Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

928 
WWUS54 KMAF 190759
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
259 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

TXC335-415-190845-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-170519T0845Z/
Mitchell TX-Scurry TX-
259 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR MITCHELL AND SOUTHEASTERN SCURRY COUNTIES...

At 259 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Colorado City,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Colorado City, China Grove, Valley View, Loraine, Westbrook, Colorado
City Airport, Hermleigh, Lake Colorado City, Lake Colorado City State
Park, Inadale, Champion Creek Reservoir, Buford, Dunn, Us-
180 Near The Fisher-Scurry County Line and Midway.

THIS INCLUDES Interstate 20 between mile markers 208 and 228.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 10107 3249 10098 3275 10066 3209 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 226DEG 13KT 3244 10086 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

10

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1211 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. Any TS that develops
overnight should remain east of all TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 928 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the dryline slowly retreating up thru
the lwr Trans Pecos, w/convection trying to develop along this
feature east of the area. However, hi-res models continuing to
show convection developing in the Permian Basin after 06Z. We've
let the RFW and HWW expire, and will do a quick update to remove
them from grids and products. We'll also adjust other parameters
as necessary based on latest obs and forecast data. Updates out
shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another hot and windy afternoon underway as the dryline continues
eastward across the area. This boundary will waffle back and
forth over our region the couple of days bringing chances for
rain mainly for the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Much of W TX and SE NM has not received appreciable rainfall in
over a month and fuels continue to dry. Thus the need for Red Flag
Warnings over a large portion of the CWA. Please see the Fire Wx
section below for more information.

An upper level trough over the Rockies will lift into the Plains in
the coming days. Height falls associated with this system will
pull the dryline back west tonight to near the I-20 corridor. A
shortwave will round the base of the trough overnight helping to
increase large scale lift. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the dryline after midnight and push east. Will follow the
HRRR closest with respect to the position of the dryline since it
did will Tuesday with a similar situation. Some of these storms
will have the potential to be severe given adequate shear and
steep lapse rates. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threat with these storms. The dryline will move east again Friday
with much of our area being the in dry air by afternoon.

A cold front will head south as the upper trough lifts into the
Plains Saturday. A few storms are possible along the boundary Friday
night into Saturday mainly over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos. Much cooler conditions are expected behind the front
with below normal temperatures lasting through the weekend.

We warm slightly early next week before yet another cold front makes
a run at the area on Tuesday. A few more storms are possible with
this front as well, but widespread precipitation is not looking
likely at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fuel conditions are pretty primed across the area today with the ERC
at the 75th percentile across most of the PB and 90th across the
Trans Pecos. Meanwhile critical fire is largely occurring across the
area too with single digit RHs across much of the Trans Pecos. Winds
are mostly 15-25 mph resulting RFTI of 3-4. RFW will continue until
9 PM CDT/8 PM MDT. Thur fire wx will be a concern again, but winds
will probably be just a little less. 85h winds of 20-22kts may end
up in a narrow corridor from the Upper Trans Pecos into the ne PB,
RH will be no problem. As such most favored area for RF wx will be
GDP Mtns/Upper Trans Pecos, possibly Eddy Co.? However fuels across
the Trans Pecos including BBNP and SE NM are dry enough keeping Sig
Fire Potential at least moderate? For now will issue a fire wx watch
for the GDP Mtns for Fri, but could be expanded to included
Culberson Co, Eddy County plains, most of the Trans Pecos for tmw as
a fuel biased RF could be justified.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  78  57  82 /  20  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       52  81  56  85 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         67  81  64  82 /  30  40  40  50
Fort Stockton                  61  81  60  84 /  10  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 52  76  55  79 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                          50  78  52  81 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          45  81  51  81 /   0  10  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           57  81  57  83 /  10  20  10  20
Odessa                         57  80  58  83 /  10  10  10  20
Wink                           55  82  58  85 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MDT Friday through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MDT Friday through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

99/99/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
906 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-200215-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
906 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017 /806 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A few thunderstorms could occur late tonight over the Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos. A few of these storms could be severe with
large hail and strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Thunderstorms will be possible Friday and Saturday, mainly over the
Permian Basin.  A few storms could be strong.

A fire weather watch is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains on
Friday, but fire danger will high to very high across most areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but local interest should be
prepared for the possibility of a few severe storms late tonight and
early Friday morning across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland