of convection will depend
on how quickly the atmosphere can recover from this morning's
convection. Latest HRRR only shows spotty development until around
21-23Z when a line begins developing over the MO Bootheel and NW
TN. The latest RAP is very similar so have the most confidence
that KMKL will be impacted by the line between 23-02Z and KTUP
between 02-04Z. Will add TEMPOS for those time periods. For KMEM
and KJBR will just leave mention of VCTS wording. SW winds will
turn around to the NW behind the line with speeds diminishing
through the evening. Low clouds will linger at KTUP as the front
stalls just to the south. Meanwhile, KJBR may keep a 3500-4000 FT
due to wrap around clouds behind the low pressure. KMEM and KMKL
will be in between the cloud cover thus would not be surprised to
see some fog development.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
302 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-281015-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
302 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms along and east
of the Mississippi River, and a Slight Risk west to the west.

Thunderstorms will expand in coverage through midday across the
Midsouth, and reach peak intensity with daytime heating this
afternoon. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly over the Enhanced Risk area. An isolated
short-lived tornado or two will be possible during the afternoon
over the Enhanced Risk area.

Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will decrease during the
evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night and
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed today, and may be needed
on Thursday.

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1241 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

TNZ002-003-019-020-271830-
Weakley TN-Obion TN-Dyer TN-Gibson TN-
1241 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR...

West central Weakley County in western Tennessee...
Central Obion County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Dyer County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Gibson County in western Tennessee...

At 1241 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located over Newbern, or near Dyersburg, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in west central Weakley...central Obion...northeastern Dyer
and northwestern Gibson Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3596 8925 3607 8943 3650 8913 3632 8877
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 217DEG 32KT 3608 8929

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1244 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             3 S NEWBERN             36.07N 89.27W
03/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       DYER               TN   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1257 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     HAIL             HOLLY SPRINGS           34.77N 89.44W
03/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       MARSHALL           MS   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
103 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 PM     HAIL             ASHLAND                 34.83N 89.18W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             MS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN ASHLAND TOWN SQUARE.

&&

TLSJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
104 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 PM     HAIL             WHITEVILLE              35.33N 89.15W
03/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       HARDEMAN           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
108 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 PM     HAIL             ASHLAND                 34.83N 89.18W
03/27/2017  E2.75 INCH       BENTON             MS   PUBLIC

&&

JEB