Tornado Warning 12, NWS Memphis, TN

301 
WWUS54 KMEG 272045
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
345 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

ARC093-TNC045-097-272055-
/O.CAN.KMEG.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-170327T2115Z/
Mississippi AR-Dyer TN-Lauderdale TN-
345 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN
DYER AND NORTHERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and is no longer producing a tornado. Therefore, the warning
has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
eastern Arkansas...and western Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3580 8941 3577 8944 3572 8995 3589 9000
      3604 8948
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 255DEG 30KT 3586 8972 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
317 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A potent upper level low pressure system rotating over southern
Missouri this afternoon will continue to move slowly east-
southeast through tonight. A surface reflection/low over southeast
Missouri will also move east with a trailing cold front now
entering northeast Arkansas advancing southeast through the night.
The atmosphere ahead of the cold front remains strongly unstable
with SBCAPES around 2500 j/kg and LI'S around -6c. Mid level
height falls along the southern periphery of the upper low will
continue to rotate above the unstable low level airmass with
steepening mid level lapse rates in excess of 7.5 c/km. Deep layer
shear around 40 kts associated with a low and mid level jet
streak rotating around the upper low and over the area has
provided sufficient shear for storm organization. A mix of
supercell structures and short bowing line segments will continue
along and ahead of the cold front as it progresses southeast
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. These storms
will likely be severe with damaging very large hail the primary
threat...with sizes up to 2 inches or greater, or larger than golf
ball size. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado is also
possible through this evening but should remain a secondary
threat. The severe weather threat should wane later this evening
as the instability and shear weakens.

The front should stall across portions of north Mississippi on
Tuesday as upper level ridging briefly builds over the Mid South.
Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday near the front as the low level airmass destabilizes.
Considering the rising mid level heights...not expecting any
severe potential on Tuesday.

Concern shifts then shifts to mid week with an additional threat
for severe storms. A large upper level trough now over California
will close off as a large upper level low pressure system and will
push towards the Mid South by Wednesday. The stalled frontal
boundary to our south will lift back north as a warm front on
Wednesday. Strengthening low level jet winds will surge into the
warm frontal boundary by Wednesday afternoon. The atmosphere
should become quite unstable with CAPE between 1000-1500 j/kg and
mid level lapse rates in excess of 7.5 c/km. Deep layer shear will
increase through the afternoon over the warm front and this
combined with enhanced instability could support a few severe
storms along the northward lifting warm front.

The large upper low will move in from the west Wednesday night
with falling mid level heights and continued unstable low level
airmass. Thunderstorms which should develop over the Arklatex
earlier in the day...some which should be severe...should
consolidate into a squall line and push east into the Mid South
late Wednesday night. A few severe storms will be possible with
this line but it should begin to weaken by sunrise. The atmosphere
should reload behind this line and destabilize on Thursday.
Additional storm should develop and with sufficient shear and
instability in place...expect more potential for severe weather as
the upper low moves over the region.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms on the back side of the upper
low should linger into Friday...but not expecting additional
severe weather during this period.

Upper level ridging should briefly build back into the area for
the first part of the weekend but additional stormy weather
conditions will return by the end of next weekend. Temperatures
should remain near or above seasonal averages through the extended
forecast period.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...18z TAFs

VFR conditions should prevail through this evening outside of
thunderstorms, where reduced cigs/vsbys can be expected. In
addition...some storms could be severe with large hail the primary
hazard. Storms should diminish later this evening with the
potential for fog and stratus to reduce cigs/vsbys late tonight
into Tuesday morning.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
302 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-281015-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
302 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms along and east
of the Mississippi River, and a Slight Risk west to the west.

Thunderstorms will expand in coverage through midday across the
Midsouth, and reach peak intensity with daytime heating this
afternoon. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly over the Enhanced Risk area. An isolated
short-lived tornado or two will be possible during the afternoon
over the Enhanced Risk area.

Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will decrease during the
evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night and
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed today, and may be needed
on Thursday.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
214 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             NEW ALBANY              34.49N 89.02W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       UNION              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JEB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
218 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

TNZ092-271945-
Hardin TN-
218 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR...

East central Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 218 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located 7 miles north of Walnut
Grove, or 11 miles east of Savannah, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in east central Hardin County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3508 8805 3513 8814 3537 8802 3535 8801
      3533 8802 3530 8802 3530 8800 3529 8798
      3514 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 211DEG 38KT 3516 8804

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BRADFORD                36.07N 88.82W
03/27/2017                   GIBSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BUILDING FLOODED

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
241 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             DYERSBURG               36.04N 89.38W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       DYER               TN   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
253 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             BOONEVILLE              34.66N 88.57W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       PRENTISS           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HAIL             FULTON                  34.26N 88.40W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   PUBLIC

&&

JEB