Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Memphis, TN

476 
WWUS54 KMEG 272155
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
455 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

TNC075-272205-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0107.000000T0000Z-170327T2215Z/
Haywood TN-
455 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
western Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3556 8862 3553 8864 3560 8893 3568 8897
      3579 8864 3579 8861
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 238DEG 28KT 3565 8887 

$$

TNC113-272215-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0107.000000T0000Z-170327T2215Z/
Madison TN-
455 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY...

At 455 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Jackson, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Bemis, Carroll, Gilmore, Claybrook, Maple Grove, Beech
Bluff, Westover, East Union and Oakfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 8862 3553 8864 3560 8893 3568 8897
      3579 8864 3579 8861
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 238DEG 28KT 3565 8887 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
317 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A potent upper level low pressure system rotating over southern
Missouri this afternoon will continue to move slowly east-
southeast through tonight. A surface reflection/low over southeast
Missouri will also move east with a trailing cold front now
entering northeast Arkansas advancing southeast through the night.
The atmosphere ahead of the cold front remains strongly unstable
with SBCAPES around 2500 j/kg and LI'S around -6c. Mid level
height falls along the southern periphery of the upper low will
continue to rotate above the unstable low level airmass with
steepening mid level lapse rates in excess of 7.5 c/km. Deep layer
shear around 40 kts associated with a low and mid level jet
streak rotating around the upper low and over the area has
provided sufficient shear for storm organization. A mix of
supercell structures and short bowing line segments will continue
along and ahead of the cold front as it progresses southeast
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. These storms
will likely be severe with damaging very large hail the primary
threat...with sizes up to 2 inches or greater, or larger than golf
ball size. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado is also
possible through this evening but should remain a secondary
threat. The severe weather threat should wane later this evening
as the instability and shear weakens.

The front should stall across portions of north Mississippi on
Tuesday as upper level ridging briefly builds over the Mid South.
Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday near the front as the low level airmass destabilizes.
Considering the rising mid level heights...not expecting any
severe potential on Tuesday.

Concern shifts then shifts to mid week with an additional threat
for severe storms. A large upper level trough now over California
will close off as a large upper level low pressure system and will
push towards the Mid South by Wednesday. The stalled frontal
boundary to our south will lift back north as a warm front on
Wednesday. Strengthening low level jet winds will surge into the
warm frontal boundary by Wednesday afternoon. The atmosphere
should become quite unstable with CAPE between 1000-1500 j/kg and
mid level lapse rates in excess of 7.5 c/km. Deep layer shear will
increase through the afternoon over the warm front and this
combined with enhanced instability could support a few severe
storms along the northward lifting warm front.

The large upper low will move in from the west Wednesday night
with falling mid level heights and continued unstable low level
airmass. Thunderstorms which should develop over the Arklatex
earlier in the day...some which should be severe...should
consolidate into a squall line and push east into the Mid South
late Wednesday night. A few severe storms will be possible with
this line but it should begin to weaken by sunrise. The atmosphere
should reload behind this line and destabilize on Thursday.
Additional storm should develop and with sufficient shear and
instability in place...expect more potential for severe weather as
the upper low moves over the region.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms on the back side of the upper
low should linger into Friday...but not expecting additional
severe weather during this period.

Upper level ridging should briefly build back into the area for
the first part of the weekend but additional stormy weather
conditions will return by the end of next weekend. Temperatures
should remain near or above seasonal averages through the extended
forecast period.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...18z TAFs

VFR conditions should prevail through this evening outside of
thunderstorms, where reduced cigs/vsbys can be expected. In
addition...some storms could be severe with large hail the primary
hazard. Storms should diminish later this evening with the
potential for fog and stratus to reduce cigs/vsbys late tonight
into Tuesday morning.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
331 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-282245-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
331 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms for west
Tennessee and northeast Mississippi through this evening. A slight
risk for severe thunderstorms remains for the remainder of the Mid
South through this evening. The primary severe weather threat will
be very large hail, with the potential for golf ball size or
larger. A secondary threat for damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes also exists. The severe threat should diminish later
this evening and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There will be additional chances for severe thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Please continue to monitor
the latest forecast for updates on this potential severe weather
event.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening across the
entire Mid South. Additional spotter activation may be needed from
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

JLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
349 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             MANILA                  35.88N 90.16W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       MISSISSIPPI        AR   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             JACKSON                 35.63N 88.83W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             JACKSON                 35.63N 88.83W
03/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       MADISON            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            DOWNTOWN LOCATION

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
420 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             LUXORA                  35.76N 89.93W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       MISSISSIPPI        AR   NWS STORM SURVEY

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
423 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             JACKSON                 35.63N 88.83W
03/27/2017  E1.50 INCH       MADISON            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
426 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             RIPLEY                  35.75N 89.53W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       LAUDERDALE         TN   PUBLIC

&&

JEB