Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Memphis, TN

720 
WWUS54 KMEG 272248
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
548 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

TNC023-069-077-113-272330-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-170327T2330Z/
Henderson TN-Hardeman TN-Madison TN-Chester TN-
548 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN HENDERSON...NORTHEASTERN HARDEMAN...SOUTHERN MADISON
AND CHESTER COUNTIES...

At 547 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Jacks Creek, or
8 miles east of Henderson, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Isolated 
         tornadoes can form with little or no advanced warning. This 
         storm is indicating rotation on radar.
         

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Henderson, Chickasaw State Forest, Chickasaw State Park, Jacks Creek,
Toone, Milledgeville, Enville, Medon, Pinson, Parkburg, Deanburg,
Roby, Teague, Five Points, Montezuma, Cabo and Middle Fork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8851 3539 8851 3539 8853 3538 8857
      3537 8856 3538 8858 3537 8860 3536 8897
      3552 8898 3556 8837 3538 8836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 263DEG 38KT 3546 8850 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
317 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A potent upper level low pressure system rotating over southern
Missouri this afternoon will continue to move slowly east-
southeast through tonight. A surface reflection/low over southeast
Missouri will also move east with a trailing cold front now
entering northeast Arkansas advancing southeast through the night.
The atmosphere ahead of the cold front remains strongly unstable
with SBCAPES around 2500 j/kg and LI'S around -6c. Mid level
height falls along the southern periphery of the upper low will
continue to rotate above the unstable low level airmass with
steepening mid level lapse rates in excess of 7.5 c/km. Deep layer
shear around 40 kts associated with a low and mid level jet
streak rotating around the upper low and over the area has
provided sufficient shear for storm organization. A mix of
supercell structures and short bowing line segments will continue
along and ahead of the cold front as it progresses southeast
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. These storms
will likely be severe with damaging very large hail the primary
threat...with sizes up to 2 inches or greater, or larger than golf
ball size. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado is also
possible through this evening but should remain a secondary
threat. The severe weather threat should wane later this evening
as the instability and shear weakens.

The front should stall across portions of north Mississippi on
Tuesday as upper level ridging briefly builds over the Mid South.
Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday near the front as the low level airmass destabilizes.
Considering the rising mid level heights...not expecting any
severe potential on Tuesday.

Concern shifts then shifts to mid week with an additional threat
for severe storms. A large upper level trough now over California
will close off as a large upper level low pressure system and will
push towards the Mid South by Wednesday. The stalled frontal
boundary to our south will lift back north as a warm front on
Wednesday. Strengthening low level jet winds will surge into the
warm frontal boundary by Wednesday afternoon. The atmosphere
should become quite unstable with CAPE between 1000-1500 j/kg and
mid level lapse rates in excess of 7.5 c/km. Deep layer shear will
increase through the afternoon over the warm front and this
combined with enhanced instability could support a few severe
storms along the northward lifting warm front.

The large upper low will move in from the west Wednesday night
with falling mid level heights and continued unstable low level
airmass. Thunderstorms which should develop over the Arklatex
earlier in the day...some which should be severe...should
consolidate into a squall line and push east into the Mid South
late Wednesday night. A few severe storms will be possible with
this line but it should begin to weaken by sunrise. The atmosphere
should reload behind this line and destabilize on Thursday.
Additional storm should develop and with sufficient shear and
instability in place...expect more potential for severe weather as
the upper low moves over the region.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms on the back side of the upper
low should linger into Friday...but not expecting additional
severe weather during this period.

Upper level ridging should briefly build back into the area for
the first part of the weekend but additional stormy weather
conditions will return by the end of next weekend. Temperatures
should remain near or above seasonal averages through the extended
forecast period.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...18z TAFs

VFR conditions should prevail through this evening outside of
thunderstorms, where reduced cigs/vsbys can be expected. In
addition...some storms could be severe with large hail the primary
hazard. Storms should diminish later this evening with the
potential for fog and stratus to reduce cigs/vsbys late tonight
into Tuesday morning.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
331 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-282245-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
331 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms for west
Tennessee and northeast Mississippi through this evening. A slight
risk for severe thunderstorms remains for the remainder of the Mid
South through this evening. The primary severe weather threat will
be very large hail, with the potential for golf ball size or
larger. A secondary threat for damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes also exists. The severe threat should diminish later
this evening and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There will be additional chances for severe thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Please continue to monitor
the latest forecast for updates on this potential severe weather
event.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening across the
entire Mid South. Additional spotter activation may be needed from
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

JLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
507 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               35.65N 88.39W
03/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
513 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     HAIL             BEACON                  35.63N 88.18W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       DECATUR            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
520 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             BEACON                  35.63N 88.18W
03/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       DECATUR            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
527 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     HAIL             PARSONS                 35.65N 88.12W
03/27/2017  E1.50 INCH       DECATUR            TN   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
533 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             MEDON                   35.46N 88.87W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             MEDON                   35.46N 88.87W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JEB