Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1258 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1104 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

UPDATE...

Tropical Depression Cindy will continue to track northeastward
through Northwest Tennessee this afternoon. As a result, rain
bands will continue to impact much of West Tennessee and Northeast
Mississippi. Meanwhile, a cold front that is currently located
across Southwest Missouri will push southeastward into Northeast
Arkansas. Several short term models indicate the atmosphere will
destabilize to allow for shower and thunderstorm development along
and ahead of the front. Will update shortly to make some minor
adjustments to afternoon POPS.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

The remnants of Cindy remain the focus for this forecast update.
Early morning satellite and radar trends show an increase in
convection to the Northeast of the center of circulation. The HRRR
model seems to have a very good handle on this
development...although it seems to have the low/Cindy a bit too
far North. WPC 24hr QPF totals are below 3 inches with 3 and 6 hr
Flash Flood guidance of 2.5-3.5 inches and 3-4 inches
respectively. Observed three hour rainfall rates associated with
the convection in East Arkansas are increasing but remain below
1.5 inches per hour. Precipitable water values in excess of two
inches...may result in rain rates as high as 2 inches per hour
over the next few hours. Vertical wind profiles near and West of
the Mississippi are more unidirectional than they are farther East
supporting training of showers/thunderstorms. However as the
low/Cindy moves to the Northeast...the focus for the any training
storms should shift East. Not very confident that the ongoing
Flash flood watch is warranted...but with the recent convective
development and coordination with surrounding offices decided to
not make any changes.

The Storm Prediction Center has included a small portion of West
Tennessee and Northeast Mississippi...mainly near the Tennessee
River and Alabama state line in a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms today. Farther West to the Mississippi River there
is a Marginal risk. The main threat will be brief tornadoes to the
East of the center of circulation where vertical shear is
maximized.

Highs today...and for the next 5 days or more should remain below
normal. Some guidance even keeps far Northern portions of the
Midsouth in the 70s for highs early next week. That seems unlikely
in late June...so I tacked on a couple degrees to guidance during
that time frame. After midweek high temperatures should rebound
back to within a couple degrees of normal...generally in the upper
80s. After Cindy moves out of the area this evening and a cold
front shifts through the area tonight there does not appear to be
any enhanced chance of rain for the next 7 days. No plans to add
anything to the HWO.

30

.AVIATION...

Remnants from TS Cindy continue to impact the region. Low clouds
and rain will continue to shift east with cigs improving through
the afternoon. Gusty SW winds will gradually diminish this
afternoon. Watching a complex of showers and thunderstorms
developing over SW MO that will race SE into the Mid-South later
this afternoon and this evening. Will introduce tempos for TSRA at
KJBR and KMEM and add VCTS at KMKL and KTUP. VFR conds return
this evening though low clouds expected to redevelop after 06z at
KTUP. Winds will shift to the north overnight increasing to about
10 kts Saturday morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Dunklin-
     Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Benton MS-
     Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
     Hardeman-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
131 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-242045-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
131 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A flash flood watch is in effect through midnight for much of the
Mid-South except Northeast Mississippi and parts of Northeast
Arkansas.

A line of strong to severe storms will move into the Mid-South
later this afternoon into this evening. Damaging winds are the
main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

SJM