River Flood Warning 41, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
328 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday

GOES16 6.9 micron imagery shows an amplifying upper level pattern
over North America, with a deep trough digging through the
central/southern plain and associated surface low pressure system
in the ArkLaTex region.

In the near term...the aforementioned surface low will gradually
strengthen as it moves northeast across southern Arkansas. Showers
and thunderstorms continue to overspread the state with ample
upper lift as a result of DPVA with the digging trough and right-
entrance divergence aloft. As the system moved just a bit faster
than initially expected, the associated warm front has been unable
to make it into Arkansas, resulting in virtually non-existent
surface instability. Decent mid-level lapse rates this morning
resulted in a few elevated thunderstorms this morning...with some
marginally-severe hail. However, ongoing convection with this
slowing system has softened lapse rates such that thunderstorm
activity is gradually diminishing.

Unfortunately, with the gradual slowing of this system and ample
upper lift, localized heavy rainfall will fall across parts of the
state today. Some areas have already received up to three inches,
especially across portions of the Ouachitas and the I30 corridor
and another localized inch or two will be possible. In somewhat
good news, the heaviest rain should be south of I40... and not in
the upper Northeast Arkansas river basins where major flooding is
occurring.

Models are in very good agreement with the pattern over the rest
of the short term period. As the deepening trough reaches the
Mid- South region, the upper low is expected to cut off from the
main flow. As this happens, the associated surface low is expected
to slow further. This will result in a very cool period for
Arkansas for a couple of days. Wrap around moisture from the
surface low will result in low cloud cover and possible some light
rain/drizzle over the northeast quadrant of the state on
Thursday.

Cloud cover will gradually decrease west to east on Thursday as
drier air begins to filter into the low levels. Areas which
receive insolation (probably the west), by mid day, will likely
get into the low to mid 60s. Elsewhere, under cloud cover,
temperatures will be well below average... from the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

By Friday, much drier air will have advected into the boundary
layer... resulting in much drier conditions. Even with plenty of
clear skies // insolation, Friday will be rather cool with stiff
northerly winds and very cool airmass in place.

&&

.Long Term...Friday Night through Wednesday

A storm system will be exiting to the east as the extended period
begins. After that, another big system will dig its heels into the
western United States. As this happens, a huge ridge of high
pressure will build over the Plains, and will inch toward Arkansas.
This will result in a mostly dry forecast.

A northwest flow around the ridge will drive a cold front into the
region this weekend from the Ohio Valley. The front will probably
not go all the way through, and moisture will be limited. No rain is
expected at this time. The front will lift back to the north early
next week as the ridge becomes more dominant.

Temperatures will be below average through Saturday, but will warm
to at/above average levels thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     51  55  50  67 /  90  70  10   0
Camden AR         52  67  51  73 /  70  20   0   0
Harrison AR       46  61  47  65 /  70  40  10   0
Hot Springs AR    52  65  52  71 /  60  30   0   0
Little Rock   AR  53  59  51  70 /  80  50  10   0
Monticello AR     55  61  52  69 /  80  30  10   0
Mount Ida AR      49  66  50  70 /  50  20   0   0
Mountain Home AR  46  59  49  66 /  90  60  10   0
Newport AR        51  52  49  67 /  90  70  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     54  59  51  70 /  80  40  10   0
Russellville AR   50  64  50  70 /  70  40   0   0
Searcy AR         53  56  50  68 /  90  60  10   0
Stuttgart AR      54  56  51  68 /  80  50  10   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Baxter-Boone-
Fulton-Izard-Marion-Newton-Searcy-Sharp-Stone.

&&

Short Term...Brown / Long Term...46

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A strong storm system system and its associated cold front will move
through the region today and tonight. Strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms will be possible as the cold front moves through the
area.

There is a enhanced risk of severe weather over southern arkansas
with a slight risk over the central part of the state. The main
concern at this time is damaging winds and large hail but a tornado
can not be discounted.

Heavy rain in excess of two inches or more is possible over the
south which could lead to localized flooding. While amounts across
the north are not expected to be as high, any additional rain will
only increase flooding and river flooding concerns as the ground
remains saturated. Right now, an additional one to two inches of
additional rain can not be ruled out over the north.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

The upper level part of the storm system will move across the state
on Thursday with continuing chances of rain. Gusty northwest winds
in excess of 25 mph at times will develop behind the departing
system with much cooler temperatures expected.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Wednesday afternoon to evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1124 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     HAIL             5 NE MALVERN            34.42N 92.75W
05/03/2017  E1.00 INCH       HOT SPRING         AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

55

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1141 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

ARZ043>046-055>057-062>064-031730-
Pulaski AR-Grant AR-Cleveland AR-Lincoln AR-Lonoke AR-Arkansas AR-
Prairie AR-Saline AR-Dallas AR-Jefferson AR-
1141 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLEVELAND...SOUTHWESTERN
PRAIRIE...LONOKE...GRANT...EASTERN DALLAS...JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN
SALINE...WESTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1141 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Otter Creek to near Cane Creek to 6 miles
southeast of Carthage to 6 miles north of Bearden. Movement was east
at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Little Rock...                    North Little Rock...
Pine Bluff...                     Sherwood...
Jacksonville...                   West Little Rock...
Bryant...                         Downtown Little Rock...
Stuttgart...                      Sheridan...
Fordyce...                        Lonoke...
Star City...                      Rison...
Southwest Little Rock...          White Hall...
Shannon Hills...                  England...
Carlisle...                       Wrightsville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3491 9174 3448 9153 3404 9169 3381 9192
      3383 9271 3401 9255 3444 9242 3477 9254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 267DEG 40KT 3472 9244 3446 9231 3402 9246 3383
9264

Brown

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOT SPRINGS             34.50N  93.06W
05/03/2017                   GARLAND            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN HOT SPRINGS ACROSS ALL LANES
            OF TRAFFIC.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700159

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1204 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PINEY                   34.50N  93.13W
05/03/2017                   GARLAND            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTION FOR LOCATION FLASH FLOODING IN PINEY... WEST
            OF HOT SPRINGS ACROSS ALL LANES OF TRAFFIC.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700159

CAVANAUGH

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