Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
210 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Hi-res models are generally in good agreement with thunderstorms
across mainly the northeastern third of the forecast area this
afternoon. This area is downstream from a large upper low centered
over New Mexico, has a healthy amount of low level moisture that
remains in place despite the early morning MCS that moved across
the area, and has an elevated mixed layer spreading northward from
the Permian Basin. Dry low level air working northward will help
concentrate chances to the northeast, although low level moisture
may hang on across the far southeast part of the forecast area.
Models have been consistent in moving storms out of the area by
00Z. That timing seems about right, but with the upper low still
the west it seems prudent to hang onto a 20-30 percent chance
mention this evening.

The upper low is progged to move across the Panhandle on Thursday.
There could be a few showers try to develop as far south as the
northern row of the forecast area, but all the guidance is keeping
precip to the north of us, and we will maintain a dry forecast at
this time. The low moving out onto the High Plains will usher a
cold front south through the forecast area during the day, setting
up a pretty good gradient in the high temperature forecast with
lower 70s northwest to upper 80s southeast.

With the upper low moving to our east Friday, a quieter period
will be ushered in. Surface ridging will settle in across the area
Friday with light north winds favoring cooler than normal
temperatures in line with MOS guidance. However, a quick rebound
to above normal temperatures is expected for the weekend as upper
level ridging moves overhead.

Finally, there remains the possiblity of an active dryline Sunday
through Wednesday with the ridge moving to the east and cyclonic
flow moving over the west. There is no strong signal in the models
yet, so will continue to favor slight chance wording for mainly
the eastern half of the area.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1140 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

TXZ021>044-111645-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1140 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across
the southeastern Texas Panhandle, the Rolling Plains, and
northeastern South Plains mainly after 1 pm. These storms will
bring the threat of large hail up to baseball size, damaging
winds to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall with
localized street flooding will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across
portions of the area mainly in the afternoon and evening hours
starting Sunday afternoon through Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and
evening across the southeastern Texas Panhandle, Rolling Plains,
and northeastern South Plains.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
821 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     WALL CLOUD       4 SSE BLEDSOE           33.57N 102.99W
05/09/2017                   COCHRAN            TX   STORM CHASER

            ROTATING WALL CLOUD... HALF WAY TO THE GROUND.

0730 PM     HAIL             5 S ENOCHS              33.80N 102.76W
05/09/2017  E1.25 INCH       COCHRAN            TX   STORM CHASER

0730 PM     HAIL             4 S ENOCHS              33.82N 102.76W
05/09/2017  M2.50 INCH       COCHRAN            TX   STORM CHASER

0731 PM     HAIL             3 NW RHEA               34.70N 102.99W
05/09/2017  E2.00 INCH       PARMER             TX   FIRE DEPT

            HAIL STACKED UP ON ROOF.

0746 PM     TORNADO          5 SW BULA               33.86N 102.70W
05/09/2017                   BAILEY             TX   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF TORNADO EAST OF ENOCHS. SEVERAL PHOTOS BY STORM
            CHASERS VI SM.

0818 PM     HAIL             6 NNE BULA              33.99N 102.60W
05/09/2017  E2.00 INCH       LAMB               TX   STORM CHASER

0825 PM     FLOOD            3 NE ENOCHS             33.90N 102.72W
05/09/2017                   BAILEY             TX   STORM CHASER

            ROAD FLOODED ALONG WITH HAIL SEVERAL INCHES DEEP.

0829 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 SSW SUDAN             34.03N 102.55W
05/09/2017                   LAMB               TX   STORM CHASER

            POOR CONTRAST PHOTO SHARED VIA SM.

0845 PM     HAIL             2 NW SUDAN              34.09N 102.55W
05/09/2017  E1.25 INCH       LAMB               TX   STORM CHASER

            ESTIMATED FROM PHOTO SHARED ON SM.

0845 PM     TORNADO          1 W SUDAN               34.07N 102.54W
05/09/2017                   LAMB               TX   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OF ONLY A FEW SECONDS. REPORT VIS SM.

0932 PM     TORNADO          10 SSW LEHMAN           33.49N 102.86W
05/09/2017                   COCHRAN            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROPE TORNADO JUST WEST OF LOCATION... WEST OF 214.

1047 PM     HAIL             MULESHOE                34.23N 102.73W
05/09/2017  E1.75 INCH       BAILEY             TX   PUBLIC

            LOTS OF QUARTER AND SMALLER HAIL. LARGEST GOLF BALL
            SIZE. PICTURES AND REPORT VIA SM.

1051 PM     HAIL             MULESHOE                34.23N 102.73W
05/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       BAILEY             TX   PUBLIC

            HAIL SLIGHTLY BIGGER THAN A QUARTER.

1054 PM     HAIL             LITTLEFIELD             33.92N 102.33W
05/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       LAMB               TX   POLICE DEPT

            HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

1120 PM     HAIL             5 ENE FIELDTON          34.07N 102.14W
05/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       LAMB               TX   STORM CHASER

1213 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MULESHOE                34.23N 102.73W
05/10/2017                   BAILEY             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER COMPLETELY COVERING HIGHWAY 84 THROUGH TOWN.

0351 AM     TSTM WND GST     NEW HOME                33.33N 101.91W
05/10/2017  M64 MPH          LYNN               TX   MESONET

            MEASURED BY WEST TEXAS MESONET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700171 LUB1700172 LUB1700173 LUB1700174 LUB1700175
LUB1700176 LUB1700177 LUB1700178 LUB1700179 LUB1700181 LUB1700180
LUB1700185 LUB1700183 LUB1700182 LUB1700184 LUB1700186 LUB1700187

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