Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

May 3, 2017Johnson County, Logan County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this special weather statement at May 3, 2017, 9:21 AM CDT for Johnson County, Logan County, Arkansas. It was in force for 54 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 3, 2017, 9:21 AM CDT (14:21 UTC)
Expired
May 3, 2017, 10:15 AM CDT
In force
54 min
Issued by
NWS Little Rock, AR

Counties Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 2.4 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2017-05-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2017-05-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 696 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
672 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
76 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
696 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
908 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 3, 6:19 AM CDT, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 3, 6:19 AM CDT, 3 hours 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
619 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.AVIATION...
Convection continues to develop along a warm front located across
the northern part of the state. VFR conditions early this morning
will deteriorate as chances for SHRA/TSRA increase through the day
as a storm system moves through the state. This will create MVFR
or IFR or even possibly lower flight conditions in the afternoon
hours and beyond for most sites with precipitation likely. Winds
will shift to the northwest over the northwest half of the state
by the end of the period as a front starts to make its way across
the state.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 325 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017
)

Short Term...Today through Thursday night

After only a few days to dry out from the strong weekend storm, rain
once again appears likely for the majority of the CWA. Overall the
system is more progressive than its predecessor but once again some
areas could see locally heavy rain with increasing severe weather
possibilities, especially over the south. With short term models in
generally good agreement, a blend of forecast solutions will be
used.

Moisture channel imagery shows a shortwave trough currently moving
through the central and southern plains. Meanwhile, a warm front is
continuing to make its way north through the state with thunderstorm
activity already ongoing over northeast Oklahoma and southern
Missouri in response.

Models all continue to point to amplification of the upper trough with
an upper low pinching off and located over northern Arkansas by
Thursday morning. Surface low pressure is expected to develop on the
aforementioned boundary and travel east through the day. PWATS are
expected to ramp up through the day as southerly flow increases with
deep moisture getting into central and especially southern parts of
the state.

As the trough continues to advance and a cold front sweeps through
the state, rain is expected to develop with southern Arkansas seeing
the heaviest amounts. However, convection along the gulf will likely
rob some of the available moisture but localized amounts in excess
of two inches is likely, Another area of concern is the north with a
swath of higher precipitation possible just to the north of the warm
front. Another inch or two can not be ruled out across the north and
with the ground so saturated, a flash flood watch seems prudent and
it will be left in place.

A line of storms is expected to develop in advance of the front and
overall dynamics do look better versus previous runs. Once again the
south seems to be the favored area for any severe weather but the
risk area has been expanded to cover a good part of the state.

Front will be east of the state by Thursday morning but the upper
low will take most of the day to exit with an ongoing chance of
showers. Gusty northwest winds develop behind the front Thursday
with the pressure gradient tight enough that some type of wind
headlines will likely be needed. Much cooler temperatures are
expected Thursday with some areas not getting out of the 50s.

Long Term...Friday through Tuesday night

Not a lot to talk about in the long term really. It appears it will
be a dry forecast period, as a strong ridge of high pressure
develops over the Rockies in the wake of the departing upper low
that will have brought another round of rainfall to Arkansas today
and tomorrow. The result will be mostly clear/sunny conditions
and a gradual warmup through the late week and weekend time
period. Temperatures will start off below normal but will rise
slightly above normal by the weekend.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Baxter-Boone-
Fulton-Izard-Marion-Newton-Searcy-Sharp-Stone.

&&

Aviation...56
Hazardous weather outlook, May 3, 5:00 AM CDT, 4 hours 21 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A strong storm system system and its associated cold front will move
through the region today and tonight. Strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms will be possible as the cold front moves through the
area.

There is a enhanced risk of severe weather over southern arkansas
with a slight risk over the central part of the state. The main
concern at this time is damaging winds and large hail but a tornado
can not be discounted.

Heavy rain in excess of two inches or more is possible over the
south which could lead to localized flooding. While amounts across
the north are not expected to be as high, any additional rain will
only increase flooding and river flooding concerns as the ground
remains saturated. Right now, an additional one to two inches of
additional rain can not be ruled out over the north.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

The upper level part of the storm system will move across the state
on Thursday with continuing chances of rain. Gusty northwest winds
in excess of 25 mph at times will develop behind the departing
system with much cooler temperatures expected.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Wednesday afternoon to evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

56

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 3, 8:29 AM CDT, 52 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
829 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

ARZ037-040-031415-
Polk AR-Scott AR-
829 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT AND POLK
COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

At 828 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Heavener to near
Hatfield to 11 miles west of Gillham. Movement was northeast at 30
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mena...                           Wickes...
Grannis...                        Hatfield...
Vandervoort...                    Beauchamp...
Cossatot River State Park...      Mountain Fork...
Polk County Fairgrounds...        Mena Intermountain Airport...
Mccauley...                       Shady...
Oliver...                         Hartley...
Morgan Springs...                 Queen Wilhelmina State Park...
Caney Creek Wilderness...         Cove...
Bates...                          Acorn...

&&

LAT...LON 3493 9445 3495 9440 3495 9438 3497 9436
      3495 9435 3496 9425 3499 9423 3455 9400
      3435 9404 3436 9425 3419 9425 3419 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1328Z 255DEG 15KT 3482 9462 3446 9444 3414 9451

46
Special weather statement, May 3, 9:21 AM CDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
921 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

ARZ021-030-037-031515-
Johnson AR-Scott AR-Logan AR-
921 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOGAN...JOHNSON...AND
NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM CDT...

At 919 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fern to Ratcliff to Oliver. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville...                    Booneville...
Paris...                          Lamar...
Magazine...                       Subiaco...
Hartman...                        Scranton...
Ratcliff...                       Blue Mountain...
Hoyt...                           Midway in Logan County...
Woodland...                       Hinkle...
Mount Magazine...                 Echo...
Oliver...                         Spadra...
Tokalon...                        Coal Hill...

LAT...LON 3495 9430 3497 9423 3502 9423 3515 9411
      3515 9403 3523 9402 3523 9392 3532 9391
      3531 9381 3542 9380 3536 9375 3538 9371
      3572 9370 3576 9353 3555 9328 3514 9363
      3513 9371 3503 9373 3491 9434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 244DEG 46KT 3560 9402 3531 9391 3494 9428

46

The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 8:29 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKPolk46 min
May 3, 8:37 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPolk38 min
May 3, 9:24 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKMontgomery, Pike51 min
May 3, 10:00 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKJohnson, Newton, Pope, Searcy, Van Buren45 min
May 3, 10:07 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKClark, Garland, Hot Spring53 min
May 3, 10:16 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLZKWhite11 days
May 3, 10:49 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKBaxter, Marion, Searcy, Stone41 min
May 3, 10:54 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKClark, Garland, Grant, Hot Spring, Pulaski, Saline51 min
May 3, 11:13 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGrant, Hot Spring, Saline32 min
May 3, 11:27 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKClark, Garland, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Pike, Polk and 1 more3 hr
May 3, 11:41 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKCleveland, Grant, Jefferson, Lonoke, Pulaski49 min
May 3, 12:14 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKClark, Cleveland, Dallas, Garland, Grant, Hot Spring and 3 more3 hr
May 3, 2:32 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKClark, Garland, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Pike3 hr
May 3, 3:13 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKClark, Cleveland, Dallas, Garland, Grant, Hot Spring and 5 more3 hr
May 3, 3:57 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningLZKClark, Hot Spring72 hr
May 3, 4:05 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningLZKClark, Nevada, Ouachita69 hr
May 3, 5:02 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKLonoke, Pulaski43 min
May 3, 6:11 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKClark, Cleveland, Dallas, Garland, Grant, Hot Spring and 5 more3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2017Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.