Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Memphis, TN

795 
WGUS74 KMEG 231248
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
748 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

ARC037-077-123-231258-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0044.000000T0000Z-170623T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lee AR-St. Francis AR-Cross AR-
748 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LEE...WESTERN ST. FRANCIS
AND SOUTHERN CROSS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3500 9112 3500 9105 3526 9104 3529 9056
      3468 9104 3469 9105 3473 9105 3474 9110
      3487 9110 3487 9112 3491 9112 3491 9115

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
348 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The remnants of Cindy remain the focus for this forecast update.
Early morning satellite and radar trends show an increase in
convection to the Northeast of the center of circulation. The
HRRR model seems to have a very good handle on this
development...although it seems to have the low/Cindy a bit too
far North. WPC 24hr QPF totals are below 3 inches with 3 and 6 hr
Flash Flood guidance of 2.5-3.5 inches and 3-4 inches
respectively. Observed three hour rainfall rates associated with
the convection in East Arkansas are increasing but remain below
1.5 inches per hour. Precipitable water values in excess of two
inches...may result in rain rates as high as 2 inches per hour
over the next few hours. Vertical wind profiles near and West of
the Mississippi are more unidirectional than they are farther East
supporting training of showers/thunderstorms. However as the
low/Cindy moves to the Northeast...the focus for the any training
storms should shift East. Not very confident that the ongoing
Flash flood watch is warranted...but with the recent convective
development and coordination with surrounding offices decided to
not make any changes.

The Storm Prediction Center has included a small portion of West
Tennessee and Northeast Mississippi...mainly near the Tennessee
River and Alabama state line in a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms today. Farther West to the Mississippi River there
is a Marginal risk. The main threat will be brief tornadoes to the
East of the center of circulation where vertical shear is
maximized.

Highs today...and for the next 5 days or more should remain below
normal. Some guidance even keeps far Northern portions of the
Midsouth in the 70s for highs early next week. That seems unlikely
in late June...so I tacked on a couple degrees to guidance during
that timeframe. After midweek high temperatures should rebound
back to within a couple degrees of normal...generally in the upper
80s. After Cindy moves out of the area this evening and a cold
front shifts through the area tonight there does not appear to be
any enhanced chance of rain for the next 7 days. No plans to add
anything to the HWO.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs

Center of Tropical Depression Cindy is centered near Shreveport,
La. This tropical depression is expected to move northeast between
Jonesboro and Memphis on Friday and move northeast towards
Louisville, Kentucky by Friday night. As a result, rain chances
will persist through much of the period as the tropical remnants
combine with a cold front. LLWS is included at MEM, MKL, and TUP
late tonight through early Friday afternoon as 2000 ft winds will
average between 50-55 kts. MVFR conditions expected to prevail
through much of the period. SE/S winds will gradually veer SW then
NW as the depression moves northeast away from the area.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Benton MS-Coahoma-
     DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tunica-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-Obion-
     Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
358 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-241100-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
358 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A flash flood watch is in effect tonight for much of the Mid-South
except Northeast Mississippi and parts of Northeast Arkansas.

A few strong to severe storms are possible today to the East of
the center of circulation associated with the remnants of
Cindy....mainly in Northeast Mississippi and West Tennessee near
the Tennessee River. Brief tornadoes are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through Friday evening.