Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Memphis, TN

711 
WGUS74 KMEG 231636
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1136 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

ARC107-MSC027-143-231646-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-170623T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Phillips AR-Coahoma MS-Tunica MS-
1136 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PHILLIPS...NORTHEASTERN COAHOMA AND
TUNICA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 AM CDT...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3464 9058 3470 9056 3468 9054 3464 9055
      3463 9052 3469 9046 3470 9054 3474 9021
      3470 9023 3465 9021 3462 9024 3453 9022
      3451 9030 3445 9030 3442 9033 3442 9040
      3438 9040 3435 9099 3464 9104

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
641 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The remnants of Cindy remain the focus for this forecast update.
Early morning satellite and radar trends show an increase in
convection to the Northeast of the center of circulation. The
HRRR model seems to have a very good handle on this
development...although it seems to have the low/Cindy a bit too
far North. WPC 24hr QPF totals are below 3 inches with 3 and 6 hr
Flash Flood guidance of 2.5-3.5 inches and 3-4 inches
respectively. Observed three hour rainfall rates associated with
the convection in East Arkansas are increasing but remain below
1.5 inches per hour. Precipitable water values in excess of two
inches...may result in rain rates as high as 2 inches per hour
over the next few hours. Vertical wind profiles near and West of
the Mississippi are more unidirectional than they are farther East
supporting training of showers/thunderstorms. However as the
low/Cindy moves to the Northeast...the focus for the any training
storms should shift East. Not very confident that the ongoing
Flash flood watch is warranted...but with the recent convective
development and coordination with surrounding offices decided to
not make any changes.

The Storm Prediction Center has included a small portion of West
Tennessee and Northeast Mississippi...mainly near the Tennessee
River and Alabama state line in a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms today. Farther West to the Mississippi River there
is a Marginal risk. The main threat will be brief tornadoes to the
East of the center of circulation where vertical shear is
maximized.

Highs today...and for the next 5 days or more should remain below
normal. Some guidance even keeps far Northern portions of the
Midsouth in the 70s for highs early next week. That seems unlikely
in late June...so I tacked on a couple degrees to guidance during
that timeframe. After midweek high temperatures should rebound
back to within a couple degrees of normal...generally in the upper
80s. After Cindy moves out of the area this evening and a cold
front shifts through the area tonight there does not appear to be
any enhanced chance of rain for the next 7 days. No plans to add
anything to the HWO.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF cycle

Low clouds will remain over the region for much of the day as the
remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy move across the forecast area.
Periods of rain will continue through much of the daylight hours
as well. Conditions will improve late tonight with VFR conditions
returning. Winds will be mainly from the south today at 10 to 15
knots with higher gusts shifting to the north tonight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Benton MS-Coahoma-
     DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tunica-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-Obion-
     Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
358 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-241100-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
358 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A flash flood watch is in effect tonight for much of the Mid-South
except Northeast Mississippi and parts of Northeast Arkansas.

A few strong to severe storms are possible today to the East of
the center of circulation associated with the remnants of
Cindy....mainly in Northeast Mississippi and West Tennessee near
the Tennessee River. Brief tornadoes are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through Friday evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
726 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

ARZ027-035-036-048-049-058-MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ049-050-052>055-
088>092-231530-
Poinsett-Cross-Crittenden-St. Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-DeSoto-
Marshall-Benton MS-Tippah-Alcorn-Tishomingo-Tunica-Tate-Prentiss-
Coahoma-Quitman-Panola-Lafayette-Union-Pontotoc-Lee MS-Itawamba-
Tallahatchie-Yalobusha-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Monroe-Tipton-Haywood-
Madison-Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-McNairy-
Hardin-
Including the cities of Harrisburg, Wynne, West Memphis,
Forrest City, Marianna, Helena, West Helena, Southaven,
Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Iuka,
Tunica, Senatobia, Booneville, Clarksdale, Marks, Batesville,
Oxford, New Albany, Pontotoc, Tupelo, Fulton, Charleston,
Water Valley, Coffeeville, Bruce, Calhoun City, Houston, Okolona,
Amory, Aberdeen, Covington, Brownsville, Jackson, Henderson,
Lexington, Parsons, Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown,
Collierville, Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar,
Selmer, and Savannah
726 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...BRIEF GUSTY WIND EXPECTED AS THE REMNANTS OF CINDY TRACK
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...

Wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible this morning along the
leading edge of enhanced convection associated with the remnants
of tropical storm Cindy. Sustained winds may exceed 25 mph along
with the higher gusts but should not last more than should 30
minutes at any given location.