Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Little Rock, AR

886 
WGUS74 KLZK 040146
FFSLZK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
846 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

ARC019-025-039-051-053-059-069-085-103-119-125-040156-
/O.CAN.KLZK.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-170504T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cleveland AR-Clark AR-Lonoke AR-Grant AR-Dallas AR-Ouachita AR-
Jefferson AR-Garland AR-Saline AR-Pulaski AR-Hot Spring AR-
846 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CLEVELAND...CLARK...SOUTHWESTERN
LONOKE...GRANT...DALLAS...NORTHERN OUACHITA...WESTERN JEFFERSON...
GARLAND...SALINE...PULASKI AND HOT SPRING COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3378 9311 3381 9314 3380 9318 3385 9329
      3390 9330 3394 9335 3464 9331 3487 9221
      3481 9209 3454 9202 3408 9196 3386 9204
      3380 9258 3364 9274 3349 9312

$$

62

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
328 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday

GOES16 6.9 micron imagery shows an amplifying upper level pattern
over North America, with a deep trough digging through the
central/southern plain and associated surface low pressure system
in the ArkLaTex region.

In the near term...the aforementioned surface low will gradually
strengthen as it moves northeast across southern Arkansas. Showers
and thunderstorms continue to overspread the state with ample
upper lift as a result of DPVA with the digging trough and right-
entrance divergence aloft. As the system moved just a bit faster
than initially expected, the associated warm front has been unable
to make it into Arkansas, resulting in virtually non-existent
surface instability. Decent mid-level lapse rates this morning
resulted in a few elevated thunderstorms this morning...with some
marginally-severe hail. However, ongoing convection with this
slowing system has softened lapse rates such that thunderstorm
activity is gradually diminishing.

Unfortunately, with the gradual slowing of this system and ample
upper lift, localized heavy rainfall will fall across parts of the
state today. Some areas have already received up to three inches,
especially across portions of the Ouachitas and the I30 corridor
and another localized inch or two will be possible. In somewhat
good news, the heaviest rain should be south of I40... and not in
the upper Northeast Arkansas river basins where major flooding is
occurring.

Models are in very good agreement with the pattern over the rest
of the short term period. As the deepening trough reaches the
Mid- South region, the upper low is expected to cut off from the
main flow. As this happens, the associated surface low is expected
to slow further. This will result in a very cool period for
Arkansas for a couple of days. Wrap around moisture from the
surface low will result in low cloud cover and possible some light
rain/drizzle over the northeast quadrant of the state on
Thursday.

Cloud cover will gradually decrease west to east on Thursday as
drier air begins to filter into the low levels. Areas which
receive insolation (probably the west), by mid day, will likely
get into the low to mid 60s. Elsewhere, under cloud cover,
temperatures will be well below average... from the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

By Friday, much drier air will have advected into the boundary
layer... resulting in much drier conditions. Even with plenty of
clear skies // insolation, Friday will be rather cool with stiff
northerly winds and very cool airmass in place.

&&

.Long Term...Friday Night through Wednesday

A storm system will be exiting to the east as the extended period
begins. After that, another big system will dig its heels into the
western United States. As this happens, a huge ridge of high
pressure will build over the Plains, and will inch toward Arkansas.
This will result in a mostly dry forecast.

A northwest flow around the ridge will drive a cold front into the
region this weekend from the Ohio Valley. The front will probably
not go all the way through, and moisture will be limited. No rain is
expected at this time. The front will lift back to the north early
next week as the ridge becomes more dominant.

Temperatures will be below average through Saturday, but will warm
to at/above average levels thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     51  55  50  67 /  90  70  10   0
Camden AR         52  67  51  73 /  70  20   0   0
Harrison AR       46  61  47  65 /  70  40  10   0
Hot Springs AR    52  65  52  71 /  60  30   0   0
Little Rock   AR  53  59  51  70 /  80  50  10   0
Monticello AR     55  61  52  69 /  80  30  10   0
Mount Ida AR      49  66  50  70 /  50  20   0   0
Mountain Home AR  46  59  49  66 /  90  60  10   0
Newport AR        51  52  49  67 /  90  70  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     54  59  51  70 /  80  40  10   0
Russellville AR   50  64  50  70 /  70  40   0   0
Searcy AR         53  56  50  68 /  90  60  10   0
Stuttgart AR      54  56  51  68 /  80  50  10   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Baxter-Boone-
Fulton-Izard-Marion-Newton-Searcy-Sharp-Stone.

&&

Short Term...Brown / Long Term...46

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A strong storm system system and its associated cold front will move
through the region today and tonight. Strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms will be possible as the cold front moves through the
area.

There is a enhanced risk of severe weather over southern arkansas
with a slight risk over the central part of the state. The main
concern at this time is damaging winds and large hail but a tornado
can not be discounted.

Heavy rain in excess of two inches or more is possible over the
south which could lead to localized flooding. While amounts across
the north are not expected to be as high, any additional rain will
only increase flooding and river flooding concerns as the ground
remains saturated. Right now, an additional one to two inches of
additional rain can not be ruled out over the north.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

The upper level part of the storm system will move across the state
on Thursday with continuing chances of rain. Gusty northwest winds
in excess of 25 mph at times will develop behind the departing
system with much cooler temperatures expected.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Wednesday afternoon to evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
442 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WHELEN SPRINGS          33.83N  93.13W
05/03/2017                   CLARK              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 53 IN WHELEN
            SPRINGS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700163

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
444 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DES ARC                 34.98N  91.50W
05/03/2017                   PRAIRIE            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2.5 FEET OVER HIGHWAY 7 IN DES ARC. VARIOUS ROADS IN
            DALLAS COUNTY HAVE 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700164

CROSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
502 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

ARZ032-033-043>045-055-056-032245-
Pulaski AR-Grant AR-White AR-Lonoke AR-Saline AR-Faulkner AR-
Jefferson AR-
502 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LONOKE...NORTHEASTERN GRANT...
SOUTHEASTERN FAULKNER...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHWESTERN
WHITE...EAST CENTRAL SALINE AND PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 501 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Roland in Pulaski County to West Little
Rock to near Cane Creek. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Little Rock...                    North Little Rock...
Sherwood...                       Jacksonville...
Cabot...                          West Little Rock...
Maumelle...                       Downtown Little Rock...
Lonoke...                         North Little Rock Airport...
Little Rock AFB...                Southwest Little Rock...
Beebe...                          Ward...
Shannon Hills...                  England...
Mayflower...                      Wrightsville...
Austin in Lonoke County...        Argenta...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 9195 3488 9187 3445 9172 3439 9236
      3493 9254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 255DEG 26KT 3488 9246 3477 9242 3448 9232

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
520 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SULPHUR SPRINGS         34.18N  92.13W
05/03/2017                   JEFFERSON          AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ALONG CAMDEN CUTOFF ROAD AND
            SULPHUR SPRINGS ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700165

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
522 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DALARK                  34.03N 92.88W
05/03/2017                   DALLAS             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2.5 FEET OVER HIGHWAY 7 IN DALARK. VARIOUS ROADS IN
            DALLAS COUNTY HAVE 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE ROAD.

&&

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ROCK CREEK              34.76N  92.43W
05/03/2017                   PULASKI            AR   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS CHENAL PARKWAY IN WEST
            LITTLE ROCK

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700166

44