Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
318 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Lingering showers from the remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy
continue across portions of Northeast Mississippi, generally
southeast of an Iuka to Houston, Mississippi line. Meanwhile, the
atmosphere has quickly recovered across Northeast Arkansas behind
the departing tropical system. CAPE values are running around 4500
J/kg with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Showers and
thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front are beginning to
push into this warm and juicy airmass. This will allow for these
storms to quickly become severe. Damaging winds will be the main
threat from these storms. Expect these storms to be entering into
the Memphis Metro Area between 5-6 PM CDT before continuing
southward into Northwest Mississippi. Believe the line will really
start moving quickly as a cold pool develops thus the line could
be south of the CWA by the late evening hours. Will hold onto the
Flash Flood Watch for now as some flash flooding could occur in
areas that received the heaviest rain from Cindy.

Drier air will gradually filter into the Mid-South over the
weekend as surface high pressure builds into the area from the
north. Can't rule out some isolated showers and thunderstorms
on Saturday across North Mississippi as the higher dewpoints may
linger across the region. However, do expect rain free conditions
for the remainder of the weekend into the middle of next week. The
one caveat will be that a MCS could develop in northwest flow
aloft Sunday Night across Southwest Missouri and move
southeastward skirting northern portions of the Mid-South on
Monday.

High temperatures will be in the 80s with lows ranging from the
mid 50s to the mid 60s from Saturday through Wednesday. Low
humidity will make it feel pleasant outside. Humidity levels will
begin to creep back up by Wednesday as the surface high pushes
east allowing winds to turn around to the south. Chances for
diurnal convection will begin to occur on Thursday.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

Remnants from TS Cindy continue to impact the region. Low clouds
and rain will continue to shift east with cigs improving through
the afternoon. Gusty SW winds will gradually diminish this
afternoon. Watching a complex of showers and thunderstorms
developing over SW MO that will race SE into the Mid-South later
this afternoon and this evening. Will introduce tempos for TSRA at
KJBR and KMEM and add VCTS at KMKL and KTUP. VFR conds return
this evening though low clouds expected to redevelop after 06z at
KTUP. Winds will shift to the north overnight increasing to about
10 kts Saturday morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Dunklin-
     Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Benton MS-
     Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
     Hardeman-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
131 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-242045-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
131 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A flash flood watch is in effect through midnight for much of the
Mid-South except Northeast Mississippi and parts of Northeast
Arkansas.

A line of strong to severe storms will move into the Mid-South
later this afternoon into this evening. Damaging winds are the
main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

SJM